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Farmer Bankruptcies, Trade Wars, Tarriffs, and the Future of Food

Trump says China is 'letting us down' by not buying US farm products during trade talks

After Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the G-20 summit in Japan last month, the sides agreed to move forward with talks and hold off on imposing new tariffs. But the U.S. president left the meeting with the expectation that China would buy American crops.

“We’re holding on tariffs, and they’re going to buy farm product,” he said at the time.

Increased agricultural purchases serve more than one purpose for Trump. He has long pushed for the U.S. to cut its trade deficit with China. Trump also seeks to help farmers in key electoral states recently punished by flooding, low crop prices and the U.S. trade conflict with Beijing.

On Tuesday, Trump’s top economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, said the White House considers it “very, very important” for China to buy farm products as the trade talks continue.
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'It never stops': US farmers now face extreme heat wave after floods and trade war

In the past year, torrential rains have dumped water on U.S. farmers’ lands, destroying acreage and delaying crops from getting planted on time.

Now, farmers face yet another hurdle: a stifling heat wave that’s spreading across the United States, expected to be the worst in the farm states including Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois.

“Every time we think we catch a break, it’s just another issue we have to solve,” Adam Jones, a 28-year-old organic farmer from Central Illinois, tells CNBC.
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The record flooding in the Midwest and Great Plains has caused at least $3 billion in damage, left millions of acres unseeded and put crops that were planted late at high risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season.

As a result, crops are less able withstand extreme changes in weather. A heat wave would cause wet soil to crust and compact, stunting root development and ruining crops, according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with INTL FCStone in Kansas City, Missouri.

“There’s a high level of stress right now,” Suderman said. “We’ve never planted this late in the year, and the conditions in which the crops were planted make it more difficult for them to withstand heat and dryness.”
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Alex Jones, climate division director at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, attributed the heat wave to climate change and warned farmers to “get used to it” and build resilience into the system by planting more resistant crops, even if doing so results in lower yields.

“The one key message is this is the new normal — and it’s only going to get worse,” Jones said.
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I read an article that explained that as the climate heats up, and CO2 concentration increases, the level of nutrients in crops will decline. Above a certain level of CO2 in the atmosphere, human cognitive abilities become affected too. We're basically fucked.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
True sadly. We're just idiotic as a species when it comes to planning for the future and making sure there actually will be one. Either we'll slowly decline until we become extinct, or there will be asteroid or comet strike to put us out of our misery.
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No point in asking if you are a 'glass half empty or half full?', type of person.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
I'm an optimist, but the outlook for our species is dire. No getting round that really.

And an asteroid strike would be a good way to go out. Late heavy bombardment mark 2. :cool:
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We were on the upswing. We managed to grow the population massively. It was awesome. We're about to go on the, uh, downswing. Which means we're about to shrink the population massively. Which is every bit as fun as it sounds. What a time to be alive.

I'm not saying that the UK is very prepared but preparations are in place to some extent. This is because we don't have a president who can't tell the difference between climate and weather. Sorry North America. Really, sorry.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
True sadly. We're just idiotic as a species when it comes to planning for the future and making sure there actually will be one. Either we'll slowly decline until we become extinct, or there will be asteroid or comet strike to put us out of our misery.
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We're living on a planet with finite resources. You'd have to be deluded to think we're facing anything but extinction. It's an absolute inevitability, so let's enjoy it while we can, because nothing we do is going to prevent the inevitable.
 
spring-peeper said:
'It never stops': US farmers now face extreme heat wave after floods and trade war
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Pretty much. Friday morning I got up about 5 am and checked the temp. It was 84 F. It was 100 F by noon.

Meanwhile, I checked on things back home and found that there was new flooding there. The water came within 50 feet of the house and several trees came down in the storm. We're used to the back acre flooding, but I've never seen the creek flood that much in my lifetime. I'm told it flooded that bad once in the 1930's. It just rains so hard and so fast that the rivers can't handle it. So we're getting 100 F temps and flooding at the same time. Where I live they're handing out free fans and opened cooling centers to keep people without air conditioning cool.

I can't imagine that all of this isn't effecting crop yields. At 95 F a lot of crops won't pollinate. Look for a lot of farm sales and bankruptcies next year.
 
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farmerbarleymow said:
I read an article that explained that as the climate heats up, and CO2 concentration increases, the level of nutrients in crops will decline. Above a certain level of CO2 in the atmosphere, human cognitive abilities become affected too. We're basically fucked.
Click to expand...

One of the major extinctions was caused by such high concentrations of CO2 that anything larger than a mouse suffocated.

In any case, what humans are doing to the biosphere today is mostly without precedent in the geologic record and poised to be far worse than most previous extinctions, according to recent research:

  • Study finds “mass biodiversity collapse” at 900 ppm, and possibly a “threshold response … to relatively minor increases in CO2 concentration and/or global temperature.”
  • Nature Climate Change: “The proportion of actual biodiversity loss should quite clearly be revised upwards: by 2080, more than 80% of genetic diversity within species may disappear in certain groups of organisms“
  • Scientist: “When CO2 levels in the atmosphere reach about 500 parts per million, you put calcification out of business in the oceans”
  • A 2009 study in Nature Geoscience warned that global warming may create expanding “dead zones” in the ocean that would be devoid of fish and seafood and “remain for thousands of years.”
  • “Geological Society: Acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown “by end of century.”
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Doubling Of CO2 Levels In End-Triassic Extinction Killed Off Three Quarters Of Land And Sea Species
 
A recent report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the U.S has seen the wettest 12 months on record, with an average of 38 inches of rain falling from July 2018 to June 2019.

Adams put it in personal terms. "When I was a kid," he said, "an inch of rain, or an inch and a half of rain, was a big deal. Now it's like we get four- or five-inch rains all the time, or six-inch rains, even. That was unheard of."

"I'm not a climate change guy, as far as climate change, global warming, or any of that stuff," Adams said. "But have I seen the weather change in, say, my 20-year farming career? Absolutely."

In response to these troubling changes, some farmers in Nebraska are considering new solutions to keep their businesses afloat. One of those farmers, Graham Christensen, travels the country discussing a green farming initiative called regenerative farming.
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Lengthy video of interviews here:

"I'm not a climate change guy, but...": Farmers reckon with new reality in the heartland

They're a little slow in accepting climate change, but they are seeing the effects.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Just right to too hot. 29 is about perfect. :cool:

Good that farmers are finally catching up, but 'I'm not a climate change guy' is still a bit :facepalm:
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I think he understands more than he's letting on, but its not socially acceptable to admit it in such a deep red state. The science is clear and there shouldn't a be a political divide, but there is.

(I'm a little weird. I like the temp when its about 17 C. Or, maybe a little lower. )
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I think he understands more than he's letting on, but its not socially acceptable to admit it in such a deep red state.

(I'm a little weird. I like the temp when its about 17 C. Or, maybe a little lower. )
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17's ok. I'm from Wales. That's really a rather nice day in Wales. But I like not needing layers.
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I went over to the Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri line yesterday and nearly all of the roads between them are still closed. The corn crop still hasn't caught up with where it usually is by this time.
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Up in Eastern Ontario, we had a slow start in planting. After planting we got really hot weather for a while, and the plants got enough heat units to shoot up. (So says my neighbours)

My neighbour posted this last night.

corn.jpg
I would say the best part of a long day is a ride around your property corn is doing great
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Chinese companies halt purchases of US agricultural products - CNN

Chinese companies have halted purchases of US agricultural products, marking the latest escalation of the trade war between the United States and China.

The halt in purchases comes in response to the Trump administration's announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports last week, China's Commerce Ministry said Tuesday morning. The new 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports are set to take effect on September 1.

China's Commerce Ministry called the new tariffs a "serious violation of the consensus reached by the two countries' leaders in Osaka." At the June G20 meeting in Osaka, American and Chinese officials had agreed to a cease-fire in the trade war.
State media had earlier quoted officials as saying Chinese companies had ordered US agricultural products after the Osaka summit, but some deals fell through due to "competitive pricing."

China's State Council Customs Tariff Commission also said Tuesday morning it "will no longer exempt US agricultural products purchased after August 3 from import duties."
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