Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff
- Thread starter ffsear
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The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
there are some teams who go on a little run of form worth backing . Everton beginning of the season, Burnley at home before Xmas, West Brom a few weeks ago, United to draw has been a good one, and Palace beating both Chelsea and Arsenal recently. Hull are worth a dabble on under Marco Silva especially at home.
sealion
Conformity is the last refuge of the unimaginitive
They can't be worse than Brighton Huddersfield and Watford. It's not an appealing league to watch when you see who's in it. But then again Palace tend to fall apart every five years.Palace 4/1 to get relegated, get on it
They'll have their usual Europe here we come couple of weeks then boom, Big Sam has emptied the safe so it doesn't look like they can afford Sakho, strange choice of manager, fans attacking their own players.
Doomed.
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Ponyutd
Greebo likes this....r.i.p.
brixtonblade
Well-Known Member
.
Good luck to her
cybershot
Well-Known Member
Tough one really, Lucky 15 bets aren't the type of bets a 'matched better' (I have duplicate accounts myself in other peoples names so I can still do offers after my original account gets 'gubbed') would do, unless all the bets were done the night before to lay them off for a small profit regardless the following day. There's no mention if she'd already tried to take her claim up with Gambling commission or IBAS. Guess they don't cover Ireland.
The problem with bookies is, they all make up their own rules, and do whatever the fuck they like, they are all crooks. 365 is actually one of the better ones, but they are still crooks, especially when i comes to paying out on horses if a outsider has steamed home. I know of many people who have had winnings confiscated, and had to fight really hard to get them back, because they make claim like above 'a 3rd party was involved' It's a load of bollocks. I hope she wins.
Bonesy
9"
Got a 'tip' from a mate of mine that O'Hara Davies was 'free money' at 6/4 in the fight with Josh Taylor at the weekend. Couldn't believe how bad he was - Taylor picked him apart from the opening bell, totally dominating him with bodyshots and finishing in the 7th. Not entirely sure what all the fuss with Davies is about, he looked absolutely terrible on that showing.
donkyboy
Crazy Cat/Fox man
where did a teen get £25k to bet with?
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
Let down by a Scot and an AustralianKonta/Murray double £5£165 if it comes in .
Ponyutd
Greebo likes this....r.i.p.
"It has insisted that Miss McCann is in “flagrant breach” of its own terms and conditions because the firm is convinced the original betting stake was supplied by a ‘third party’. In legal letters from bet365’s lawyers, Miss McCann found herself accused of fraud and cheating".
This isn't a 'matched bettor', it looks like straight heavy punting.
I have thought previously, if I had a winning system for the horses, one way to play it would be to place these types of bets as a way of getting large wagers accepted regularly. As the multiples are unlikely, most of the time you will lose somewhat - perhaps break even (keeping the bookies happy) - but when the big win comes in it will smash it. At that point they may stop taking your bets and you have to find another account.
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cybershot
Well-Known Member
You'll get stake restricted pretty quickly, especially when placing bets on horses the night before, then you have to be vigilant for non runners before you lay it off at a shorter price, it's very time consuming, and I can't be arsed.
Even if you do bets not too far from the off, a trader will eventually look into your account and look at the odds of the exchanges when you too your bet, if they consistently find your taking the 'best value bet' in the field, then again, you'll get stake restricted and probably get 'gubbed' also if the bookie overs BOG.
Multiples are less obvious, but again it's not difficult to guarantee profits regardless of outcome, it's just very very time consuming, and as you say unless you're dealing with big numbers it's not worth it beause you won't make nearly enough as you would from working a job. Your 'bookie bank' is essentially your float that you keep reinvesting to make larger numbers.
Football is easier as you just pick games that kick off at different times, and lay them off one by one, if one leg fails, you get the free bet refund, or be brave enough to take the games in play, and hope your team scores early enough to lay off for bigger profits, or at least hold off for 20 mins then lay (as the odds won't have changed much) of course the risk here is that the go behind! With those you're usually limited to £25 or £50 stakes anyway.
I've made about £4500 doing this in the past 18 months, starting with a £100 betting bank. If I was more pro-active, it would be a hell of a lot more, but I'm lazy and also some weekends I want to go out and do stuff and not be stuck in front of computers/TV. Thou I should just grab some balls and stop laying the bets off, because m spreadsheet gives me more than enough evidence to suggest my exchanges are always losing money while my bookie accounts are always making money.
I don't understand why you are assuming that the bets must be placed close to the off, why non-runners need be worried about at all, why the horse picked need be the best value on the exchanges, and why the bet needs to be laid off. I'm assuming (in my hypothetical example) that you are simply picking winners and have a genuinely successful system to do so and the point is to get your money on.
By placing lucky 15s your account will likely show a loss for some time even if level staking on the same horses would be in profit, thus camouflaging your success until you have a big win. I haven't done this, but would be inclined to try it if I had a winning system on the horses. As you say it's not impossible that your bets could be analysed but I suspect the bookies aren't going to give losing accounts the same forensic treatment as winning ones.
cybershot
Well-Known Member
No, the outcome doesn't matter.
If you place a bet on a horse overnght at 25/1. It will more than likely be a lot less than this an hour before the off, you lay the bet off then, and guarantee yourself a small profit, regardless of if the horse wins or loses. In the glory days you'd rinse and repeat this, but the bookies are onto it now.
The downside is the non runners, as it can obviously change the weight of the odds and the potential winnings, thankfully there's online calculators to work this out.
That's just one example. Thou, like I said, if you keep doing this you'll quickly get stake restricted/gubbed by the bookie because you're taking exceptional value from the market by doing it the night before. Hence I can't be arsed and instead stick to football multiples, where you take advantage of the 1 leg letting you down offer.
This is a system based on predicting market moves: nothing against that at all, I'm sure you can do it, but it's not what I was describing. In my hypothetical system I am simply picking winners and hiding it via lucky 15s, so I generally lose money aside from the big win. In your system you are expecting to make a small profit every day, and there is no big win.
cybershot
Well-Known Member
True, but theres so many things you can take advantage of, over multiple bookmakers, Cheltenham and the Grand National are gold mines. It's a shame the each way market offers have become less as sniping the 5th placed horse for example, was also lucrative. From just doing all the sign up offers for all bookies (and there's enough of them now) you can easily pocket yourself a grand within a few weeks.
It does take the fun out of it thou.
Watermelon Man
Member
So in short. You've got no chance of making money from gambling and if you do, then bookmakers might not pay you.
I used to gamble but when you see it for what it really is, then it's hard to bet again.
It's a mugs game for sure.
I used to gamble but when you see it for what it really is, then it's hard to bet again.
It's a mugs game for sure.
sealion
Conformity is the last refuge of the unimaginitive
twistedAM
Left Of The Dial
In the Ireland vs Serbia game I had £5 on Kolarov to score anytime at 15/2 and then as an afterthought put £1 on him to score the first goal at 17/1.
Both came up obviously but I was wishing I had done the bets the other way round.
However on reflection its quite a sensible way of betting innit? That is, take the anytime price and top it up with a small bet on first goal.
What do more regular football gamblers reckon?
Both came up obviously but I was wishing I had done the bets the other way round.
However on reflection its quite a sensible way of betting innit? That is, take the anytime price and top it up with a small bet on first goal.
What do more regular football gamblers reckon?
cybershot
Well-Known Member
Stick with FGS, and do it on Betfred or similair which double the odds if he gets 2, or triple it if gets a hatrick.
twistedAM
Left Of The Dial
Ta. That makes sense for strikers or prolific scorers.
I like having a punt on defenders. Gareth MacAuley has been good to me over the past couple of years for NI and WBA.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Defenders that score is an interesting bet, McCauley, Cahill, Alonso, etc
cybershot
Well-Known Member
Most FGS for decent strikers is still about 7/1 if not more sometimes, if they get two, then bonus, hat trick, even better.
Only real way to track it would be to do a spreadsheet over the season and see which is more profitable, if at all. Decent striker on FGS or defender on anytime.
Most likely better odds on the exchanges too if you can get them matched for the defenders!
