Climate Change

[yield]

Scorched earth: the world battles extreme weather
FT 27/07/18

Thanasis Kontidis was hosing down the veranda of his family’s summer home in Mati on Monday afternoon when he caught a whiff of acrid smoke. “I looked up and saw the sky was a beige colour so I knew there was a fire somewhere. But I didn’t realise it was getting close.”

Half an hour later the 22-year-old university student was fleeing for his life.

“The wind was gusting in different directions and there was an orange glow in the distance,” he says. “I soaked one of my mother’s scarves, tied it over my nose and mouth and grabbed my phone. Then I got in the car and tried to get away.”

But the narrow streets of the Greek seaside resort surrounded by pine forests were already jammed with vehicles rushing to escape the fire. Mr Kontidis abandoned his car and started running towards the sea.

While he survived, 87 people were killed in the blazes in and around Athens, with 100 still missing. The blaze was unprecedented for Greece, officials say. But it is one of several freak fire and extreme heat events from Canada to Portugal and Japan over the past year that have raised alarm about the impact of changing weather patterns on people’s lives.

Climate change is an “accelerant” for these fires, according to the scientists who study them, although it is not the only reason. Urbanisation, changing land use patterns, the arrival of invasive species and even austerity are contributory factors. There have been more than 450 fires covering land of more than 30 hectares in Europe so far this year, according to EU data, which is 40 per cent higher than the average over the past decade.

While fires are common in some parts of the world such as California and Australia, what is unusual about this year is that these disasters are happening in different places, catching people unawares. Fires burning inside the Arctic Circle are the result of drought and heat that have made forests there unusually combustible. Peat lands in the UK, traditionally protected from blazes by moisture, have also been burning amid a heatwave. In the US, the annual average number of large fires has doubled since the 1970s, and this week Yosemite Valley, a national park in California, was evacuated due to a nearby fire.

“There are a lot of extreme fire events occurring,” says David Bowman, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Tasmania. He points to the Thomas fire that ravaged Los Angeles’ suburbs and freak fires in central Chile last year. “It’s not normal — I shouldn’t be overwhelmed with opportunities to study extreme fire events.”

There is also a growing understanding of their cost. The recent fires have highlighted some of these, both economic and human: 87 people dead in Athens, $100m worth of forests burnt in Sweden and more than $2bn spent on fire fighting in the US last year. “With each extreme weather event, we get new information for our actuarial models for how likely these events are and their cost,” says Trevor Houser, co-director of Climate Impact Lab.

In Sweden, authorities have struggled to respond because their firefighting force is not sufficient to handle blazes of such size — the burnt area is 40 times greater than the annual average in the country over the past decade, and the fires are still burning out of control. Other European countries have sent in assistance.

In Greece, which had not suffered a prolonged heatwave before the blaze, the dense illegal housing, high winds and slow response from authorities were key reasons why the fires became so devastating, says Efthymios Lekkas, an Athens university tectonics and geology professor. The impact was worsened because its emergency services have faced severe budget cuts during the country’s financial crisis. Local government officials in Mati also failed this year to complete an annual clearing of undergrowth required by law, leaving a thick layer of combustible pine needles and dead branches on pavements and in public spaces around the resort.

“You need a number of ingredients, for wildfires in particular. Climate change is only one factor, but it is a very important factor,” says Rowan Sutton, director of climate research for the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Research. “If it is hotter and drier, the risk is greater.”

Climate change is central to scientists’ understanding of which areas are likely to face greater fire risks in the future. Areas such as the forests in the UK are expected to see an increase in fires as conditions become hotter.

This summer’s fires come at a time of growing concern about extreme weather events that have lashed the planet, from hurricanes, to heatwaves, to floods. While specific weather events cannot be directly attributed to the rising levels of carbon in the atmosphere, there is a correlation between climate change and the increasing frequency of these natural disasters.

However, calculating the economic impact of climate change remains a field that is part art, part science, because of the great uncertainties about how much, and how rapidly, global temperatures and weather patterns will change.

Lloyds, the London-based insurance market, estimates that as much as $123bn in global gross domestic product in cities could be at risk from the impact of a warming planet, including windstorms and floods.

“People are starting to have the feeling that it might be a lot worse than some of the estimates suggest,” says Mr Fankhauser, referring to the economic modelling. “Now that you experience it, [it] feels a bit more unpleasant than what the models would have said”.

On average, richer countries in the northern hemisphere will see less negative impacts than poorer countries closer to the equator, according to the study in Nature. Some countries could even benefit. For example in Sweden, global warming could mean more sunshine and faster-growing forests, providing a boost to its timber industry.

Stephane Hallegatte, a senior economist in the World Bank’s climate change group, says one of the things that will determine the cost of climate change is how quickly people adapt and prepare for a warmer world.

“If you assume that nobody acts until there is a disaster, then with the same change in physical conditions you can have a very high cost,” he says.

“The key thing is to see this fire in Sweden not as a Swedish event. People in different parts of the world, say Canada or Russia, should look at this and think this is exactly what they have to expect.”

Like other aspects of climate change, adapting to fire risk is difficult: the cost can be hard for societies to accept, when there is a perception that the risks are uncertain. Prof Bowman, the fire scientist, says building codes and urban design need to take fire risks into account. Better land management and landscape features such as fire breaks, parks and golf courses can help reduce fire risk in some areas.

“We haven’t got time to debate things, we really need to move into the adaptive mode. But there are . . . always reasons to kick the can down the road,” he says, adding that countries are moving far too slowly to address growing fire risks.

“So our adaptive process will be a zigzag reacting to fire disasters. It is heartbreaking, but unfortunately that seems to be the trajectory we are on, we will just have to deal with more death and destruction.”

Capital's view. Could be bad for business...

“There are a lot of extreme fire events occurring,” says David Bowman, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Tasmania. He points to the Thomas fire that ravaged Los Angeles’ suburbs and freak fires in central Chile last year. “It’s not normal — I shouldn’t be overwhelmed with opportunities to study extreme fire events.”

 

[Ralph Llama]

Noam Chomsky on the escalating climate situation and the urgency this should be met with.

NOAM CHOMSKY: The World Geological Society finally settled on the end of World War II as the onset of the Anthropocene—sharp escalation and destruction of the environment, not only global warming, carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases, but also such things as plastics in the ocean, which are predicted to be greater than the weight of fish in the ocean not far in the future.

So we’re destroying the environment for organized human life. We’re threatening a terminal disaster with regular nuclear confrontations. Anybody who has looked at the record, which is shocking, would have to conclude that it’s a miracle that we’ve survived this long. Humans beings, right now, this generation, for the first time in history, have to ask, “Will human life survive?” And not in the far future will organized societies—those are the issues we should be concerned with. Everything else pales in significance in comparison with this.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Scorched earth: the world battles extreme weather
FT 27/07/18








Capital's view. Could be bad for business...

“There are a lot of extreme fire events occurring,” says David Bowman, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Tasmania. He points to the Thomas fire that ravaged Los Angeles’ suburbs and freak fires in central Chile last year. “It’s not normal — I shouldn’t be overwhelmed with opportunities to study extreme fire events.”

The new abnormal.

We were telt this was gonna happen. And this is just 0.8C above preindustrial (the 1C figures going round are the ENSO positive years). Its not the end of civilisation or the mass die of of humanity the clowns online will tell you. Its the steady accumulation of severe weather events impacting agriculture, daily lives, economic growth and when sea level starts increasing in rate of rise, areas that can be inhabited.

And yet renewables are becoming as cheap as new fossil fuel generating capacity, grid scale storage is now competitive with gas peaker plants, the EV is arriving fast.

We have the tools, we lack the will to avoid the 450ppm that would see us hit a 50% or greater chance of exceeding 2C warming.

Perhaps that sums up our politics as well, the new abnormal?

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

This is a photo from an airliner of the fires in California:

 

[Signal 11]

This is a photo from an airliner of the fires in California:

It's a sunset photo:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/clouds-over-california-wildfires/

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

It's a sunset photo:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/clouds-over-california-wildfires/

Thanks! I usually check those things, but who would have thought people would waste their time on that.

It's still a cool photo.

 

[Ralph Llama]

over 100 forest fires happening in the U.S.A. now according to Amy Goodman

 

[teqniq]

US accused of blocking UN climate talks amid protests

 

[ferrelhadley]

While not climate per se there are quite a few tropical storms active in the world right now.




Florence has the potential to be devastating on the US east seaboard. Potentially making landfall at category 4. I do not think there is a actual weather or tropical storm there so I guess it goes in here. God speed all in the path of these storms.

 

[teqniq]

I'm striking from school to protest inaction on climate change – you should too | Greta Thunberg

 

[ice-is-forming]

Queensland is on fire, and now there's a tropical cyclone forming off the coast

 

[teqniq]

The 'climate diaspora' trying to save the Paris agreement from Trump

 

[Poot]

I went to a water conference last week. What surprised me is that the 25 year plans now treat climate change as an absolute fact. We are preparing for more flooding and drought (mostly flooding), and there is no question of this not happening, even amongst those who you could absolutely imagine saying 'Pah! Climate change? Load of old nonsense!'. Even the tweediest, toriest right-wingers never even questioned that the future is all about damage limitation. And it doesn't look good. There are new protocols being introduced at speed to ensure that responsibility can be taken at local level for erosion and the increasing number of flood plains.

 

[Argonia]

An interesting interview just now on Five Live about geo-engineering.

 

[teqniq]

Tackle climate or face financial crash, say world's biggest investors

 

[stavros]

Meanwhile, Russia, the Saudis, Kuwait and the US have tried to dilute a statement from Katowice.

 

[2hats]

The east Antarctic ice sheet has long appeared relatively impervious to the climatic change that has clearly affected other glaciated regions (west Antarctic, Greenland), though there have been hints of its susceptibility to past warming episodes in the fossil record. However, new research, using recent and latest satellite data,indicates it is melting and clearly at in increasingly alarming rate. Ice mass loss rate has increased several fold in the last decade (glacier thickness reducing):

BBC News article.

These drainage basins have the capacity to raise global sea levels by 28 metres (four times the contribution of melting the Greenland ice sheet), which makes for an interesting map of the UK:

Don’t get too attached to London, Cambridge, York or numerous coastal towns, cities. Nor a lot of important farmland. Globally something like 0.75 billion people directly affected ie displaced (but that’s just based on current population levels/distributions).

 

[NoXion]

The east Antarctic ice sheet has long appeared relatively impervious to the climatic change that has clearly affected other glaciated regions (west Antarctic, Greenland), though there have been hints of its susceptibility to past warming episodes in the fossil record. However, new research, using recent and latest satellite data,indicates it is melting and clearly at in increasingly alarming rate. Ice mass loss rate has increased several fold in the last decade (glacier thickness reducing):

BBC News article.

These drainage basins have the capacity to raise global sea levels by 28 metres (four times the contribution of melting the Greenland ice sheet), which makes for an interesting map of the UK:
View attachment 155221
Don’t get too attached to London, Cambridge, York or numerous coastal towns, cities. Nor a lot of important farmland. Globally something like 0.75 billion people directly affected ie displaced (but that’s just based on current population levels/distributions).

What kind of time-frame are we looking at with regards to sea level rises? What is the present and currently projected rate of increase?

My understanding was it was something on the order of a 2 metre rise by 2099.

 

[2hats]

What kind of time-frame are we looking at with regards to sea level rises? What is the present and currently projected rate of increase?

My understanding was it was something on the order of a 2 metre rise by 2099.

I await the corresponding paper. Since this is new, additional input the rate of projected sea rise would increase (timescale for a given rise decrease).

 

[ferrelhadley]

These drainage basins have the capacity to raise global sea levels by 28 metres (four times the contribution of melting the Greenland ice sheet), which makes for an interesting map of the UK:
View attachment 155221
Don’t get too attached to London, Cambridge, York or numerous coastal towns, cities. Nor a lot of important farmland. Globally something like 0.75 billion people directly affected ie displaced (but that’s just based on current population levels/distributions).

East Antarctica is expected to have a very limited impact on global sea level rise, especially given that as oceans warm, they will bring more precipitation to the region that will fall as snow. (Figure adapted from table 5.3, chapter 13 IPCC AR5).

I am not quite sure how your mate of the UK showing what 5 or 10m sea level rise and this research are linked.

Unless I am wrong it does not seem to suggest we will be losing major towns in the UK in my lifetime. We do expect a warmer world to have an impact on sea level in the 10s of metres range, but so far as I am aware only a few niche scenarios put this within the next hundred or two years.

 

[2hats]

I am not quite sure how your mate of the UK showing what 5 or 10m sea level rise and this research are linked.

Unless I am wrong it does not seem to suggest we will be losing major towns in the UK in my lifetime. We do expect a warmer world to have an impact on sea level in the 10s of metres range, but so far as I am aware only a few niche scenarios put this within the next hundred or two years.

The map is for 28m which appears to have arisen from a discussion with the lead author regarding the drainage output from the Aurora and Wilkes subglacial basins considered in this particular piece of research. No time scale indicated.

 

[2hats]

Visualisation of the Central England Temperature data set (1772-2018) average annual temperature - clearly illustrates recent warming trends…

From here.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

From the "we are so fucked" news section:

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions rose by a striking 3.4 percent in 2018, in the midst of an otherwise downward trend since 2005, a new analysis suggests. It’s likely the second-largest emissions jump since 1996, topped only by a 3.6 percent spike in 2010.

The findings were published Monday by the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm, largely drawing on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The uptick occurred during one of the biggest years for coal plant closures on record. This means declines in coal aren’t enough to keep pace with increasing demand for electricity—largely fed by natural gas over renewables last year, the report points out—and increasing emissions from other sources, including transportation and industry.

U.S. Emissions in 2018 Saw the Second-Largest Spike Since 1996

Wrong direction here, people.

 

[teqniq]

Also from the same:

Insect collapse: ‘We are destroying our life support systems’

“We knew that something was amiss in the first couple days,” said Brad Lister. “We were driving into the forest and at the same time both Andres and I said: ‘Where are all the birds?’ There was nothing.”

His return to the Luquillo rainforest in Puerto Rico after 35 years was to reveal an appalling discovery. The insect population that once provided plentiful food for birds throughout the mountainous national park had collapsed. On the ground, 98% had gone. Up in the leafy canopy, 80% had vanished. The most likely culprit by far is global warming....

 

[yield]

If You Can’t Deny It, Downplay It
January 13, 2019
How capitalists talk about climate change…

The world’s scientific community predicts up to two feet of sea level rise by just 2100, likely accompanied by a rising tide of climate refugees. So it’s worth dissecting how America’s dominant conservative media have swept the issue under the rug for two generations. To watch the evolution of climate change denial in action—and learn how to fight it—a great place to turn is the nation’s highest-circulation newspaper, the Wall Street Journal.

 

[teqniq]

The WSJ is a Murdoch rag so no surprises there.

 

[teqniq]

Also from the same:

Insect collapse: ‘We are destroying our life support systems’

An abstract of the research the Graun piece is based on. At the risk os sounding like a broken record, we are so fucked.

Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web

 

[2hats]

A new study just published (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1806562116) has found that the largest sustained ice loss from early 2003 to mid-2013 came from Greenland's southwest - there are fewer glaciers there than in the southeast and northwest regions where earlier research has tended to focus. The lack of glaciers would suggest the melt is coming largely from inland - increasingly, large amounts of ice mass are disappearing as meltwater, rivers that flow into the sea. This had not previously been considered a serious threat, but will likely become a major future contributor to sea level rise. Gravitational measurements from satellite and GPS data indicate that by 2012 ice mass loss was four times the rate it was in 2003. "We're going to see faster and faster sea level rise for the foreseeable future”, the lead author said.

New research (DOI: 10.1126/science.aav0566) indicates that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the progress of global warming. A new satellite image based methodology for computing the contribution of aerosols to the Earth’s radiation budget suggests their cooling effect is almost twice as great as previously thought. Lead author: "If the aerosols indeed cause a greater cooling effect than previously estimated, then the warming effect of the greenhouse gases has also been larger than we thought, enabling greenhouse gas emissions to overcome the cooling effect of aerosols and points to a greater amount of global warming than we previously thought.” This may leave us in the delightful catch-22: efforts to clean up fuel use and reduce pollution in order to reduce greenhouse gas production would also reduce pollution aerosols and in turn that would diminish the degree to which they currently offset global warming.

Finally, another study published this week (DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0848-x) models the variability of land carbon uptake with variation in soil moisture, so highlighting the important role it plays in the carbon cycle. This suggests that more droughts and heatwaves in the coming years will compromise the contribution the land makes to locking away anthropogenic carbon - the lead author: "If […] the rate of carbon uptake by the land starts to decrease by the middle of this century, as we found in the models, we could potentially see a large increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and a corresponding rise in the effects of global warming and climate change."

 

[2hats]

GOES-16 was mentioned earlier in this thread. GOES-17 (was GOES-S) is now on orbit and undergoing pre-operational testing (due to become GOES-West this month but delayed by the government shutdown). Despite thermal issues with the Advanced Baseline Imager (already being addressed in the next two satellites) it is producing some nice results such as this observation of cloud evolution around Big Island, Hawaii.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Methane hydrates: Why scientists worry less than you might think

The superdoomer positions of clowns like McPherson (most will not have heard of him but he has a sizable following online pushing near term human extinction from climate change) is basically over wrought hysteria.
We still need urgent action to cut our CO2 emissions to avoid the damaging effects of going above 2C warming, but we do not have to stay awake at night thinking we are 20 years from extinction.