Global financial system implosion begins

[gosub]

I'd say the politicians are a guilty of fraud as the banks. And remember the EUro was a political idea not the banks, though the politicans have decided the banks that went along get a haircut and not the intergovernmental lending. Really don't think private bond buyers are the bad guys here, its just where the what toothpaste left in the tube has got squeezed to

 

[ska invita]

What happens if no cash comes from anywhere? Serious question as I'm not an expert on economics.But it seems to me that the banks have committed a massive fraud against the people of Europe (and the wider world)and i don't see why we should give the thieving bastards anything.

Im no expert either... but that's the big question: where is the money going to come from? No one knows the answer to this stuff, because there is no answer! or at least not one they want to hear.

 

[elbows]

The money will come from where it always comes from, people working.

And yes, this is about way more than bank fraud. Even if we believe that this crisis is just about the behaviour of the banks, they didn't just do this stuff for personal enrichment, the broader system demanded it of them to a certain extent. Its been used to keep going with business as usual, to pump up bubbles which were useful for all sorts of reasons, to keep people consuming despite a lack of income increases for people in real terms, to make up for the huge imbalances in trade, and in the case of the UK having a large banking service sector is a way to take a cut of the wealth being generated in other countries.

A now familiar headline seems to be getting louder:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15519699

The global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that may ignite social unrest, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned.

"We have reached the moment of truth. We have a brief window of opportunity to avoid a major double-dip in employment," said Raymond Torres from the ILO.
The group also measured levels of discontent over the lack of jobs and anger over perceptions that the burden of the crisis was not being fairly shared.
It said scores of countries faced the possibility of social unrest, particularly those in the EU and the Arab region.

 

[magneze]

So, a possible Greek referendum and a no-confidence vote in the government on Friday. A no to the referendum or a passed no-confidence vote brings the whole thing down again.

 

[toblerone3]

The referendum will take ages to organise surely. Will not happen before January. Greek government may fall on Friday.

 

[magneze]

Probably a good call from the Greek PM - massively strengthens his hand in negotiations with the EU who would now have to appease the Greek public with their demands.

 

[jusali]

So basically we're all fucked slightly less than those to the East and the West but we're fucked?
Are we talking flat caps and soup kitchens here?

 

[gosub]

only way he could survive the no confidence vote, and still not certain he'll get to January. Nice to see the coke head dealers putting a price on democracy -blah blah billion. Did they really think they can take EUrope down a painful route of austerity without consultation

 

[magneze]

The news is now that the government may fall within hours.

 

[gosub]

Greek military chiefs all sacked

 

[GEN.Eccentric]

An attempt to avoid a coup?

 

[elbows]

I wouldn't hazard a guess as to the specifics, but it certainly sounds like heavy shit is occurring within the Greek establishment right now. I think it deserves its own thread really, but I don't have anything useful with which to start it.

 

[Giles]

I wish they'd just give up on the Euro and let it all crash. All this silliness of lending various countries billions of made-up Euros, which they are supposed to pay back (with what?) is just prolonging the agony, isn't it?

Give it up!

Giles..

 

[elbows]

which they are supposed to pay back (with what?)

With hideous austerity and years of hard work for little reward. It's doable given enough time, but if I were in Greece then Id be quite tempted by the default option.

 

[Giles]

BBC News is now talking about "Italy going pop"!?

Giles..

 

[elbows]

Its getting quite interesting.

http://www.moneyweek.com/blog/is-greece-the-most-powerful-country-in-the-world-56101

The fact that the Greek government – seemingly alone among Europe’s governments – is prepared to recognise that big events of this sort need discussion with their populations as well as with the euro elite is actually rather heartening.
But the fact that markets are diving this morning should tell us one more thing. Greece has all the power. The talk around the bail-outs is usually about what Germany is prepared to do rather than what Greece is prepared to accept. Germany is assumed to have the power. But Greece has now shown the markets that it just isn’t so. If the Greeks decide they don’t fancy the terms much and announce a disorderly exit, it is game over for the euro, for Europe’s economy and for Germany’s weak-currency driven export boom.

http://robertreich.org/post/12200736000

So which is it? Rule by democracy or by financial markets? Based on what’s happened in America, I’d choose the former.

 

[yield]

Thanks for the links elbows. Greece was right to call a referendum. Things are getting sketchy ain't they.

 

[elbows]

Can thank the BBC for the links, they mentioned those articles in their live blog on the greek crisis and when I saw what they said I had to post them here.

 

[Kanda]

So, the Greek public will vote against the cuts I guess??

This will go well...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Can we have a new thread on greece? By someone who knows the score.
Could we have a revolution there? Or a military coup?
Certainly the anger of its people has brought the government close to collapse.
Greek default will have massive implications for Italy, Ireland and Spain.

 

[pinkmonkey]

Greek default will have massive implications for Italy, Ireland and Spain.

and French and German banks. They will go under, too much exposure. I'ts all starting to sound very, very fucked indeed. Very worrying. <Starts sharpening boat hook>

 

[ska invita]

So, the Greek public will vote against the cuts I guess??

This will go well...

I don't think thats a certainty. It seems to me that by having this referendum it makes the public have to make the hard choice, and therefore collectively share the burden of responsibility of the outcome. They may reason that the europlan is the lesser of two evils...

...the thing is the europlan is based on money that doesnt exist - or rather is sitting in China, and Chinese smoke signals are saying 'hands off'.

I think i read somewhere that polls are 50/50 atm (may have got that very wrong).

 

[pinkmonkey]

I read 59% of Greeks want to pull out of the Euro

 

[rover07]

So, the Greek public will vote against the cuts I guess??

This will go well...

No, I think they will vote in favour.

The cuts will mostly affect future pensions. Which gives Greeks time to make other retirement plans.

 

[ska invita]

I read 59% of Greeks want to pull out of the Euro

Ah, thanks. Still a small chance of a swing as the arguments get made.

 

[Kaka Tim]

If they do win the referendum, it wont be by much and the government will still struggle to force the merkel medicine down the throats of an enraged population.

 

[Crispy]

Greece thread here: http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/greece-euro-crisis.281296/
(I changed the title)

 

[Nylock]

Italian Govt. looking very fragile in light of what's been happening in Greece. Berlusconi Govt has 'a matter of weeks or months' before it falls (BBC).

Berlusconi ofc still massively pumped up on hubris and fear of various impending prosecutions refusing to stand down and clinging on for dear life...

 

[Nylock]

<paranoid>
The EU/Greek drama unfolding atm is making the G20 meeting become more of a mere sideshow news-wise atm... I wonder what 'bad news' the G20 will be looking to bury or what measures they will try and implement 'under the radar' while everyone's distracted by Europe....
</paranoid>

 

[TopCat]

Papendreou is stepping down, no refereundum, coalition govt to carry on kicking the can down the road.