ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Unless the subject is that embarrassing rash on the end of your todger.
House price inflation at 26%. Avg London House £400K. How long can this really go on?
- Thread starter ItWillNeverWork
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Unless the subject is that embarrassing rash on the end of your todger.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
funnily enough the last bit of cockrot I contracted manifested in a rash that so closely resembled Mark Thatcher I nearly sent a pic to the newspapers.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Thought this chart from last year might be interesting.
So whilst in the rest of the UK house prices compared to earnings have not even returned to their 2008 level, in London they are now higher than even N.Ireland was just before everything crashed. Obviously London has far more capacity to surpass the levels of N.Ireland (not many Russian oligarchs or Qatari Sheikhs were dipping into NI, as far as I know), and so I don't think the bubble London is about to burst any time soon. But looking at the rate of change of prices in London, it does appear that it's beginning to turn exponential. Now if you look at what happens any time that London prices get too far ahead of the rest of the country, it doesn't bode well.
So whilst in the rest of the UK house prices compared to earnings have not even returned to their 2008 level, in London they are now higher than even N.Ireland was just before everything crashed. Obviously London has far more capacity to surpass the levels of N.Ireland (not many Russian oligarchs or Qatari Sheikhs were dipping into NI, as far as I know), and so I don't think the bubble London is about to burst any time soon. But looking at the rate of change of prices in London, it does appear that it's beginning to turn exponential. Now if you look at what happens any time that London prices get too far ahead of the rest of the country, it doesn't bode well.
ChrisFilter
Like a boss.
What does happen?
pinkmonkey
2.4 hour party person
Our friends went to view a 'warehouse apartment' in the warehouse district in Tottenham.
Now this 'district', my other, local friend, was possibly one of the first dozen people to start living in a warehouse in Tottenham, in 2006, paying £300 a month including all bills for a vast space, each person had their own mezzanine room, the shared space was so big, they had a stage and would put gigs on.
There are now 2000 people in these warehouses and the manor house warehouses and the greedy fuckers have arrived and are cashing in.
What our friends saw was a space above a garage, divided into 10 bare, unpainted plywood 'boxes' starting at £1000 a month for a box. Not all had windows. The shared kitchen did not even have proper storage, you were each given a large plastic box for your food.
None of these places have planning permission, there are bad fires from time to time, but in the less profit driven spaces, they give valuable space and cheap rent to freelancers who work in the arts. Haringey wants to evict and redevelop. No prizes for guessing how this will end up.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Crash!
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Half a million quid for...a garage 
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/201...mansion_n_5566387.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
That mansion seems like a bargain though. You can pay that much for a big four bedroom house with land in that part of the world
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/201...mansion_n_5566387.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
That mansion seems like a bargain though. You can pay that much for a big four bedroom house with land in that part of the world
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
gf lives in a part-ownership flat (part of the affordable housing provision, though still out of reach to most people) that she bought her bit of three years ago. On the 40% that she owns she's made about seventy grand in that time - money made not by grafting, just by sitting on it. That'll buy you a proper house outright up where I live! Doesn't seem right somehow. She's thinking of taking the cash and bailing out of London, but I'm not sure that means she can ever go back. It can't go on, can it?
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Lots of people will be selling up and fleeing London, thus pushing up prices in the rest of the country.
I wouldn't worry about being able to go back if I was her, another five years of this madness and London will be the world's most prestigious ghost town.
I've been thinking that for a good fifteen years now.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
We do have the internet in Devon you know
It's the upkeep costs that'll be the issue. But it'd be great for a housing co-op type thing, split the mortgage and the upkeep costs between a dozen families and it'd be cheaper than a two-bed semi. I guess estate agents only ever think of a mansion being suitable for one greedy twat and his prostitute collection.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
That'll be sold as a 'benefit' to the rest of the country, won't it? Trickledown economics.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Nobody is stupid enough to think that Londoners rocking up in their neighbourhood will benefit them. You might as well try and sell the economic benefits of a plague of locusts.
London has always had a transient population, there's nothing new in people moving out to buy cheaper property, especially once they have children.
The population isn't going to fall though, it keeps growing and all the projections show it will continue to do so. I suspect any fall in prices will be short lived and the future is more and more overcrowding.
The population isn't going to fall though, it keeps growing and all the projections show it will continue to do so. I suspect any fall in prices will be short lived and the future is more and more overcrowding.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Right now, a good investment (as opposed to domestic) strategy might well be to cash out of the London market, move somewhere cheaper, and stick the balance away in a secure savings account (watch out for deposit limits in case the bank goes tits up). Then when the market tumbles, that element of their London equity that's now sitting in the bank didn't tumble with the market, so, even if they've taken a hit on their new (cheaper) house, they're still better off than if they'd weathered the hit in London.
At which point, when the market looks like it's bottoming out, they stick their equity down on another, now much cheaper for the same thing, house in London, sell up wherever they are, and find they now own (more of) a house at a more realistic price.
We do have the internet in Devon you know
Glad to hear it!
Seriously, though, with its five acres of grounds, that house will probably be a long way from the exchange and therefore have pitiful speed. OTOH if you're spending £600K on a mansion like that with its associated upkeep costs, you can probably afford the £10K++ that installing a dedicated fibre link will cost.
Yes.
There's a risk to that strategy though. A fair few posters on housepricecrash claimed to have done that back in 2006/7 and it didn't exactly work out for them..
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Edited - wrong thread!
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Yes, that's always a risk. It's a sad state affairs when you have to think like a bloated plutocrat in order to get (and keep) a roof over your head, and it's quite understandable that most of us will just tend to batten down the hatches and weather whatever comes our way.
Innit, that's where we've got it all wrong, thinking of homes as commodities.
ska invita
back on the other side
BUMP
With the news that we now have negative inflation in the UK, i take it that means they don't include housing costs in the inflation figure - Id love to know what inflation was if that was included (i guess its an awkward one to quantify)
With the news that we now have negative inflation in the UK, i take it that means they don't include housing costs in the inflation figure - Id love to know what inflation was if that was included (i guess its an awkward one to quantify)
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
You're right. CPI doesn't include housing.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Housing market is slowing down too, by the way. An interesting time for the government to shrink the economy with a new bout of austerity. Expect the triple-dip recession this year.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Apparently it's gone down because there's been a drop in the cost of air travel amongst other things. No doubt great news for all those jet-setting zero-hours folk and people that can barely afford rent as they fly around the globe on yet another holiday.
youngian
Well-Known Member
London should have full autonomy over housing powers including planning permission for a second home and high taxes on empty property for overseas investors. It won't be popular with some but a Tory BTL landlord is the sort of person who would be first to tell you we need a government to take tough decisions and put an end to free lunches.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Plenty of non-overseas investors buying these places too, singling them out seems a bit like scapegoating. We have plenty of homegrown parasites to curtail too. We need additional stamp duty of 5% for each additional home bought over and above your main residence, amongst other things. That or some 2x4, coach bolts and rope.
Is that air travel for people or freight? Or both?
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