House price crash
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A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
I’m worried, we brought our new house in my wife’s home town, which happens to be one of the last ‘non-gentrified’ places on the Norfolk coast. But this week ‘ our’ beach been ‘declared’ the best in England. I mean it is a lovely beach but …
Yes, that’s what I was intending to say.
Idaho
blah blah blah
The "international property market" is money laundering.
Idaho
blah blah blah
Hmmm... Wasn't buying into the house price crash talk, but a huge number of houses have gone on the market down here in the last few days 
During the frenzy last spring, there was barely anything on the market, but plenty of people wanting to move. Plenty of supply - how many buyers show up?
During the frenzy last spring, there was barely anything on the market, but plenty of people wanting to move. Plenty of supply - how many buyers show up?
Idaho
blah blah blah
If this is the case, then we won't see a crash. Crashes occur when people have to sell.
Elpenor
a clown’s heart and a mandolin
Already a thing in parts of Devon for some properties, a section something or other means you need 3 years residence to buy.
Sparkle Motion
Well-Known Member
The most you can hope for is temporary price stagnation. I’m old enough to have seen the cycles and even seen a real crash. Even then, all that happened was the BTL landlords pounced and made a killing. Last time price rises stalled, one developer near me just delayed building the 900 home development they had permission for. The big few developers will never allow a crash, and as someone has already mentioned, people are not desperate to sell. With unstoppable population growth and a rigged market, the days of normal people buying a house with zero deposit and a bit of overtime have gone forever. I’ve moved up the ladder a couple of times and will downsize so my child can afford to buy, but not everyone has that luxury.
bellaozzydog
rolling turds in glitter
106
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
So no outsiders?
bimble
floofy
i'm climbing down a bit from my dramatic predictions of the other week, because i think people will only sell if they need to and that there'll be fewer of those than i imagined.
Still reckon by end of next year be'll be down around 30% on average but its hard to measure isn't it, every home being different and every one worth only what the next person will pay for it.
Still reckon by end of next year be'll be down around 30% on average but its hard to measure isn't it, every home being different and every one worth only what the next person will pay for it.
One thing that makes it so difficult to measure is how to interpret the numbers you do measure. Like, suppose that sold prices are down by 30%, and suppose even that you somehow can determine that it is a like-for-like comparison of types of house. Even then, if it is accompanied by the predicted volume freeze, does that 30% measurement really mean that ”house prices” have dropped by 30%? Or does it just mean that you are only seeing the segment of the market that are desperate to sell? Statistically, you are seeing the mean of a truncated distribution, which is smaller than the mean of the full distribution.
To make that concrete, let’s say that there are 11 houses that are identical but the owners are willing to accept prices on those houses that range from 90k to 110k. So person 1 will accept 90k, person 2 will accept 92k etc (person 6 accepts 100k, person 11 accepts 110k). The average market price for the house if there are 11 matching buyers is 100k. (If the market is supersaturated with buyers, the market price will be at least 110k, because buyers will all have to offer at the top price at minimum.)
Now suppose there aren’t enough buyers but that the sellers also aren’t willing to compromise. We drop to just 3 buyers, who pay 90, 92 and 94, for an average of 92k. This appears in the data as an 8% drop in “market price”. But that 8% drop doesn’t really reflect an actual change of individual valuation or willingness to buy or sell. It just reflects the disappearance of 70% of the marketplace.
bimble
floofy
yep, exactly.
And this is always the case isn't it, so when we see a graph or article saying 'house prices have risen by .. %' its only really a mesaure of what happened with the particular homes that have sold during said period, generalising doesnt really make sense.
So like, the reported giant increase in 'house prices' during the pandemic, those will only tell a story about what people were willing to pay for the particular homes that were actually sold during said period, (in this case ones with gardens etc), and its a sort of nonsense to think the same rise applied even in theory to all homes, to city flats on the 17th floor with no balcony for instance.
And this is always the case isn't it, so when we see a graph or article saying 'house prices have risen by .. %' its only really a mesaure of what happened with the particular homes that have sold during said period, generalising doesnt really make sense.
So like, the reported giant increase in 'house prices' during the pandemic, those will only tell a story about what people were willing to pay for the particular homes that were actually sold during said period, (in this case ones with gardens etc), and its a sort of nonsense to think the same rise applied even in theory to all homes, to city flats on the 17th floor with no balcony for instance.
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Elpenor
a clown’s heart and a mandolin
I can only really comment around the confines of my own property search a year or so ago which was defined by area, price and size of property.
I saw it for a few properties only, and think they were all in or around the Dartmoor national park boundary. Very much the exception rather than the rule.
baldrick
hmmmmm
Thought that was for affordable housing in new developments?
bellaozzydog
rolling turds in glitter
Idaho
blah blah blah
There's also a potential to cherry pick the time range. Last June the Devon market was positively unhinged. So crazy that I know a couple of people who put their houses on the market, got an immediate bidding war and offer well over the already inflated asking, and then couldn't get anywhere to move to. Measuring from the frothy heights of that will inevitably show a large drop, but is that a meaningful number?
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
I’d have to get more data for that. It’s funny but watching Bourdain series from several years ago the external investors buying all the luxury pads and properties seems to be a defining issue of the 2010-20 era globally
newme
Giant in Pastyland now
My best chance of owning a home is buying our council house. Which pisses me off. I can't buy otherwise but it takes rental stock away. Failing that tho we live here forever anyway and simply pay rent so what's the difference until its 60 years from now? Except building some money to pass on.
They build plenty but no proper council houses. Fucks sake it's not complicated. They rejected a 100% social/affordable development nearby. Only one I ever saw outright refused. While the village gets stocked past the school limit and they lob on 3 more 55+ estates. Daft. Now nearby places can't use the school and have to drive 3 times further. Guy who could see the school had to appeal to get his daughter in. He's like 20 seconds from.us, and closer.....
bellaozzydog
rolling turds in glitter
I’m explaining the numbers for group sharing a mortgage with some 25 year olds I know, it’s the only possible way they can get away from the insane rent trap.
Smallish three bed house with three going in on the deposit and mortgage halves the monthly outgoings per person versus standard local rent per room
They are just going to have to be imaginative to find the 7-10 grand deposit each as there’s no bank of mum and dad
Seems like the only way forward
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SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Some people need to move to the countryside to replace those growing up and moving away. Otherwise it's just useless old folk everywhere.
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
This is interesting. Halifax says prices are rising their fastest since June, which is at odds with Nationwide which says prices are falling at their fastest pace since 2012.
Cloo
Banana for scale
There's a notable drop in For Sale signs around here and I got a phone message the other week from the agents who sold us this place 8 years ago, presumably wanting to ask if there's any chance we want to sell up. I'm guessing they're going through their books from 5+ years ago in the hope that someone might be thinking of selling.
bellaozzydog
rolling turds in glitter
Interesting different here they are popping up everywhere in my town after months where they were getting sold before they got the for sale sign up
It’s a seaside tourist town so got a high density of rental/holiday let stuff. Think a fair few landlords are cashing in/get out
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Cloo
Banana for scale
And they've kind of overexpanded development in that vein now as they're having to reduce the price of lots of 'luxury' flats in Battersea and Vauxhall. Because the fact is people with that kind of money want Belgravia, Fitzrovia and K&C daahling, not Vauxhall and Battersea.
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