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Global financial system implosion begins

Looks like we've ridden it out ok. Was scary at times but now we've pretty much unravelled all our positions and are sitting waiting for Xmas then start back up in the New Year... 2 months doss time with solidified performance/profit.

Just got to hope any performance fees due are able to be paid by clients :D
 
The Financial Crisis: Where Do We Go From Here?

Council of Foreign Relations Debate, interesting and very worrying stuff. :(

 
Re: Credit rating agencies.
There is a very strong case for them to be licensed and regulated.
I see no case for nationalisation.

So you would be happy for the banks to continue paying them, and see no conflict of interest?
 
'Kondratieff's Winter'

I was just reading an interview with Walter K. Eichelburg on that very thing:

http://en.epochtimes.com/n2/world/c...es-and-the-current-financial-crisis-6206.html <-- :eek:

While I agree with his analysis regarding hyperinflation, I have trouble seeing the 'crisis' as part of a 'natural economic cycle' because A) of the energy/resource issues we're facing; and B) there's nothing 'natural' about any of it.

If, as Doug Henwood and others suggest, the 'economic system' is to a large extent a mechanism for expropriating wealth from those with the least to the benefit of those with the most, the system can't really be said to be in 'crisis' for those at the top. Quite the opposite, really.

See the Goldman Sachs partners bonuses for details. :mad:
 
While the Kondriatieff Winter model is roughly right, there are a couple of things to remember:

1. These guys are selling an investment product in gold. While the wave pattern is correct, one of the key things to remember is that if enough people recognise and act in a certain way the micro patterning will change - i.e. if, as I suspect, this gains lots of currency with investors across the board, but they DON'T all bu gold, the shape and scale of the pattern could change

2. These guys are all uber bears, and they will be making money from a prolonged downturn, so it's also in their interest to talk the market down, thus increasing the chances of another KW wave being seen as 'correct'.

I would also point out that the K-wave doesn't explain Japan's 'lost decade' - zero growth, zero inflation, zero interest rates. BY the K-wave analysis there should have been movement in some direction, rather than the stagnation of the 00s decade where nothing happened!
 
John Bellamy Foster video clip:
http://links.org.au/node/704

What's clear is the global economic crisis and the world environmental crisis are not
mutually exclusive. A unifying, green 'New Deal' based on international
co-operation could help combat an escalation in the extinction of
species and delay the onset of the worst effects of climate change. It
would also mitigate the worst effects of this new, once-in-a-generation
global recession. We should all demand this of our governments.

There is also a need to formulate caring international agreements and
protocols on immigration and helping climate change refugees. This is
going to become increasingly important, particularly for Bangladesh,
over the next few decades.
 
Naomi Klein in today's Guardian

In the final days of the election many Republicans seem to have given up the fight for power. But don't be fooled: that doesn't mean they are relaxing. If you want to see real Republican elbow grease, check out the energy going into chucking great chunks of the $700bn bail-out out the door. At a recent Senate banking committee hearing, the Republican Bob Corker was fixated on this task, and with a clear deadline in mind: inauguration. "How much of it do you think may be actually spent by January 20 or so?" Corker asked Neel Kashkari, the 35-year-old former banker in charge of the bail-out.

When European colonialists realised that they had no choice but to hand over power to the indigenous citizens, they would often turn their attention to stripping the local treasury of its gold and grabbing valuable livestock. If they were really nasty, like the Portuguese in Mozambique in the mid-1970s, they poured concrete down the elevator shafts.

Nothing so barbaric for the Bush gang. Rather than open plunder, it prefers bureaucratic instruments, such as "distressed asset" auctions and the "equity purchase program". But make no mistake: the goal is the same as it was for the defeated Portuguese - a final, frantic looting of the public wealth before they hand over the keys to the safe.

How else to make sense of the bizarre decisions that have governed the allocation of the bail-out money? When the Bush administration announced it would be injecting $250bn into US banks in exchange for equity, the plan was widely referred to as "partial nationalisation" - a radical measure required to get banks lending again. Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, had seen the light, we were told, and was following the lead of Gordon Brown.

In fact, there has been no nationalisation, partial or otherwise. American taxpayers have gained no meaningful control over the banks, which is why the banks are free to spend the new money as they wish. At Morgan Stanley, it looks as if much of the windfall will cover this year's bonuses. Citigroup has been hinting it will use its $25bn buying other banks, while John Thain, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch, told analysts: "At least for the next quarter, it's just going to be a cushion." The US government, meanwhile, is reduced to pleading with the banks that they at least spend a portion of the taxpayer windfall for loans - officially, the reason for the entire programme.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/31/useconomy-banking
 
Yeah, the whole sorry saga has indeed been the biggest robbery in world history.

Reminds me the Aesop phrase:

"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office."
 
George Carlin:

But I'll tell you what they don't want... They don't want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don't want well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking. They're not interested in that. That doesn't help them. That's against their interests. They don't want people who are smart enough to sit around the kitchen table and figure out how badly they're getting fucked by a system that threw them overboard 30 fucking years ago.

You know what they want? Obedient workers – people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork but just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly shittier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, reduced benefits, the end of overtime and the vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it. And, now, they're coming for your Social Security. They want your fucking retirement money. They want it back, so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street. And you know something? They'll get it. They'll get it all, sooner or later, because they own this fucking place. It's a big club, and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club.
 
The Chinese want more say in the IMF apparently...

My favourite bit of the crisis so far is that the government has been scared into creating huge amounts of money, to bail out the banking system, which apparently cannot be allowed to fail, and now the banks are simply paying all the bonuses they agreed to, (see here).

As if it wasn't hypocritical enough to suddenly fail to accept the will of the market.

In the end of course someone will have to face the banks down on this - but I get the feeling that Brown and Darling don't have the balls.

Notice how the world is not ending, whilst we're waiting for them to 'sort' it - just a slowly descending market :)
 
LA Times article on factory closures in China:

Government statistics show that 67,000 factories of various sizes were shuttered in China in the first half of the year, said Cao Jianhai, an industrial economics researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. By year's end, he said, more than 100,000 plants will have closed. --

-- China's industrial decline is a main factor in the sharp economic slowdown of late. The nation's gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 9% in the third quarter, the lowest in five years and worse than what analysts had forecast. China's GDP expanded 11.9% last year. Now, economists worry that the one big remaining engine of global growth is rapidly losing steam.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-factory3-2008nov03,1,2982466.story
 
People in the west need to realise that there is high cost to low price. Buying things manufactured in many oriental states invariably means supporting a system that employes vast workforces, including children, living in tied slum accomodation and working like indentured slaves for pennies. Outsourcing vast tracts of a nations manufacturing industry abroad, and the balance of payments deficit that this creates, will ultimately bankrupt nations and companies in the blinkered grip of the cult of bottom line economics.

Revenge of the Left across the world
Whatever the exact result of the US elections tomorrow, we must assume that the whole governing machinery of Washington and the state capitols will soon be hostile to laissez-faire thinking...
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 3:39PM GMT 03 Nov 2008
Daily Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...575/Revenge-of-the-Left-across-the-world.html
 
It's what happens when you base so much on export led-growth and your customers suddenly don't have any cash innit?
 
In that it's not 'new' :D

:confused:Given that you; who reckons you would have been working in the Ministry of Truth, spent the last few months down playing the economic downturn. China downturn stories are only just emerging in the mainstream media, (I did hear one about lighter production a month back if I'm honest). They don't warrant a blithe dismissal.
 
:confused:Given that you; who reckons you would have been working in the Ministry of Truth, spent the last few months down playing the economic downturn. China downturn stories are only just emerging in the mainstream media, (I did hear one about lighter production a month back if I'm honest). They don't warrant a blithe dismissal.

The Telegraph is mainstream media, no? The lighter one was featured on Newsnight and The Daily Politics...

And my forecasting has been no better or worse than anyone elses. The world hasn't stopped, we still don't know what pattern this recession will take or indeed how long it will last. Besides, spinning the positive would be an ideal job for someone in the MoT/...

I would also point out that while lots of posters and commentators were banging on about new global orders, the rise of China etc I said that China would be in trouble too, which would knock on the rest of ASEAN/APAC so nerrr *blows raspberry* And do you know why? Because I was paying attention to news from China...
 
It's what happens when you base so much on export led-growth and your customers suddenly don't have any cash innit?

Yup.

But most peeps in China don't trust the social welfare infrastructure to take care of them. And if you're gonna have to pay for your own housing, healthcare, kids education, pension, etc, etc. it's really tough for the government to convince peeps not to save every possible penny and, rather, to splurge cash and loans on consumer goodies.


Peeps take care of themselves - consumerism is a newish fad in China.


Woof
 
I know what I am worried about, and right now I wouldn't be blowing raspberries about the predicament of the Chinese. (Now there's an security service that probably does read urban
Wave%20Hello.gif
.)

From a Western point of view, think the changes they want in the IMF are a btter offer than the next one that may hit the table.
 
I would also point out that while lots of posters and commentators were banging on about new global orders, the rise of China etc I said that China would be in trouble too, which would knock on the rest of ASEAN/APAC so nerrr *blows raspberry* And do you know why? Because I was paying attention to news from China...

I can't see this changing the inevitable rise of China to "superpower" status over the course of the next 50 years.

The balance of power will inevitably change.

:)


Woof
 
consumerism is a newish fad in China.

Not historically for urban China, but that's a whole other thread!!

I wouldn't be blowing raspberries about the predicament of the Chinese

I was blowing a raspberry at you :p:D;)

JD - the balance of power will change, it's inevitable. How it changes...well, China will be a superpower simply on the basis that it's 1/5-1/4 of the world's population but this assumes that environmental damage and economic disparity won't derail the economy.
 
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