Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

[phildwyer]

I think that this is probably true. A lot of people see Trump as a nasty bully but are happy that he is being a nasty bully to horrible people who they hate, and he is doing that.

Aye. People in the UK often under-estimate how much Americans despise the political establishment--although this election has already offered plenty of evidence. And the thing is, everything Trump says about Hillary and her wretched liberal supporters is true! It's not only true--it badly needs to be said, it needs to be shouted from the rooftops. People will vote for whoever does that the loudest.

 

[weltweit]

As I say, it depends on what we're calling the "base."

If we say that Trump's "base" is working-class white people, then obviously he would win if 100% of his base votes. As would Hillary if 100% of her putative "base" turns out. Trump is grounding his campaign on the assumption that, if he is horrible enough to the people they (rightly) despise, his base will be sufficiently excited that more of them will vote than Hillary's. He believes he can disregard those outside this core of support and still win.

And I do believe he' right about that. Never make the mistake of thinking Trump stupid. He's anything but.

If his core white working class ..

That is the thing, here in the UK a majority of the population are working class (at least I think so) and the Labour party does its best to represent them, which begs the question, how is it Labour keeps not getting elected?

 

[J Ed]

Aye. People in the UK often under-estimate how much Americans despise the political establishment--although this election has already offered plenty of evidence. And the thing is, everything Trump says about Hillary and her wretched liberal supporters is true! It's not only true--it badly needs to be said, it needs to be shouted from the rooftops. People will vote for whoever does that the loudest.

I think that the going back on Libya thing was very strange. He was on to an electoral winner when he was mixing up the Benghazi conspiracy nonsense with anti-intervention rhetoric. I suspect that some sort of quid pro quo must have been done over foreign policy in return for the endorsement of so many Republican hawks.

 

[Buckaroo]

If his core white working class ..

That is the thing, here in the UK a majority of the population are working class (at least I think so) and the Labour party does its best to represent them, which begs the question, how is it Labour keeps not getting elected?

Eh? Are you fucking insane? Oh sorry you were joking etc!

 

[weltweit]

Eh? Are you fucking insane? Oh sorry you were joking etc!

I was being semi serious I wonder how many people are in each group though .. off to have a look on the net ...

 

[phildwyer]

I think that the going back on Libya thing was very strange. He was on to an electoral winner when he was mixing up the Benghazi conspiracy nonsense with anti-intervention rhetoric. I suspect that some sort of quid pro quo must have been done over foreign policy in return for the endorsement of so many Republican hawks.

It does make one wonder. Presumably all kinds of deals are now being cut, as people come to terms with the prospect of President Trump. But he can't be blatant about it without damaging his image as the Anti-politician.

 

[8den]

It does make one wonder. Presumably all kinds of deals are now being cut, as people come to terms with the prospect of President Trump. But he can't be blatant about it without damaging his image as the Anti-politician.

If anything this week has been littered with republicans including potential running mates disavowing Trump

 

[newbie]

A lot of people see Trump as a nasty bully but are happy that he is being a nasty bully to horrible people who they hate, and he is doing that.

Really? Muslims, Mexicans, women journalists.... he's currently trying to bully a 'Mexican' judge (who is really from Indiana). You don't think those are horrible people (I assume) any more than I do or the vast majority of Yanks do.

 

[J Ed]

Really? Muslims, Mexicans, women journalists.... he's currently trying to bully a 'Mexican' judge (who is really from Indiana). You don't think those are horrible people (I assume) any more than I do or the vast majority of Yanks do.

Well some of his supporters undoubtedly are motivated by his veiled and less veiled xenophobic, misogynist and racist attacks but I'm obviously referring to the more overt attacks on members of the corrupt political class.

 

[newbie]

Well some of his supporters undoubtedly are motivated by his veiled and less veiled xenophobic, misogynist and racist attacks but I'm obviously referring to the more overt attacks on members of the corrupt political class.

Ok, but even so, are you sure that isn't projection?

Trump has taken 13m votes so far but Clinton has 15.5m. She's the epitome of the political class. His 3 biggest republican opponents, also political class, took over 15m votes between them. Sanders has 12m- he's something of an outsider for sure, but he's been in national politics since 1991 so he's as much part of political class as anyone (so's Corbyn come to that).

The mood in the US may be radical, as Phil suggested, but like most 'mood' observations it ignores all the little people that no-one cares about. They have been consistently voting in favour of the political class.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Republican Popular Vote
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Democratic Popular Vote

 

[mwgdrwg]

How high is Trump's wall going to be then? Haven't had an update about it's ever-growing height for a while.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well some of his supporters undoubtedly are motivated by his veiled and less veiled xenophobic, misogynist and racist attacks but I'm obviously referring to the more overt attacks on members of the corrupt political class.

Even those of his supporters not motivated by his variously xenophobic, misogynist or racist attacks are clearly not bothered by such attacks.

I wonder how much of Trump's support is a reaction to Obama among racist people, even if their reaction may not be cast in explicitly racist terms.

He tried to foist government on us.

With the unspoken bit:

That's what happens when you let a black man into the White House.

 

[krtek a houby]

 

[two sheds]

I wouldn't like to be an American who's offended Trump at any point in the past if he does get in.

 

[krtek a houby]

Even those of his supporters not motivated by his variously xenophobic, misogynist or racist attacks are clearly not bothered by such attacks.

I wonder how much of Trump's support is a reaction to Obama among racist people, even if their reaction may not be cast in explicitly racist terms.

He tried to foist government on us.

With the unspoken bit:

That's what happens when you let a black man into the White House.

Yeah; that whole "make America great again" spiel. It feels racist in vibes. More like "make America grate again", the bastards.

 

[newbie]

Even those of his supporters not motivated by his variously xenophobic, misogynist or racist attacks are clearly not bothered by such attacks.

I wonder how much of Trump's support is a reaction to Obama among racist people, even if their reaction may not be cast in explicitly racist terms.

aye that's true

Obama wasn't of the political class. From my perspective he appears to have been outmaneuvered by them throughout his term.

 

[Yossarian]

aye that's true

Obama wasn't of the political class. From my perspective he appears to have been outmaneuvered by them throughout his term.

Wonder how things might have worked out if Clinton had won the nomination in 2008 and Barack Obama was now running for president with an extra 8 years experience in the Senate.

 

[J Ed]

Even those of his supporters not motivated by his variously xenophobic, misogynist or racist attacks are clearly not bothered by such attacks.

I wonder how much of Trump's support is a reaction to Obama among racist people, even if their reaction may not be cast in explicitly racist terms.

He tried to foist government on us.

With the unspoken bit:

That's what happens when you let a black man into the White House.

There's been eight years of deliberate conflation of the consequences of neoliberal economic policy with immigration and, I agree, Obama in the most racialised sense. A lot of white Americans believe that they are losing out to minorities as opposed to the reality of the situation in which everyone barring the rich is losing out, only black Americans have lost out more than anyone and were in a more precarious position in the first place.

Economic and racial anxiety: Two separate forces driving support for Donald Trump

That being said, this stuff is inextricable from overall beliefs about a more generalised political corruption. You can hold nonsensical racist views about Obama's birthplace and also have perfectly valid concerns about Wall Street or the ACA and the same is true of the Republican politicians who Trump has mostly aimed his vitriol at.

I should probably reiterate here that I do not like Trump, and actually I think the world would be a better place if Clinton won not least because a Trump win would legitimise racism and xenophobia on a scale difficult to currently imagine.

 

[J Ed]

aye that's true

Obama wasn't of the political class. From my perspective he appears to have been outmaneuvered by them throughout his term.

I think it would be nice to believe that but it isn't true really, he campaigned in 2008 very far to the left of both how he has governed and I suspect his own political positions. The Democrats had a chance to push through single payer in Obama's first term and it could have been done, it could have been led by someone like David Axelrod but instead right-wingers like Jim Messina (who would later join the Tory election campaign here in 2015) and Rahm Emanuel were appointed to oversee the process and ensure that there was no single-payer option.

 

[newbie]

I think it would be nice to believe that but it isn't true really, he campaigned in 2008 very far to the left of both how he has governed and I suspect his own political positions. The Democrats had a chance to push through single payer in Obama's first term and it could have been done, it could have been led by someone like David Axelrod but instead right-wingers like Jim Messina (who would later join the Tory election campaign here in 2015) and Rahm Emanuel were appointed to oversee the process and ensure that there was no single-payer option.

you think he deliberately sabotaged his own presidency by appointing people to frustrate what he promised and what his supporters thought he was elected to do?

That's even more cynical than I can muster, but you study these things more closely than I.

 

[J Ed]

you think he deliberately sabotaged his own presidency by appointing people to frustrate what he promised and what his supporters thought he was elected to do?

That's even more cynical than I can muster, but you study these things more closely than I.

I don't think that he would consider it sabotage, Obama may well believe the private sector to be superior generally since he has consistently pushed it in all areas especially secondary education, but I don't think that single payer was ever really on the table after the 2008 campaign was finished. The next best hope of a single payer option in the US is at the state level and consultants from the Democratic Party are heavily involved in opposing that effort.

 

[DotCommunist]

I was reminded when greyjohn of house major chipped in with the NHS not safe blah about brexit of the US healthcare issues and got annoyed again at how transparently they use the NHS here as a political football. Fucking vote how we say or forget granny's hip replacement. And anyway we can't wait to get it sold off, plebs.

 

[TomUS]

The Democrats had a chance to push through single payer in Obama's first term and it could have been done, it could have been led by someone like David Axelrod but instead right-wingers like Jim Messina (who would later join the Tory election campaign here in 2015) and Rahm Emanuel were appointed to oversee the process and ensure that there was no single-payer option.

Actually single payer wasn't proposed by the Obama admin because it had no chance in congress which is heavily influenced by the health ins industry. Even Obamacare barely passed.

 

[J Ed]

Actually single payer wasn't proposed by the Obama admin because it had no chance in congress which is heavily influenced by the health ins industry. Even Obamacare barely passed.

Dems had a 60 seat majority, the fact they didn't even try to pass single payer shows how corrupt that party is.

 

[phildwyer]

Dems had a 60 seat majority, the fact they didn't even try to pass single payer shows how corrupt that party is.

It's not a matter of corruption. The Democrats are a pro-capitalist party, they're just doing what comes naturally. The error lies with people who expect them to do anything different.

 

[Sea Star]

If his core white working class ..

That is the thing, here in the UK a majority of the population are working class (at least I think so) and the Labour party does its best to represent them, which begs the question, how is it Labour keeps not getting elected?

Because they keep thinking they need to go after middle class votes first...?

 

[TomUS]

Dems had a 60 seat majority, the fact they didn't even try to pass single payer shows how corrupt that party is.

The whole system is corrupt. Sixty seats is just the exact # required to override a Repub filibuster. I Recall Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee being asked why single payer wasn't on the table. He said 'because it has no chance & I see no reason to propose something that has no chance.' Public option might have had some chance but that's doubtful. Obamacare was the best that could have been gotten at the time.

 

[Vintage Paw]

This will become a talking point.

 

[8den]

What are you on about? Where is this coming from?

Remind us about your plane journey with a hitman?

 

[Buckaroo]

Remind us about your plane journey with a hitman?

Mossad assassin's girlfriend IIRC etc