Change UK: Chuka Umunna resigns from Labour party and launches Independent Group

[SpookyFrank]

Nothing to stop them standing as independents, and doing deals with the LibDems on a seat by seat basis. They only need to stand in a few marginal seats to throw a spanner in the works.

More like throwing a spanner onto a big pile of spanners at this point tbh.

And the bigger this group gets the more problematic the concept of an 'independent group' becomes.

 

[tommers]

Cons 327 + DUP 10 = 327. Still, just, a majority of the 650 seats. Also, that doesn't mean all the rest are active opposition votes (speaker, SF + there's also 1 vacancy).

Doesn't take many more though does it?

And then they're the new DUP. And Chuka makes Jeremy refer to him as the Duke of New York and A number 1.

 

[Wilf]

Cons 327 + DUP 10 = 327. Still, just, a majority of the 650 seats. Also, that doesn't mean all the rest are active opposition votes (speaker, SF + there's also 1 vacancy).

… I think the opposition would need 7 more Tory > TIG defections to give the opposition a genuine majority, at least until after the Paul Flynn by election.

 

[Wilf]

Doesn't take many more though does it?

And then they're the new DUP. And Chuka makes Jeremy refer to him as the Duke of New York and A number 1.

See ^

 

[SpookyFrank]

Cons 327 + DUP 10 = 327. Still, just, a majority of the 650 seats. Also, that doesn't mean all the rest are active opposition votes (speaker, SF + there's also 1 vacancy).

Still, every jumped up tory backbencher with an axe to grind now pretty much has May over a barrell, and we know she's quite happy to grovel and bribe to keep her own head above water.

 

[Wilf]

See ^

… or:
Current State of the Parties

 

[Ted Striker]

What motivation is there for Lib Dems to stay with the party that (will forever be known as the clowns that) fucked Students, and join the new sexy Indy Group?

 

[Sue]

What motivation is there for Lib Dems to stay with the party that (will forever be known as the clowns that) fucked Students, and join the new sexy Indy Group?

Steady on!

 

[Funky_monks]

What motivation is there for Lib Dems to stay with the party that (will forever be known as the clowns that) fucked Students, and join the new sexy Indy Group?

Do they want to though?

 

[Pickman's model]

Surely they can't stand candidates in a GE without turning themselves into a legitimate party, and so national polling is pretty meaningless?

it's notional national polling

 

[Shechemite]

What’s the back story re Anne Meadows?

 

[Lord Camomile]

… I think the opposition would need 7 more Tory > TIG defections to give the opposition a genuine majority, at least until after the Paul Flynn by election.

Is there a chance that a Tory who was supposed to defect won't, because doing so would break the numbers so the Tories could no longer govern?

Would the Tories be able to limp on as a minority government?

 

[Spod]

They are putting their beliefs before their careers IMO. Easy option is to drop out from the front line and sit on the back benches in the hope that one day the parties will return to more centrist positions. The Tories are so right and Labour so left at the moment I saw this coming. I think ideologically they are aligned with Lib Dem but they are still too damaged from the previous Tory coalition.

 

[Wilf]

What motivation is there for Lib Dems to stay with the party that (will forever be known as the clowns that) fucked Students, and join the new sexy Indy Group?

TIG Avengers, the ones both Marvel and DC rejected.

 

[SpookyFrank]

it's notional national polling

We don't live in a notional nation though.

I don't really have a point I'm just amused by the cadence of that.

 

[Wilf]

They are putting their beliefs before their careers IMO. .

Half of them were facing voncs and/or deselection.

 

[Wilf]

Is there a chance that a Tory who was supposed to defect won't, because doing so would break the numbers so the Tories could no longer govern?

Would the Tories be able to limp on as a minority government?

The irony is, amid the Brexit omnishambles, you forget there's everyday parliamentary business to be conducted/got through.

 

[Pickman's model]

We don't live in a notional nation though.

I don't really have a point I'm just amused by the cadence of that.

we do live in a notional nation. all nations are notional nations.

 

[Spod]

yes but why? As far as I can see its for speaking with their convictions rather than toeing the party line.

Half of them were facing voncs and/or deselection.

 

[Pickman's model]

The irony is, amid the Brexit omnishambles, you forget there's everyday parliamentary business to be conducted/got through.

the indies - an everyday story of parliamentary folk

 

[danny la rouge]

… I think the opposition would need 7 more Tory > TIG defections to give the opposition a genuine majority, at least until after the Paul Flynn by election.

I make it 5 more Tory to Tinge defections. My counting gives the government plus confidence and supply a majority of 8. To overturn the majority, one more than half of the majority need to join the opposition.

 

[SpookyFrank]

They are putting their beliefs before their careers IMO.

Umunna doesn't have any beliefs. He flaps about like a three-ply shithouse door in a hurricane.

 

[andysays]

I make it 5 more Tory to Tinge defections. My counting gives the government plus confidence and supply a majority of 8. To overturn the majority, one more than half of the majority need to join the opposition.

And crucially, they need not just to leave the Tories but actually be prepared to vote against them in a VONC.

One does not necessarily mean the other.

 

[Mr Moose]

I can't work out whether this strengthens or weakens May in any way, or makes no difference at all. They may be a bit more free with their voting now there is no whip but outside of the Brexit votes (which they were happy to vote against the government anyway) will they act any differently?

A few more and the Govt has no majority even with the DUP. So yes it’s weakening.

 

[Wilf]

I make it 5 more Tory to Tinge defections. My counting gives the government plus confidence and supply a majority of 8. To overturn the majority, one more than half of the majority need to join the opposition.

I'm counting it -

Govt -
Cons 317 + DUP 10 = 327

Oppo -

Labour 247
Scottish National Party 35
Independent 16
Liberal Democrat 11
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1​

= 314

Not counting - speaker, SF, 1 vacant (Flynn) = 9

= 650
From: Current State of the Parties

 

[chilango]

It'd be hilarious if some Lib Dems MPs defected to this group.

Not only because then we'd have a rump SDP, a rump Liberal Party and a rump Lib Dems all claiming the mantle of true heirs.

 

[Pickman's model]

It'd be hilarious if some Lib Dems MPs defected to this group.

Not only because then we'd have a rump SDP, a rump Liberal Party and a rump Lib Dems all claiming the mantle of true heirs.

good to call them rumps as they're all arses

 

[ViolentPanda]

the next Lab non ent is probably being cued up for the next flounce as we speak

Yep, it's kind of obvious that there'll be a drip-drip-drip of pre-organised flounces by non-entities.

 

[danny la rouge]

I'm counting it -

Govt -
Cons 317 + DUP 10 = 327

Oppo -

Labour 247
Scottish National Party 35
Independent 16
Liberal Democrat 11
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1​

= 314

Not counting - speaker, SF, 1 vacant (Flynn) = 9

= 650
From: Current State of the Parties

You’ve forgotten to take 3 from the Tory count. There’s 314 Tories.

Out of interest, are there even 5 half-likely Tory defectors? That would be fun.

 

[Plumdaff]

It'd be hilarious if some Lib Dems MPs defected to this group.

Not only because then we'd have a rump SDP, a rump Liberal Party and a rump Lib Dems all claiming the mantle of true heirs.

It'll be even more hilarious when this bunch of independents all end up voting with the government on the Brexit deal.