How are Team GB doing wrt the expected / optimistic medal tally?

[belboid]

they've created more events for women in a few sports, which means they are well more to the fore as well. about time too

 

[kabbes]

I just saw the British woman get the Olympic record in the dressage on BBC1. It was extraordinary stuff. Based on seeing that, I think the equestrianism target is well in hand. (And of course, it's the British women again...)

 

[Maltin]

Looking at that image, we're currently already ahead of where GB were medal wise by day 8. However, Looking at those calendars for where the finals occur in 2008 and 2012, I can see one explanation for the apparent improvement. In 2008, the rowing finals were held over two days, 8 and 9, where there was a big increase in our medal count. This time they've been spread over 4 days (days 5 to 8) so a lot of that success has been brought forward. Adjusting for that probably brings the success more in line. Whatever way you look at it though, I still think our athletes are doing very well.

 

[twistedAM]

Pendleton's gold in the kierin was unexpected.

 

[hegley]

Murray's guaranteed a medal in the tennis - and he even smiled!

 

[The Boy]

Pendleton's gold in the kierin was unexpected.

really? One of the nailed on certs I would have thought?

 

[Maltin]

really? One of the nailed on certs I would have thought?

I don't know anything about cycling but the detailed Telegraph predictions someone posted earlier had her down to only win a medal at the sprint and team sprint. Think someone said the predictor doesn't know anything though.

 

[twistedAM]

really? One of the nailed on certs I would have thought?

Nah, it's her weaker event. Meares was bookies favourite for both that and the sprint.
Meares looks well short on pace but that Chinese girl could give Vicky a run for the sprint gold.

 

[sunny jim]

Jessica Ennis is over 100 points above anybody else tonight -

 

[mrs quoad]

Jessica Ennis is over 100 points above anybody else tonight -

How many metres of javelin is that?

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

are all the events in the same order as 4 years ago though?

Looking at that image, we're currently already ahead of where GB were medal wise by day 8. However, Looking at those calendars for where the finals occur in 2008 and 2012, I can see one explanation for the apparent improvement. In 2008, the rowing finals were held over two days, 8 and 9, where there was a big increase in our medal count. This time they've been spread over 4 days (days 5 to 8) so a lot of that success has been brought forward. Adjusting for that probably brings the success more in line. Whatever way you look at it though, I still think our athletes are doing very well.

I suspected it wasn't quite as straightforward and people need to hold back on their excitement

 

[sunny jim]

100 points ahead is our Jess

 

[sunny jim]

#theonlywayisennis

 

[Hollis]

Anorak time - Medals divided by population size...

Country Medals Pop (m)
China 42 1347 3.118040089
US 43 314 13.69426752
Britain 22 62 35.48387097
South Korea 16 49 32.65306122

See so currently "Team GB" are the most successful nation in the world (okay I've only analysed the top 4). The real battle is between "Team GB" and South Korea. (The taffs would appreciate this one..)

 

[Hollis]

Obv any country with a population size under say 10m needs to be ignored..

 

[Gingerman]

Amazing to think that the UK finished in 36th place with just 15 medals at the 1996 games in Atlanta,just shows what a bit of decent well targetted funding can do.Questions already being asked in Australia about their poor performances at this Olympics.

 

[Maltin]

Amazing to think that the UK finished in 36th place with just 15 medals at the 1996 games in Atlanta,just shows what a bit of decent well targetted funding can do.Questions already being asked in Australia about their poor performances at this Olympics.

I do wonder whether we might be in a similar position in 12 years time once our Olympics have passed. It would be good if we do continue to invest in sport but once these games are over, there may be less incentive to do so.

 

[Maltin]

Anorak time - Medals divided by population size...

Country Medals Pop (m)
China 42 1347 3.118040089
US 43 314 13.69426752
Britain 22 62 35.48387097
South Korea 16 49 32.65306122

See so currently "Team GB" are the most successful nation in the world (okay I've only analysed the top 4). The real battle is between "Team GB" and South Korea. (The taffs would appreciate this one..)

The Guardian's website allows you to sort by things like this. New Zealand are currently number 1 by population. GB 13th. Australia 5th. Will try to see where we are in countries with populations over 10m.

 

[Maltin]

Obv any country with a population size under say 10m needs to be ignored..

Ignoring those, the top 3 by medals divided by population are:

Australia
Cuba
GB

Over 5m

Australia
Hungary
Cuba
Denmark
Belarus
Slovakia
GB

 

[Gingerman]

I do wonder whether we might be in a similar position in 12 years time once our Olympics have passed. It would be good if we do continue to invest in sport but once these games are over, there may be less incentive to do so.

True,Australia won 58 medals at the Sydney Olympics,16 gold,25 silver and 17 bronze,we're half way through this one and they've only won 14 medals so far,ob every host country wants to win as many as they can but once the circus has moved on to other cities over the coming years will the desire and incentive to invest be the same?

 

[Maltin]

If just focusing on golds per population, GB are currently ranked 10th. Excluding countries with populations under 10m, they are 5th.

Kazakhstan
South Korea
Cuba
North Korea
GB

 

[butchersapron]

True,Australia won 58 medals at the Sydney Olympics,16 gold,25 silver and 17 bronze,we're half way through this one and they've only won 14 medals so far,ob every host country wants to win as many as they can but once the circus has moved to another city will the desire and incentive be the same?

...and the funding.

 

[Maltin]

Rather than population,a larger influence might be the team size.

looking at the 6 biggest teams, GB is 5th

China 42 medals - 371 athletes
USA 43 - 531
Russia 23 - 435
Germany 20 - 395
GB 22 - 556
Australia 14 - 413

3rd if just on golds

China
USA
GB
Germany
Russia
Australia

 

[butchersapron]

Team size is partially determined by population.

 

[Maltin]

Team size is partially determined by population.

Yes, and for these Olympics at least, GB's is disproportionately high.

 

[Maltin]

Australia's team size is pretty huge based on population too.

 

[butchersapron]

How many competitors did aus have in Sydney? China in Beijing?

 

[Maltin]

Looking at the comparison of team size to population, the top 3 are:

Cook Islands 8 athletes - 20k population
Tuvalu 3 - 10k
Palau 5 - 20k

Of the larger teams:

New Zealand 196 - 4.4m
Croatia 110 - 4.4m
Denmark 115 - 5.5m
Australia 413 - 22.3m

 

[Maltin]

How many competitors did aus have in Sydney? China in Beijing?

i wasn't saying disproportionate for a host nation. China had a whopping 639 athletes last time. Quite a drop from that (which I assume was the most) to only 371 this time.

 

[Maltin]

Largest teams for 2000, 2008 and 2012 Olympics

GB 332, 312, 556
China 271, 639, 371
Australia 632, 433, 413
USA 586, 596, 531
Russia 435, 467, 435
Germany 422, 463, 395
France 336, 323, 335
Japan 266, 351, 303
Spain 326, 286, 289
Italy 361, 344, 281
Canada 294, 332, 279