gosub
~#
It won't do much for Merkel's election prospects mind.
Global financial system implosion begins
- Thread starter Falcon
- Start date
It won't do much for Merkel's election prospects mind.
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
If\when the London property-investment market turns south, the exit doors are narrow and the stampede for them will be bloody.
UK construction performance weakest for seven years in June
Brexit Is a Lehman Moment for European Banks
Londons high end property market functioned as a form of wealth store, like buying gold. People stuck money into London because they thought it was safe, if people start selling then there will be a rush to get out before the price crashes. This could cause a price crash in itself. It may not work that way but there will be a large amount of money in mortgages that could turn very sour. We are likely not looking at anything of the scale of the US housing market post 2006, but it will likely be a big hit for the UK financial sector and drying up of work building new properties will likely push construction into a deep recession with lots of job losses.
Also as so many firms are looking at moving some of their operations into EU countries over the coming years there will likely be a drop in demand for commercial floor space. This will see another sector of the building trade also drying up.
The loss in revenues and wages from these operations will do some harm to the economy of London and the nation.
One of the main reasons I think the tories are falling over themselves to play nice to the EU workers is if they start selling their properties and looking for work elsewhere it could bring a fair surge of property onto the market (a market people will likely be wary of jumping into) thus pushing down house prices, reducing the amount people can borrow against their houses, pushing people into negative equity and all the down side that comes with a biggish fall in house prices. They really need those people to continue to own\rent UK properties.
Perhaps we will escape with a couple of quarters of lower growth.
Perhaps things will get a bit more "interesting".
Standard Life suspends trading in UK property fund - BBC News
UK construction performance weakest for seven years in June
Brexit Is a Lehman Moment for European Banks
Londons high end property market functioned as a form of wealth store, like buying gold. People stuck money into London because they thought it was safe, if people start selling then there will be a rush to get out before the price crashes. This could cause a price crash in itself. It may not work that way but there will be a large amount of money in mortgages that could turn very sour. We are likely not looking at anything of the scale of the US housing market post 2006, but it will likely be a big hit for the UK financial sector and drying up of work building new properties will likely push construction into a deep recession with lots of job losses.
Also as so many firms are looking at moving some of their operations into EU countries over the coming years there will likely be a drop in demand for commercial floor space. This will see another sector of the building trade also drying up.
The loss in revenues and wages from these operations will do some harm to the economy of London and the nation.
One of the main reasons I think the tories are falling over themselves to play nice to the EU workers is if they start selling their properties and looking for work elsewhere it could bring a fair surge of property onto the market (a market people will likely be wary of jumping into) thus pushing down house prices, reducing the amount people can borrow against their houses, pushing people into negative equity and all the down side that comes with a biggish fall in house prices. They really need those people to continue to own\rent UK properties.
Perhaps we will escape with a couple of quarters of lower growth.
Perhaps things will get a bit more "interesting".
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Car Industry Faces Brexit Breakdown
People putting off a new car buy until things are clearer is natural and sensible. Just bad news for manufacturers.
Here is an example, their is an effort to get Euro denominated Clearing into Eurozone cities.
QuickTake Q&A: Brexit Puts Financial Clearing Work Up for Grabs
It will be months before we know who the PM is, let alone how the bargaining will progress. Why buy a new luxury car that will take years to pay off when you worry your job might be offshored?
The message I expect to rapidly emerge from the EU and the Government will amount to a shiny version of this.
Because the more people react to uncertainty by storing wealth for a rainy day or avoiding risks, the more those risks will become real. But that is the downside of our system.
Thanks Brexiters. Great job.
not-bono-ever
meh
There are alot of big projects in the clearing industry pipeline - Cameron and his lot have been courting the Chinese extensively in the past year or two- one flagship is the London-Shanghai connect program - allowing Brits to access the Chinese markets direct and vice versa.The LSE have a big team putting this together. The Elephant on the room was Luxembourg, where any old fixed income shite can be launched at a fraction of the cost of London- this is big money for overseas companies looking release debt into a wider market ( i.e China based). The likes of Euroclear are expecting a shift towards continental europe for their business
The PBoC discreetly relayed to the incumbents at #10 that a vote for Brexit would be considered a purposeful act of disruption to the global status Qou- the possible effects of this are self evident. The claims that the UK could forge a purposeful and leading economic / trade relationship withe PRC is no longer being as actively talked out in China. This is very worrying for a nation claiming the advantages of a life outside the Bloc.
The PBoC discreetly relayed to the incumbents at #10 that a vote for Brexit would be considered a purposeful act of disruption to the global status Qou- the possible effects of this are self evident. The claims that the UK could forge a purposeful and leading economic / trade relationship withe PRC is no longer being as actively talked out in China. This is very worrying for a nation claiming the advantages of a life outside the Bloc.
gosub
~#
Explains the hurry on the LSE / DB merger and Merkel going after Juncker
not-bono-ever
meh
Clearing is the hot topic at the minute, given the recognised ability for well structured clearing to assist in avoiding more systematic risk. The various regulatory want to get everything centrally cleared and are adding rules at every juncture - this is big business and very cut throat- the German entities are very arressive and have a long term plan to usurp the smaller and less liquid clearers.
gosub
~#
I was thinking more on the lines Germans are hedging (one foot EU other foot as potentially Swiss style regd) and Juncker is from Luxembourg...
Commission have been about as sensible so far as Farage has been tactful
I might owe Sir Jeremy Heywood an apology sometimew (the chefs don't know how long to rest meat)
Last edited:
not-bono-ever
meh
Have a looky at the £- being utterly thumped after the vacation
Carney is saying lower income households will be hit hardest, tightening of credit, house prices and property related shit will be hammered. Austerity programes will be back with a vengeance on the back of this I would expect - any fucking excuse - - and as we have seen elsewhere, once we accept austerity purges, you don't ever get back to where you were
At last we can export whatever we produce more cheaply now. Whatever the fuck we produce these days that is
Time I fucked off from this thread for good, it is depressing me
Carney is saying lower income households will be hit hardest, tightening of credit, house prices and property related shit will be hammered. Austerity programes will be back with a vengeance on the back of this I would expect - any fucking excuse - - and as we have seen elsewhere, once we accept austerity purges, you don't ever get back to where you were
At last we can export whatever we produce more cheaply now. Whatever the fuck we produce these days that is
Time I fucked off from this thread for good, it is depressing me
free spirit
more tea vicar?
where are we intending to export to?
We're soon likely to be losing tariff free access to a huge portion of our trading partners, so any benefit will be short lived and won't result in a consequent investment in machinery etc to increase production capacity, just temporarily maximising the productivity from current production facilities due to that medium to long term threat to exports.
ska invita
back on the other side
Deutche Bank are too big to fail. Germany will bail them out and ignore the EU rules on state aid.
"and in the darkness bind them"
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Nothing to do with the inherent instability of capitalism then.
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
All human systems are inherently unstable. The current instability is due to uncertainty from a specific decision. Choices have consequences.
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
The nature of these institutions is that if you want your money from them when there is market turbulence you have to get it out early because they will shut up early so it encourages people to pull money early and well, its a bit of a hair trigger. This also means they will have to be hawking parts of their portfolio to the market to "liquidise" there assets, turn it into hard currency, which in and off itself will create a bit of downward pressure on price for commercial property.
Its not that a big recession is guaranteed, but it suggests one is not out of the question. Service sector was very flat for June and most of that was pre Brexit. We are hovering close to contraction territory already, before all the uncertainty.
One can only hope that all parties will move quickly to show a deal will be quick in the coming and settle everyone down.
gosub
~#
piece was re edited @9pm. got worse.
Italian banks will begin failing soon under the staggering weight of the bad debt overhang from 2008[1]. That will tip over into the Deutsche Bank, which has been hovering around insolvency for years. Which will tip the French banking system.
The Autumn will be interesting.
[1] This week, the Italian Government arbitrarily revalued the Bank of Italy’s share capital from €156 thousand to €7.5 *billion*, then allowed the Central Bank to ‘buy’ €4.7 billion. This is pretty funky, even by post-2008 standards.
The Autumn will be interesting.
[1] This week, the Italian Government arbitrarily revalued the Bank of Italy’s share capital from €156 thousand to €7.5 *billion*, then allowed the Central Bank to ‘buy’ €4.7 billion. This is pretty funky, even by post-2008 standards.
gosub
~#
you got a source on that? best I could find was what they'd like to do.
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Hmmm some might say that a falling pound is really not all that likely to bring some magic boost in exports and balance of trade.
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
That first graph on the left looks like it says the opposite of your version? Generally, when the pound goes down, the net trade balance improves?
Do you know if this is all trade or just visibles?
teqniq
DisMembered
2hats
Dust.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
note the conflation of economics with human here. Its just natural process man. And those fucking chavs din't get it. You fucking eichmann
fredfelt
Mostly unknown member
It depends on how you look at Economics. It is a human discipline. Up until the 18th century it was considered part of philosophy. You can look at economics as the study of human relationships and relationships between ends and means. A social science. By no means I am saying it's a natural process, but I find economics most interesting when applied with philosophical insights, man.
I've looked and I can't find it (I was using an iPad on a train at the time) but it was either the FT or a summary of a meeting with senior city analysts that I was reading at the time. Apologies.
It's a social science - it's incapable of experimental falsification, so can't be considered a formal or hard science. A source of confusion has been economists futile attempts to treat it as one, the better to lend authority to whatever species of ideology has hijacked it, and envy of scientific colleagues academic salaries.
Similar threads
