General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[magneze]

Yes, a fractured, hung parliament is, potentially, a very fluid entity. Some recent electoral predictions have shown it may well take 4 parties to form some sort of alignment to form the basis of an administration.

As long as the Tories or UKIP aren't one of those four then we'll be in a slightly better position. Nightmare would be Tory + UKIP.

 

[danny la rouge]

it's a key point that the PM can't decide when to call the election, so the Tories would be unable to use their greater financial clout to beat labour in a second election. The note that the author added on FTPA confirms that it would be the opposition who can effectively decide when to call a new election.

The pm wouldn't decide the timing, it's true. But the financial clout of the Tories will still be the financial clout of the Tories 14 days after a no confidence vote.

 

[newbie]

He needs 433 MP's votes to end the fixed term Parliament and call an election, Tories may be budgeting for a second election-the other parties aren't.

2/3 majority? anyhow, my guess is it'll be overturned as soon as any PM from any party can threeline whip their way to doing so.

 

[magneze]

The pm wouldn't decide the timing, it's true. But the financial clout of the Tories will still be the financial clout of the Tories 14 days after a no confidence vote.

I guess that it would mean that the other parties could fund-raise before calling the vote. Nothing stopping the Tories doing the same mind..

 

[danny la rouge]

I guess that it would mean that the other parties could fund-raise before calling the vote. Nothing stopping the Tories doing the same mind..

Well, the argument is, I suppose, that the Tories could financially better stand going straight into another election than the other parties.

As I say, though, while that may be true, it isn't the only factor in deciding whether the Tories get an outright majority next time. It could be another hung parliament. (Although I concede that newspaper presentation of the events may influence the outcome).

 

[gosub]

I guess that it would mean that the other parties could fund-raise before calling the vote. Nothing stopping the Tories doing the same mind..

I think we might well see state funding of parties this term.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think we might well see state funding of parties this term.

Are you a betting man?

 

[belboid]

He needs 433 MP's votes to end the fixed term Parliament and call an election, Tories may be budgeting for a second election-the other parties aren't.

it isn't even that simple. It requires two-thirds to pass a motion that “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” - but that isn't a vote of no confidence.

A VoNC happens when a motion is passed - on a simple majority - on the motion “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

A government could, technically, fiddle it so they lost such a vote and called an election early, but it would reflect incredibly badly on them and cost them votes.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2

 

[DotCommunist]

s are we to basically take it that the election will be won by whoever has the best grasp of uk parliamentary law and is aided by hectoring r/w press?
Nice.

 

[gosub]

it isn't even that simple. It requires two-thirds to pass a motion that “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” - but that isn't a vote of no confidence.

A VoNC happens when a motion is passed - on a simple majority - on the motion “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

A government could, technically, fiddle it so they lost such a vote and called an election early, but it would reflect incredibly badly on them and cost them votes.

Losing a vote of no confidence doesn't mean they have to ask the electorate, they can bugger around to their hearts content.

 

[belboid]

Losing a vote of no confidence doesn't mean they have to ask the electorate

Yes it does.

 

[gosub]

s are we to basically take it that the election will be won by whoever has the best grasp of uk parliamentary law and is aided by hectoring r/w press?
Nice.

The party that wins the election, probably won't have been in government for quite a while by the time we have another election

 

[gosub]

Yes it does.

Nope it does n't, just means that government falls, and somebody else gets a turn, unless a 2/3 super majority vote to call an election (under the fixed term parliament act). And most of parties don't have the money for an election so before that they'd need buying off with statefunding

 

[belboid]

Nope it does n't, just means that government falls, and somebody else gets a turn, unless a 2/3 super majority vote to call an election (under the fixed term parliament act)

the legislation states:

(3)An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—

(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and

(b)the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).

(4)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(a) is—

“That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

(5)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(b) is—

“That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

 

[danny la rouge]

Nope it does n't, just means that government falls, and somebody else gets a turn, unless a 2/3 super majority vote to call an election (under the fixed term parliament act). And most of parties don't have the money for an election so before that they'd need buying off with statefunding

No it doesn't. The 2/3 thing and the no confidence thing are two separate circumstances.

 

[gosub]

the legislation states:

(3)An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—

(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and

(b)the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).

(4)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(a) is—

“That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

(5)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(b) is—

“That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

Looking at it, the 14 day thing is there. So we get two weeks of economic turmoil guaranteed, all interested parties will leave it til the last minute to extract the best deal, fucking wonderful

 

[belboid]

Looking at it, the 14 day thing is there. So we get two weeks of economic turmoil guaranteed, all interested parties will leave it til the last minute to extract the best deal, fucking wonderful

I think the chances of their being a new government in such circumstances are virtually nil. Even if the figures added up, you couldn't switch from a Tory led coalition to a Labour led one without major uproar and outcry.

 

[danny la rouge]

Looking at it, the 14 day thing is there.

Yes, I said that here. Didn't you believe me?

 

[tbtommyb]

Looking at it, the 14 day thing is there. So we get two weeks of economic turmoil guaranteed, all interested parties will leave it til the last minute to extract the best deal, fucking wonderful

i get pissed off when you see headlines like 'business leaders fear political uncertainty'. So? Shall we stop having elections to give them more certainty?

 

[gosub]

i get pissed off when you see headlines like 'business leaders fear political uncertainty'. So? Shall we stop having elections to give them more certainty?

So do I, but 2010 managed to be done in 5 days, and there was market pressure, statute in 14 days and Parkinsons Law is in full effect.

 

[danny la rouge]

So do I, but 2010 managed to be done in 5 days, and there was market pressure, statute in 14 days and Parkinsons Law is in full effect.

Have a look around the rest of the world. If we now have a system where coalition and no overall control is more likely, you need to get used to the idea that building coalition might take longer than 5 days. Or even 14 days.

Never watched Borgen, ffs?

 

[butchersapron]

So do I, but 2010 managed to be done in 5 days, and there was market pressure, statute in 14 days and Parkinsons Law is in full effect.

Was there 5 days of economic turmoil in 2010? There was not. Why suggest that would be over an extended period next time around?

 

[belboid]

So do I, but 2010 managed to be done in 5 days, and there was market pressure, statute in 14 days and Parkinsons Law is in full effect.

Depends what is likely to happen. 2010 was a bit of a blip as it was largely unprecedented, although it was still expected, and taken into account by the markets. So it did have some effect on stocks, but it was hardly turmoil

As I said above, I don't think it is at all likely that there would be a change in government in those fourteen days, so the markets would just treat it as the beginning of the election period. A little more turbulent? Perhaps, but hardly earth-shatteringly so.

 

[butchersapron]

This is pretty much what markets do when an old established country with little or no risk has a coalition construction period:

 

[weltweit]

As long as the Tories or UKIP aren't one of those four then we'll be in a slightly better position. Nightmare would be Tory + UKIP.

I wonder about UKIP. They only had two seats and they were sitting MPs who changed party and it isn't even clear that Farage will win his seat. It is possible with FPTP they may only get a few seats.

 

[Pickman's model]

i get pissed off when you see headlines like 'business leaders fear political uncertainty'. So? Shall we stop having elections to give them more certainty?

shoot them and give them closure

the markets may not like it though

 

[danny la rouge]

I wonder about UKIP. They only had two seats and they were sitting MPs who changed party and it isn't even clear that Farage will win his seat. It is possible with FPTP they may only get a few seats.

Current modelling suggests 2.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

[brogdale]

For anybody living outside Scotland who might want to view tonight's leaders' debate....

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/debates/

 

[belboid]

Current modelling suggests 2.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Or one, or five! Only one way has them having any chance of influence tho. And even then it must be unlikely, as they [the tories] need the LibScum more

 

[The39thStep]

Fascinating odds on the Carlow-Kilkenny by election on May 22nd this year, (which has fuck all to do with the general election but I thought was interesting anyway). Some aromatherapist ( Breda Garner) has a better chance than either Nigel Irritables third period Trots or what is left of the SWP in Ireland

Fianna Fail
1/2
Renua
14/1
Green
66/1
Fine Gael
3/1
Labour
66/1
People Before Profit
100/1
Sinn Fein
13/2
Anti-Austerity Alliance
66/1
Noel G Walsh
100/1
Breda Gardner (Independent)
14/1