Global financial system implosion begins

[DotCommunist]

If you get helicopter money, spend it on land you can cultivate. Seriously

if subsistence farming looms on the horizon I'd rather spend it on cyanide

 

[J Ed]

Helicopter money already forms part of the UK narrative, no? Just in a tightly controlled, unhelpful way. That's what the various Help To Buy schemes are.

Nah. It's too subtle to contradict the overall austerity narrative. When it is discussed as what it actually is, a stimulus measure, that discussion usually takes place in different publications to the ones pushing the 'if I have £10 and buy 3 pints of beer then I can't afford steak for tea' narrative.

 

[gosub]

Nah. It's too subtle to contradict the overall austerity narrative. When it is discussed as what it actually is, a stimulus measure, that discussion usually takes place in different publications to the ones pushing the 'if I have £10 and buy 3 pints of beer then I can't afford steak for tea' narrative.

The last ten fifteen pages or so: QE hasn't fixed anything, its just made the economic flying controls more mushy and at the same time fogged up the instruments so it harder to tell what's going on... Helicopter money and its that in spades. Concur that any actual amount you get might not even buy a square of turf.

 

[J Ed]

Well I enjoy playing videogames and reading novels in post-apocalyptic dystopian settings perhaps it will be fun in real life!

 

[ska invita]

its not impossible I dont think, but I think J Ed is right in that no one out of right governments wants to be the first and it does change the narrative and appear "weak" within their own narrative....there will definitely be a reluctance...also will it panic markets? who knows - it sounds like a vote winner to me though - free money! Id do it just before the election

 

[crossthebreeze]

If you get helicopter money, spend it on land you can cultivate. Seriously

You'd need to get a lot of helicopter money for that - farmland prices have doubled over the last five years, because of the various tax breaks and subsidies available for wealthy private investors.

 

[gosub]

You'd need to get a lot of helicopter money for that - farmland prices have doubled over the last five years, because of the various tax breaks and subsidies available for wealthy private investors.

How long are allotment waiting lists?

 

[DotCommunist]

How long are allotment waiting lists?

depends on your standing in the craft. wink nudge.

 

[hot air baboon]

.....funny the concept was invented by Thatcher's High-Priest Milton Friedman....to oleaginous spivs like Mandelson and Blair it means getting rich enough to have your own helicopter....

 

[J Ed]

.....funny the concept was invented by Thatcher's High-Priest Milton Friedman....to oleaginous spivs like Mandelson and Blair it means getting rich enough to have your own helicopter....

The ironic thing about that is that I have my own helicopter policy in regards to those war criminals but it's more widely associated with Argentina than Friedman.

 

[hot air baboon]

...well Pinochet was Friedman's original poster-boy...co-incidence I think not...

 

[J Ed]

George Osborne warns of further cuts as 'storm clouds' gather

What the fuck is left to cut? This has to be preparation for a pensions raid.

 

[ska invita]

Theres been a warning shot about pensions this week...
Thousands told their pension savings could be at risk - BBC News
not exactly related but...

 

[yield]

George Osborne warns of further cuts as 'storm clouds' gather

What the fuck is left to cut? This has to be preparation for a pensions raid.

Social services cuts could be 'largest factor' in biggest annual rise in deaths for almost 50 years
16 February 2016

The new preliminary figures, from the Office for National Statistics, claim that mortality rates last year rose by 5.4 per cent compared with 2014 – equivalent to almost 27,000 extra deaths. The increase is the highest since 1968 and took the total number of deaths in 2015 to 528,340.

The cuts have probably already caused a massive spike in deaths.

I work in a tory borough and apparently we got off lightly. Things are already cut to the bone.

 

[ska invita]

hah, this is good - IMFs growth forecasts ,as theyve been revised year on year with nothing happening ... you have to laugh
This is the most depressing chart in the world

 

[NoXion]

Talk about desperate optimism from the IMF. You'd think after five failed predictions they'd have revised their models by now.

 

[J Ed]

The very grim Citigroup report is discussed on the latest podcast by Richard Wolff Economic Update: Good for Profits, Bad for Society | Professor Richard D. Wolff

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Talk about desperate optimism from the IMF. You'd think after five failed predictions they'd have revised their models by now.

I'm sure I read somewhere that less than 50% of Bank of England forecasts turnout to be correct. In other words you could do a better job by flipping a coin. They get paid for this shit too.

 

[co-op]

I'm sure I read somewhere that less than 50% of Bank of England forecasts turnout to be correct. In other words you could do a better job by flipping a coin. They get paid for this shit too.

TBF you'd get results by flipping a coin if the choice was a binary; but economic forecasts aren't binary.

 

[yield]

Global trade: structural shifts
The fall in traffic could signal a permanent shift in the fundamentals driving globalisation

Last year saw the biggest collapse in the value of goods traded around the world since 2009 — when the impact of the global financial crisis was at its worst. Major ports such as Hamburg and Singapore have also reported slowing growth and even declining volumes. Barring a spectacular turnround in the global economy, the subpar performance is likely to be repeated in 2016, making it the fifth straight year of lacklustre growth in global trade, a pattern not seen since the doldrums of the 1970s.

Banks Bloated on Sovereign Debt Weaken Italy in Row With Germany
March 2, 2016

A drive to tighten rules over how much sovereign debt banks are allowed to own has raised the alarm in the home of the euro region’s largest bond market.

Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, vowed last month to veto any attempt to cap holdings, putting him at odds with Germany. Italian government securities account for 10.4 percent of the country’s bank assets, the most among major European economies and compared with 3.2 percent in Germany, the latest European Central Bank figures show.

Era of zero, negative interest rates could last for years: Barclays
Mar 3, 2016

The era of zero or negative interest rates, notably in Japan and the euro zone, could extend for several more years as central banks battle persistently low growth and inflation, strategists at Barclays said on Thursday.

The downward pressure on interest rates will be strongest in Japan and the euro zone, while the greater flexibility and resilience of the U.S. and UK economies should allow interest rates there to rise quicker, albeit extremely gradually.

"Negative nominal interest rates are more than just a passing monetary fad," Barclays said in its 61st annual Equity Gilt Study.

Brazil's economy slumps to 25-year low
3 March 2016

Brazil’s economy suffered its worst slump for quarter of a century last year as a global commodity rout, a domestic political crisis and rising inflation forced businesses to slash spending and jobs.

Economists warned that the country’s recession had further to run and could deepen amid fresh signs that a drop in demand has continued into 2016.

Official figures showed Brazil’s GDP fell 3.8% in 2015, the steepest decline since 1990, when the country was battling hyperinflation. Last year finished on a gloomy note with fourth quarter GDP down 1.4% on the previous quarter against the backdrop of a deepening political corruption scandal.

Still waiting for the good news.

 

[gosub]

Still waiting for the good news.

Spring is happening, the days getting longer, dafs crocus and snowdrops up, the geese soon to return... Will that do?

 

[yield]

Spring is happening, the days getting longer, dafs crocus and snowdrops up, the geese soon to return... Will that do?

Good enough for me. *sighs relaxes* global crisis resolved.

 

[gosub]

Good enough for me. *sighs relaxes* global crisis resolved.

The extended economic autumn continues

 

[Falcon]

It's a new development so not that worked out, is more a tax on banks, actual money in the bank is positive (just) or you wouldn't use them and mortgages also cost. It stops shed loads of money flooding into your economy cos they think it is safe haven, which would massively raise the exchange rate and destroy your exports. Based on bonds, and those that buy them

Currency demurrage has a rich history that goes back at least as far as Silvio Gesell (died 1930) and was the basis of a very successful local currency in the 1930's - until the central bank shut it down due to the threat to its power. It tries to reduce money's value as a commodity (something to be held for its own sake) and increase its value as a medium of exchange in order to stimulate the increase in supply of physical value in the economic system.

 

[hot air baboon]

A Warning From the B.I.S.: the Calm Before the Storm?

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is worried that recent ructions in the equities markets could be a sign that another financial crisis is brewing. In a sobering report titled “Uneasy calm gives way to turbulence” the BIS states grimly: “We may not be seeing isolated bolts from the blue but the signs of a gathering storm that has been building for a long time.”

 

[yield]

Next Financial Crisis could overwhelm World's defenses, IMF says
March 17, 2016

The global financial safety net has become increasingly fragmented, making it harder to respond to crises in a world roiled by volatile capital flows, International Monetary Fund staffers warned.

Defenses haven’t kept up with the growth of external debt in recent years, the Washington-based fund said in a report released Thursday. As a result, a system-wide shock could overwhelm the world’s crisis resources, which include nations’ foreign-exchange reserves, central-bank swap lines, regional funds such as the euro area’s European Stability Mechanism, and the IMF itself, the lender said.

Financial cycles have been “growing in amplitude and duration, capital flows have become more volatile, and non-banks have gained importance, altering the nature of systemic risk,” IMF staff said in the report, which was presented to the fund’s executive board on March 7. In a major event, “the needs could exceed the collective resources available,” the fund said.

Hedge fund closures return to crisis highs
FT. March 17, 2016

More hedge funds closed their doors in 2015 than at any time since the financial crisis, according to new research, as turbulent markets dragged down the industry’s performance.

Last year was the worst year for liquidations since 2009, with 979 funds closing, up from 864 in 2014, according to data from Hedge Fund Research. The fourth quarter of 2015 also saw the fewest new hedge funds starting up since 2009, with just 183 openings compared with 269 in the third quarter.

The figures capture a period in which many of the industry’s marquee names suffered significant losses.

 

[J Ed]

Saving capitalism from Donald Trump and the extreme left

 

[Coolfonz]

The globalist left who aim at destroying the nation-state through mass immigration and multiculturalism... and the globalist capitalist right who's determined to bring cheap labor into the West to drive down wages can only blame themselves and their policies for disrupting Europe's social cohesion. Now there no longer is a left and a right. There are nationalists who want sovereignty and to preserve their indigenous cultures, identities, and demographic compositions and there are globalists.

Utter bullshit. `Multiculturalism` is a right wing phenomena/invention, largely from the US. Immigration does not universally lower wages, real economic illiteracy here. It can do in certain industries, for limited periods of time, by a relatively small amount.
But yes you have two sets of right wingers fighting each other, like you do all over the planet, the right are at war with each other, ISIS, Nato, the EU, the FN, UKIP, Republicans, Democrats, Hindu Nats, Islamic fundies...the right are fighting over their empire as it drowns.

 

[gosub]

Italy must choose between the euro and its own economic survival

 

[yield]

Central banks are about to go to war
13/05/16

In one last gasp of unified policy convergence, G20 nations agreed to crush the USD again in early March 2016, to save China from the consequences of a stronger yuan and the commodity markets (and lenders who over-extended loans to commodity producers).

That Shanghai Accord lasted all of two months.

It’s Triffin’s Paradox writ large: As the primary global reserve currency, The USD plays both a domestic and an international role, and each set of users has a different set of priorities.

No matter what policy the Federal Reserve pursues, there will be powerful winners and losers.

This sets up a war between central banks everywhere in which winning may be as disastrous as losing.