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Global financial system implosion begins

I suppose if you have already bought back a substantial amount of shares at 100p, and then you see the value of those shares falling, it might make financial sense to borrow to prop the price because the borrowing costs are less than the projected losses on the 100p shares you bought.

It sounds like an awful practice though.
That doesn't make any sense; as a strategy it has no real purpose and as a method it would be disastrous. You might buy back shares for strategic purposes, like control, but primarily it would be because you expected their value to rise, and the expected value increase outweighed the borrowing costs. So just like any leveraged transaction (e.g. spread betting), but on your own company.
 
This guy is essentially saying that the current crisis has been bought on by the Chinese administration's mishandling of events - that is not to say that they haven't mishandled stuff but personally I think the issue is systemic.

Fraser Howie, the co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise, said Beijing’s handling of the stock market calamity raised real questions about the leadership of president Xi Jinping and prime minister Li Keqiang.

Our colleague Tom Phillips reports:
“I think there is now growing realisation – domestically and offshore - that the Chinese leadership are not in control of the situation. Not only are they not in control of it, they don’t even seem to grasp the problems at times,” Howie said.

“The real casualty over the summer is the government’s credibility. When you look at the stock market intervention, when you look at the FX botch as I would call it a couple of weeks ago, and then you look at the Tianjin blasts, you see a government that is most certainly not in control. You look at this and it sends a very poor picture about China’s competency at the leadership level. Who else is responsible here? Xi Jinping seems invisible.”

“There are no short term fixes for what China is going through,” Howie added.

“This is ultimately a painful unwinding of imbalances and leverage in the system and those processes are always tough and sore. It’s a bit like saying what’s a quick solution to my hangover?

And that is exactly where China is at the moment. There are no quick solutions.”

http://www.theguardian.com/business...-sell-off-deepens-as-panic-grips-markets-live
 
I think we are witnessting something pretty serious here. Its looking pretty grim out there.

What is happening, and what are possible outcomes?

I'm a complete layman that only knows "Chines share prices are falling" from various headlines.

Is there a good article that explains it somewhere?
 
It's a sea of red today, but as a snapshot of a single day or a handful of days it's not enormously disastrous. There was a similar level of volatility during the peak of the Grexit negotiations, and then shortly after a recovery basically back to normal, because the markets are short termist, reactionary and quick to seize the opportunities that weakness presents.

This though is more worrying (and I'm a layman here) because it has more to do with serious systemic weakness rather than more transient bumps in the road; that's not to downplay the seriousness of Grexit to the EU economy, but it took place in a conservative ecosystem where, despite their noises, ultimately all actors would take a beating if anything truly radical happened. This has the potential to be more like the global subprime debt crisis where you can't hide from the truth that the emperor has no clothes; or more specifically, like economic mismanagement and incompetence meets a bubble.

If you can cope with regularly coming across deeply technical stuff that only economists can understand, then FT Alphaville is a good bet for commentary, and free. There's a market blog at 11am.
 
A large part of it does seem to be the instability of the stock market. Fair enough if stock prices go incredibly high nobody will be able to afford them, and if they go incredibly low many more people will be able to afford them. It's the booms and busts in between that cause the problems. People talk up the economy and prices become inflated, some start selling and that causes a panic selling.
 
A large part of it does seem to be the instability of the stock market. Fair enough if stock prices go incredibly high nobody will be able to afford them, and if they go incredibly low many more people will be able to afford them. It's the booms and busts in between that cause the problems. People talk up the economy and prices become inflated, some start selling and that causes a panic selling.
You're looking at it as if it were a simple supply and demand fruit market style model for tangible physical commodity. It's not. I don't want to try and explain the global economy in a post, not least because I'm clueless, but for a start it's inherently a large part sentiment and expectation, otherwise you would never buy anything other than a stake that gave you meaningful executive control over some entity. Then there's the complex relationship between market value and survivability; e.g. you may well need interest in your share to fund raise otherwise you run out of working capital and it all starts to unravel. Throw leverage and debt into that, as well as international economic relationships, and it's a frightening nightmare.
 
It's certainly getting worse. Don't look at your pension funds for the next decade. I own some shares in a large company and they've lost 10% today.
 
FTSE 100 (^FTSE)
-FTSE
5,849.13
down_r.gif
338.52(5.47%) 14:58


I dont know much about stocks but thats a lot isnt it?
 
FTSE 100 (^FTSE)
-FTSE
5,849.13
down_r.gif
338.52(5.47%) 14:58


I dont know much about stocks but thats a lot isnt it?
So possibly granny, eggs, etc, but the FTSE100 is an index of Britain's 100 biggest companies, and as a rule of thumb, big equals old, established and conservative, so volatility is unusual. It has since recovered a little, as have most economies, but the question is what the trend is going to be in the next days and weeks. It could be a bump or we could be going back to 2008 - or a bit of both.
 
Here's something I've been wondering about. How much does the success of financial markets depend on transparency, and if the answer is 'significantly', how compatible is that with the current Chinese setup?

So if I want to buy, say, Apple shares at $100 each, I need to know at least that the ticker price reflects how the global market actually values Apple. Equally if I want to make decisions based on the FTSE, I'm probably going to put some faith in UK GDP figures. However, the Shanghai stock exchange isn't properly open to foreign investors and is tightly manipulated, and everyone knows that Chinese GDP figures are bollocks. And to top it all off, there doesn't seem to be any credibility or faith in their central economic policy. So how the fuck can you properly integrate this mess (and by association the yuan) into global capitalism?

I'm guessing an economist's answer would be "ha, you can't", and one just hopes that it can either sort itself or you can personally escape before it unravels and blows up, but it leaves me wondering whether it's a lot like the time - like anyone can even remember - that banks blindly put their faith in pass-the-parcel debt smoothies because it seemed like a good upward trend at the time?
 
It's all a bit The Emperor's new clothes but I do think quite a few people must have realised that credit default swaps were the scam that they were and that when the music stopped there'd be people without a chair.
 
It's all a bit The Emperor's new clothes but I do think quite a few people must have realised that credit default swaps were the scam that they were and that when the music stopped there'd be people without a chair.
I wish I had your unbridled optimism. I think most market participants quietly viewed the chairless as the systemic weakness and the music stopping as the correction to eliminate them.
 
Not optimism, cynicism
No, definitely optimism. It implies that someone knew what they were doing and had an understanding of the risk exposure, or even that they can learn lessons from it. It seems to me more likely that pretty much all involved were, and are, very stupid.
 
Lol i'm sure I know what feeling cynical is and i remember at the time thinking someone must have known the risks. Maybe it was coke-fuelled optimism on their part
 
So possibly granny, eggs, etc, but the FTSE100 is an index of Britain's 100 biggest companies, and as a rule of thumb, big equals old, established and conservative, so volatility is unusual. It has since recovered a little, as have most economies, but the question is what the trend is going to be in the next days and weeks. It could be a bump or we could be going back to 2008 - or a bit of both.
The FTSE 100 has changed a lot.

More than half of companies have left FTSE since last peak
Wednesday 25 February 2015
Mergers, breakups and collapses have seen 51 companies leave the blue chip index since the last record was set in December 1999
 
The FTSE 100 has changed a lot.

More than half of companies have left FTSE since last peak
Wednesday 25 February 2015
Yes, but this isn't contradictory to them being boring & conservative, assuming that's the point. What you don't see is a FTSE constituent suddenly go, hurray, we've found oil, and their price go up 100x like a small cap explorer. Things happen slowly and gradually and with limited volatility. Large scale M&A is no exception.
 
If he's right, hard cash - or Twitter posts, for that matter - won't do him any good :D

Former Head of Communications at the UK Treasury - you have to wonder! But more about how he ever got that job than whether he's right now.

Definitely OTT and ridiculous but one man's idiocy doesn't preclude the possibility of seriously bad times.
 
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