Egypt anti-government protests grow
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elbows
Well-Known Member
More on that protest lasw and some of the brutal stuff thats going on:
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/24/egypt.revolution/index.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/24/egypt.revolution/index.html
dylans
overlord of all acorns
(if anyone has not read my earlier post #5591 I suggest you do so before reading the following post)
In my earlier post about the MB I made the argument that far from being a radical threat to the democracy movement, the MB were a threat precisely because of the danger of them being used as a tool by the military to demobilise the mass movement and to act as a brake on the revolution. Events following the referendum have unfortunately shown my analysis to be correct.
As is known, despite the best efforts of many in the democracy movement who urged a no vote, the result of the referendum supported the constitutional amendments with a 77% yes vote. This is significant blow to those fighting for genuinely representative government because (again as I pointed out earlier) the military want to move towards elections quickly while many in the democracy movement want a slower move towards elections to give other forces time to organise and campaign. A yes vote gives the military authorities a green light to move towards elections soon, probably before September or October
The MB urged a yes vote for obvious reasons. They will be the party best fitted to benefit from early elections. They are organised and prepared for elections whereas other forces such as the youth movement are organisationally weak and ill prepared. As such elections will be presented as a contest between only 2 significant parties, the MB and the remnants of the NDP, both of which are the only forces with national organising capacity. Thus the Egyptian population will be faced with a choice deliberately engineered by the military of the MB or the old regime. The outcome is already obvious.
From the miltary point of view the choice of the MB makes perfect sense. The military have every reason to want order in place of the massive turmoil of recent months, they also want a regime hostile to the economic demands of the working class. Socially conservative and anti labour, the MB serve this role very well
It is interesting that the MB campaigned for a yes vote with a specifically anti secular message. "A yes vote is a religious duty" A no vote is a vote against religion" etc were common themes in their campaign. If the Western stereotype of the MB is as a theocratic bogey man, then the MB turned this on its head, caricaturing the NO campaign as a secret secular attempt to prohibit religion in Egypt. A MB vote yes referendum flyer read
Absurd yes but a mirror image of the caricature of themselves that Mubarak and the West have played on for years. Egypt is a religious country and there is no doubt that such fear mongering had an impact.
This was the intention of the constitutional amendments. They were a means by the military to empower the MB ahead of elections that they want them to win and there is increasing evidence that the terms of the referendum itself was a result of a deal between the military regime and the MB.
Last month when the new PM Essan Sharif , Essam Sharaf, addressed the crowd in Tahrir Square , Mohamed el-Beltagi, a prominent Brotherhood member, stood by his side. MB members were also appointed to the committee that drafted the constitutional amendments.
The image of the MB in Egypt were of an insidious secretive radical force, waiting in the wings to mobilise its membership to steal the revolution. This is the repeated stereotype of the MB throughout the revolution. As I pointed out earlier however, the threat doesn't come from the radicalisation of the MB but from its accomodation with the remnants of the old regime. It is their capacity to act as a deradicalising force that makes them attractive to the military, and precisely for this reason what makes them dangerous.
To fight this, the democratic movement has to respond by mobilising the one force they have been neglecting in the post military period. They should champion class demands, most importantly the demand for a minimum wage.
A demand opposed by the MB and a demand that has proven capable of igniting the imagination of millions of Egyptians many of whom live in less than $2.00 per day. The movement has been focussed on political demands, the end of the emergency laws, corruption etc, which though important are simply not important to the mass of Egyptians and anyway are demands that can be countered by the military with their claims that these issues will be dealt with in the future.
The Egyptian activist Sandmonkey made a similar argument in his analysis of the referendum results here
http://www.sandmonkey.org/
Economic demands are demands that are capable of mobilising the very force that removed Mubarak, the organised power of the industrial working class. Only this can now save Egypts revolution from the counter revolution of a military and Muslim brotherhood alliance. A mass mobilisation of workers around class demands and most importantly the launch of an independent party of the working class.
One final point. Lots has been said about the recent law banning protests. This is also strategic in light of the above attempts by the military to engineer elections to ensure a MB victory. The intention is to take political activism out of the streets and out of the factories where it remains an uncontrollable force and channel political activity, all political activity into Parliamentary politics. To make the parliamentary road, one engineered and controlled by them, the ONLY forum for political expression. In the post referendum period all legitimate politics will be channelled to this end. We can expect then that all political activity not directed to this end to be repressed.
In my earlier post about the MB I made the argument that far from being a radical threat to the democracy movement, the MB were a threat precisely because of the danger of them being used as a tool by the military to demobilise the mass movement and to act as a brake on the revolution. Events following the referendum have unfortunately shown my analysis to be correct.
As is known, despite the best efforts of many in the democracy movement who urged a no vote, the result of the referendum supported the constitutional amendments with a 77% yes vote. This is significant blow to those fighting for genuinely representative government because (again as I pointed out earlier) the military want to move towards elections quickly while many in the democracy movement want a slower move towards elections to give other forces time to organise and campaign. A yes vote gives the military authorities a green light to move towards elections soon, probably before September or October
The MB urged a yes vote for obvious reasons. They will be the party best fitted to benefit from early elections. They are organised and prepared for elections whereas other forces such as the youth movement are organisationally weak and ill prepared. As such elections will be presented as a contest between only 2 significant parties, the MB and the remnants of the NDP, both of which are the only forces with national organising capacity. Thus the Egyptian population will be faced with a choice deliberately engineered by the military of the MB or the old regime. The outcome is already obvious.
From the miltary point of view the choice of the MB makes perfect sense. The military have every reason to want order in place of the massive turmoil of recent months, they also want a regime hostile to the economic demands of the working class. Socially conservative and anti labour, the MB serve this role very well
It is interesting that the MB campaigned for a yes vote with a specifically anti secular message. "A yes vote is a religious duty" A no vote is a vote against religion" etc were common themes in their campaign. If the Western stereotype of the MB is as a theocratic bogey man, then the MB turned this on its head, caricaturing the NO campaign as a secret secular attempt to prohibit religion in Egypt. A MB vote yes referendum flyer read
Absurd yes but a mirror image of the caricature of themselves that Mubarak and the West have played on for years. Egypt is a religious country and there is no doubt that such fear mongering had an impact.
This was the intention of the constitutional amendments. They were a means by the military to empower the MB ahead of elections that they want them to win and there is increasing evidence that the terms of the referendum itself was a result of a deal between the military regime and the MB.
Last month when the new PM Essan Sharif , Essam Sharaf, addressed the crowd in Tahrir Square , Mohamed el-Beltagi, a prominent Brotherhood member, stood by his side. MB members were also appointed to the committee that drafted the constitutional amendments.
The image of the MB in Egypt were of an insidious secretive radical force, waiting in the wings to mobilise its membership to steal the revolution. This is the repeated stereotype of the MB throughout the revolution. As I pointed out earlier however, the threat doesn't come from the radicalisation of the MB but from its accomodation with the remnants of the old regime. It is their capacity to act as a deradicalising force that makes them attractive to the military, and precisely for this reason what makes them dangerous.
To fight this, the democratic movement has to respond by mobilising the one force they have been neglecting in the post military period. They should champion class demands, most importantly the demand for a minimum wage.
A demand opposed by the MB and a demand that has proven capable of igniting the imagination of millions of Egyptians many of whom live in less than $2.00 per day. The movement has been focussed on political demands, the end of the emergency laws, corruption etc, which though important are simply not important to the mass of Egyptians and anyway are demands that can be countered by the military with their claims that these issues will be dealt with in the future.
The Egyptian activist Sandmonkey made a similar argument in his analysis of the referendum results here
http://www.sandmonkey.org/
Economic demands are demands that are capable of mobilising the very force that removed Mubarak, the organised power of the industrial working class. Only this can now save Egypts revolution from the counter revolution of a military and Muslim brotherhood alliance. A mass mobilisation of workers around class demands and most importantly the launch of an independent party of the working class.
One final point. Lots has been said about the recent law banning protests. This is also strategic in light of the above attempts by the military to engineer elections to ensure a MB victory. The intention is to take political activism out of the streets and out of the factories where it remains an uncontrollable force and channel political activity, all political activity into Parliamentary politics. To make the parliamentary road, one engineered and controlled by them, the ONLY forum for political expression. In the post referendum period all legitimate politics will be channelled to this end. We can expect then that all political activity not directed to this end to be repressed.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I don't remember protests being freely allowed under Mubarak.
Actually, you touch on something important here. It is true that the emergency law legislation already contains provision for the banning of protests and strikes. It was one of Mubaraks most important instruments of repression and has been in force since the 1967 Egypt Israel war and continuously extended every 3 years since Sadat's assassination in 1981. (it was briefly lifted in 1980).
Now the key question then is why the military feel the need for separate and distinct legislation banning protests when emergency law is still in force. I think there are a number of reasons that we can speculate on.
One reason could be that the emergency law has been comprehensively trodden on. After all under EL the very demonstrations that brought down Mubarak were outlawed. The military may feel that attempting to ban protests under this law will be widely ignored.
The second and more comprehensive reason is that the military, like the rest of Egyptian society, have adopted the language and symbolism of the revolution and may feel that relying on Emergency law would serve to highlight the continuity of the military regime with the old order rather than emphasise what the military wish to present, namely the discontinuity and final victory of the "revolution that they supposedly represent. The fact that the emergency law is still in force of course gives the lie to claims of discontinuity but remember we are talking about symbolism, narrative, language, image and presentation rather than reality. In short the emergency law was very much Mubarak's baby (though he wasn't the first to institute it- that was Sadat) It ran for the entirety of his Presidency and It will always be associated with his rule, it stains it from start to finish.
Which brings us to the third point. The end of emergency law is and has always been one of the key demands of Tahrir and as such may, if pressure is strong enough, be an act that the military may be prepared to jettison. As such the military may be thinking long term and enacting legislation that will survive such a situation.
These are just speculation of course and I am sure there are other reasons that could be given.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Actually I've changed my mind, as it is claimed that the new law only works so long as emergency law in in force, according to the article about the new law that was linked to earlier in this thread.
So perhaps its more about having legislation that specifically targets strikes, and trying to build an additional layer of 'legitimacy' around the strikebreaking that I assume the powers that be desperately want to enforce.
So perhaps its more about having legislation that specifically targets strikes, and trying to build an additional layer of 'legitimacy' around the strikebreaking that I assume the powers that be desperately want to enforce.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Interesting. Yeah I think my second point is the most likely. The need for legislation that is geared towards the future and which emphasises discontinuity rather than continuity.
Everything is aimed at early elections. This is the heart of the military's pacification strategy. Elections to them represent the end of the revolution and will be presented as "victory". As I argued in my previous posts about the Muslim brotherhood, the military have a strategy to engineer elections which guarantee a Muslim Brotherhood election victory and key to that is the pacification of street based (or industry based) political activity and the funnelling of politics into the electoral arena.
All is geared towards elections in September (though interestingly there is no mention of a date for Presidential elections)and for that the military want to rely on legislation that emphasises the discontinuity with the past. Hence this legislation. In a nutshell it is theirs and not Mubarak's and as such can be justified by the need for the country to get back on its feet, fix the economy etc. Whether it survives the elimination of the emergency law is to be seen. I am betting it or something like it will remain with the justification being the economy etc.
On the question of emergency law. I think it will be abolished. I just read this
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/n...ve-emergency-law-ahead-of-September-elections
What I touched on was the fact that if one protest can lead to the end of a dictatorship, it can, at any time, get rid of another, regardless of artificial Laws.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Well yes but they haven't actually got rid of the old regime yet have they? They have just stripped away the civilian face of the dictatorship. The military are part of the old order. As teqniq's post so dramatically demonstrates, they are now facing the naked face of military rule with it's civilian trimmings stripped away. As ruthless and brutal as ever
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
there was some footage last night of torture of rebels by gadaffi soldiers on Al-Jazeera. I wished I never watched the fucking thing as I got a bad nights sleep afterwards
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
Another demo in Tahir square today. This time calling for prosecution of Mubarak
Pic here of soldiers joining the demo despite orders not to do so:
Pic here of soldiers joining the demo despite orders not to do so:
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Twitter is reporting a tense atmosphere in Tahrir after todays massive demonstration. The group of soldiers who joined the protests are being protected by protestors and barricades have been built. Here are a few twitter posts.
damakary Adam Makary
Army officers in #tahrir asking the protesters to spend the night at the square, they're afraid they'll get executed #jan25
5 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
@Sandmonkey 1 MP car tried to enter the square, protesters stopped it, sent it back and are now marching towards the Museum.
3 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Sandmonkey The Revolutionary Military officers are still in #Tahrir. Protesters are gathered around them, protecting them. #Jan25 #Egypt
3 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
@Sandmonkey Some protesters attempting to enter the Museum in #Tahrir and possibly attack Military Police: http://twitpic.com/4ife3a
The situation in Tahrir is tense as protesters say they are going to stay to protect the soldiers who joined them today. #Egypt
2 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
RT @fazerofzanight Tents are up in #tahrir a few thousand left, ppl moving rocks to borders 4 expected attack #jan25
RT @AmrBassiouny: people in #tahrir setting up barricades for the night. Two buses full of military police hidden nearby. #Jan25 #Egypt
2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
aninegypt: Protesters chased away the military police after they tried 2 arrest those soldiers who joined the protest in Tahrir. #egypt
35 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply
damakary Adam Makary
Army officers in #tahrir asking the protesters to spend the night at the square, they're afraid they'll get executed #jan25
5 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
@Sandmonkey 1 MP car tried to enter the square, protesters stopped it, sent it back and are now marching towards the Museum.
3 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Sandmonkey The Revolutionary Military officers are still in #Tahrir. Protesters are gathered around them, protecting them. #Jan25 #Egypt
3 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
@Sandmonkey Some protesters attempting to enter the Museum in #Tahrir and possibly attack Military Police: http://twitpic.com/4ife3a
The situation in Tahrir is tense as protesters say they are going to stay to protect the soldiers who joined them today. #Egypt
2 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
RT @fazerofzanight Tents are up in #tahrir a few thousand left, ppl moving rocks to borders 4 expected attack #jan25
RT @AmrBassiouny: people in #tahrir setting up barricades for the night. Two buses full of military police hidden nearby. #Jan25 #Egypt
2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
aninegypt: Protesters chased away the military police after they tried 2 arrest those soldiers who joined the protest in Tahrir. #egypt
35 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply
bolshiebhoy
socialism leinster drink
Heroes all of them. When everything else fails in our lives the egyptian revolution keeps hope alive. My abiding hope in life is the major who spoke to the crowd the night Hosni gave the 2 fingers to his people. That is what revolution is all about.
It's all kicked off again in Tahrir Square, but as this does not fit the narrative the BBC is blanking it.
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
Tweet:
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
Tweet:
This being the same Egyptian military government supplying the 'rebels' in Libya, much beloved of Cameron, Clegg and Divisive Cotton.
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
fuck off you tedious cunt - don't destroy this thread like all the others
What? Anti-CIA comments not allowed? You're not the censor.
Has the new Egyptian regime been supplying the 'rebels' in Benghazi? Y/N
Has the new Egyptian regime been supplying the 'rebels' in Benghazi? Y/N
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
ern go and mark some schoolbooks
your school children need you lol
your school children need you lol
You are a right TORY cock. Avoiding the question again.
And leave out personal remarks about my job. What's your job, TORYboy?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Don't wreck this thread. I have put a lot of effort into this and it is IMPORTANT., So fuck off
He started the off-topic shit in reply to my criticism of the Egyptian military. Maybe you could answer on his behalf as he has cried off. Have the Benghazi 'rebels' been getting supplies from this Egyptian military regime?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
The new york times has an article here on the events last night.
Al Jaz is reporting ten of thousands are gathering in Tahrir after last nights fighting. The military captured some soldiers but some got away. The square is still in the hands of protesters.
There are a couple of things to watch with this today. The first is the Muslim Brotherhood. Last night when demonstrators in Tahrir needed maximum solidarity, they organised a demonstration at the Israeli embassy over Gaza. This was a deliberate and cynical attempt to break the solidarity around Tahrir. They know that Palestinine strikes a chord with Egyptians and are using the unfolding Gaza situation to divert attention from the growing confrontation with the military.
The second thing to watch is the numbers in the square. Ten of thousands may seem impressive but remember there are 25 million people in Cairo, there are serious weaknesses with the democracy movement right now, particularly its continued focus on purely political demands and demands for the removal of the military Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, He's a Mubarak man of course, but then so is the entire military top brass. The question then is whether Tahrir can mobilise substantial numbers around political demands against the military alone. It would be a mistake to over estimate the willingness of the Egyptian population to stand against the military. They remain popular across the country and I can't help feeling this could be a set up to turn the population against the youth movement.
The youth movement has been criticised and imo rightly for neglecting economic demands and it is precisely such economic demands that have the potential to inspire the Egyptian working class. In a country where half the population earns $2.00 per day. The demand for a national minimum wage is a demand that ordinary workers need and a demand that can mobilise not tens of thousands but millions. As of yet this has been neglected by the youth movement in favour of political demands that may not be as inspirational or be seen as an important priority by large sections of the population. Going against the military on purely political demands has the potential to split and isolate the movement ahead of a crackdown by the military
If I am right and this is a set up. I think we can make a prediction about what is about to happen. The military will play this as an attempt by counter revolutionaries" to divide the army and the people. Probably blaming events on the NDP or something. (Orwellian yes but language that strikes a chord in a country where the army are respected) Expect groups of civilian thugs and anti Tahrir demonstrations to begin and the army to issue a call for the population to "defend the unity of the army and people" by opposing the Tahrir demonstrators. Expect mass demonstrations AGAINST the Tahrir demonstrators and expect an attack on Tahrir not by the military but by the usual thuggish suspects using the cover of the demonstrations. Expect the MB to support such a crackdown.This could be bad and I don't think the youth movement has the numbers or support to oppose it. The one force with the power to stand against this is the organised working class and this is precisely the sector that has been neglected by Tahrir. This could be the beginning of the counter revolution
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/04/08/world/middleeast/AP-ML-Egypt.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/20114921821599558.html
Al Jaz is reporting ten of thousands are gathering in Tahrir after last nights fighting. The military captured some soldiers but some got away. The square is still in the hands of protesters.
There are a couple of things to watch with this today. The first is the Muslim Brotherhood. Last night when demonstrators in Tahrir needed maximum solidarity, they organised a demonstration at the Israeli embassy over Gaza. This was a deliberate and cynical attempt to break the solidarity around Tahrir. They know that Palestinine strikes a chord with Egyptians and are using the unfolding Gaza situation to divert attention from the growing confrontation with the military.
The second thing to watch is the numbers in the square. Ten of thousands may seem impressive but remember there are 25 million people in Cairo, there are serious weaknesses with the democracy movement right now, particularly its continued focus on purely political demands and demands for the removal of the military Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, He's a Mubarak man of course, but then so is the entire military top brass. The question then is whether Tahrir can mobilise substantial numbers around political demands against the military alone. It would be a mistake to over estimate the willingness of the Egyptian population to stand against the military. They remain popular across the country and I can't help feeling this could be a set up to turn the population against the youth movement.
The youth movement has been criticised and imo rightly for neglecting economic demands and it is precisely such economic demands that have the potential to inspire the Egyptian working class. In a country where half the population earns $2.00 per day. The demand for a national minimum wage is a demand that ordinary workers need and a demand that can mobilise not tens of thousands but millions. As of yet this has been neglected by the youth movement in favour of political demands that may not be as inspirational or be seen as an important priority by large sections of the population. Going against the military on purely political demands has the potential to split and isolate the movement ahead of a crackdown by the military
If I am right and this is a set up. I think we can make a prediction about what is about to happen. The military will play this as an attempt by counter revolutionaries" to divide the army and the people. Probably blaming events on the NDP or something. (Orwellian yes but language that strikes a chord in a country where the army are respected) Expect groups of civilian thugs and anti Tahrir demonstrations to begin and the army to issue a call for the population to "defend the unity of the army and people" by opposing the Tahrir demonstrators. Expect mass demonstrations AGAINST the Tahrir demonstrators and expect an attack on Tahrir not by the military but by the usual thuggish suspects using the cover of the demonstrations. Expect the MB to support such a crackdown.This could be bad and I don't think the youth movement has the numbers or support to oppose it. The one force with the power to stand against this is the organised working class and this is precisely the sector that has been neglected by Tahrir. This could be the beginning of the counter revolution
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/04/08/world/middleeast/AP-ML-Egypt.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/20114921821599558.html
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