Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff
- Thread starter ffsear
- Start date
hammerntongues
Well-Known Member
We were 5/6 to beat Villa on Tuesday , Villa are bottom and shit and we seem to be flying , have been getting good prices all season , I took 9/2 yesterday on the Southampton game but they do seem to have picked up lately .
ffsear
Well-Known Member
£16 on Liverpool / West Ham double. @ 7.7
ffsear
Well-Known Member
You're just looking at the accumulator price. One of the bets is 1.4 which is odds on - So you are well of the mark with that comment. Do you know what a "double" is ?(clue: its not one bet!)
... and the other one is 5.5, which is 9/2, or right up there with the kind of 13/2 things Athos was looking for.
And betting as a double is very different than betting in a series that you can back away from at any time. It gets treated as a single bet with only one spread, not two bets with two separate spreads.
Face it, you've come to the realization that you are best off getting your 6.5x multiple in one go rather than finding 20 separate bets one at a time. That's a good thing, you're learning and growing.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
... and the other one is 5.5, which is 9/2, or right up there with the kind of 13/2 things Athos was looking for.
And betting as a double is very different than betting in a series that you can back away from at any time. It gets treated as a single bet with only one spread, not two bets with two separate spreads.
Face it, you've come to the realization that you are best off getting your 6.5x multiple in one go rather than finding 20 separate bets one at a time. That's a good thing, you're learning and growing.
Yea because i saw a bit a value. So what? 99% of my bests on this thread have been odds on!
Clutching at straws comes to mind.
Like the Watford one also on this page, you mean?
That's all good, you have come to an understanding what doesn't work.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
What? I had other bets open at different prices on other markets. The true value of that bet was not 7.0 as i was laying off other bets. Its called Hedging, and the price of the bet does not represent my exposure. Please come back when you have a fucking clue.
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Lol.
Never mind, you have learned but you have not yet learned that you have learned. This will come in time, my son.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
A reminder:
I attempt this every month, Sometimes it works, sometimes you get caught out. So thought it might be fun to do it live in a thread.
The rules are.. Start with £20, You make 1 bet per day at very short odds, Almost dead certs. Every bet you are going all in. Bets should be placed at odds of 1.05 to 1.10 (anything below 1.05 is not really worth the risk).
Bets can be made before the event, but often you can get a good prices in play. e.g backing the winning football team after 85' mins
If I make it 30 wins in a row, I can turn my £20 form anything into £150 to £200. (pays for a month food shop)
Below shows how the money will accumulate assuming I get odds of 1.07 (on betfair).
£20
1 1.07 £21.40
2 1.07 £22.90
3 1.07 £24.50
4 1.07 £26.22
5 1.07 £28.05
6 1.07 £30.01
7 1.07 £32.12
8 1.07 £34.36
9 1.07 £36.77
10 1.07 £39.34
11 1.07 £42.10
12 1.07 £45.04
13 1.07 £48.20
14 1.07 £51.57
15 1.07 £55.18
16 1.07 £59.04
17 1.07 £63.18
18 1.07 £67.60
19 1.07 £72.33
20 1.07 £77.39
21 1.07 £82.81
22 1.07 £88.61
23 1.07 £94.81
24 1.07 £101.45
25 1.07 £108.55
26 1.07 £116.15
27 1.07 £124.28
28 1.07 £132.98
29 1.07 £142.29
30 1.07 £152.25
(*does not factor in Betfair's 5% commission)
The Golden rule is 1 BET PER day. Lets see how it goes!.
adidaswoody
Like a star
was nice having a catch up! How've you done so far this year 
Athos
Well-Known Member
Indeed. My first post was:
Which far more closely resembles the method he's employing now (having belatedly realised how shit the scheme he originally proposed was).
ffsear
Well-Known Member
lol, i make one bet above evens. and Athos thinks i'm reverting to his method (whatever that is). As if he invented the concept of value.! And its not even come in yet. Every other bet has been odds on.
Still waiting for you to call 1 winner Athos!! Or prove the "I've made 9 times that this month" statement you made earlier!
Still waiting for you to call 1 winner Athos!! Or prove the "I've made 9 times that this month" statement you made earlier!
ffsear
Well-Known Member
LOL, we've had another pearl of wisdom!! Where the fuck did you get this from? (thats bollox BTW incase you're missing the tone)
Athos
Well-Known Member
If you can tell me how I prove bets made in a bookies, and prove the absence of losing bets (to reflect the net position), I will. But it's imoossible, so a non-point to keep making.
And as for 'one bet', what about the £200 treble (without which you'd be doing shit)? Is that nearer to my idea of a single or double at around 13/2, or your original proposal of a series of about 30 super short bets with the winnings rolled into the next?
I've made about three suggestions on this thread, all dictated by your original parameters to turn £20 into £150, so I was hampered. You've made loads and loads of odds on predictions; of course a few will come in!
And let's not forget: I offered you the wager. You bottled it.
I thought I was "Blocked!"?
Two on this page alone.
Athos
Well-Known Member
Betting in a way that guarantees one of your bets is sure to lose (presumably in some misguided attempt at hedging) is terrible strategy.
sealion
Conformity is the last refuge of the unimaginitive
Well Southampton have not conceded in four games.winning at united and drawing at Arsenal and of course they beat Arsenal 4-0 at home recently. West ham have only won once in the last 7 away from home, recently losing at Newcastle.They also have a midweek cup replay against Liverpool at home. But don't let that put you off.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Athos
Well-Known Member
Is reducing my exposure, thats the point
another fail.
That's an amateur's misunderstanding. If you can't afford to carry that level of exposure, don't make the bet in the first place. The second bet could have gone on something else at a similar price which represented similar value, but which wasn't mutually exclusive. That way, you'd have a chance of winning twice, which is guaranteed not to happen with what you propose. Yes, you could lose both by betting on two events, but, given you only covered two out of three outcomes, you could lose both, too!
Whilst there are situations where an argument can be made for placing mutually exclusive bets (e.g. when you effectively face an underround book because of the inflated real price at the point of the last leg of a live accumulator), this isn't one of them - it's a psychological illusion that you're not losing.
