5.3. Meaning of the study and implications for policy and future research
The consistent results build confidence in the findings; where
statistical significance is not reached the effect is generally in the expected direction. Similarly, the larger effects (in terms of travel
behaviour change, and views about the cycling environment) in high-dose mini-Holland areas than in low-dose mini-Holland areas indicates that in places where borough stakeholders expected change to happen based on intervention timescales, there was indeed stronger evidence of change. This ‘dose response’ effect adds confidence to our
ability to attribute a causal role to the mini-Holland intervention. The exception is the change in
attitudes towards cycling spending in the mini-Holland boroughs, seen just as strongly in the low-dose areas as in the high-dose areas. In other words, the benefits of the intervention were specific to people living near to new
infrastructure, whereas the controversy around the schemes was observed across a wider area.
Prior to the roll-out of the scheme, the potential for
negative impacts on
users of other modes was widely discussed (e.g.
Mead, 2015,
Hill, 2015). We found no evidence of this. For instance, there was no evidence that time spent in cars was increasing (due to congestion), nor that walking environments were becoming less attractive due to the introduction of cycle lanes. On the contrary, it is encouraging that the increase in active travel was composed both of more walking, and more cycling - this perhaps reflects the refocusing of the mini-Holland programme to focus on walking as well as cycling along with an early focus on
traffic reduction in
residential areas in Waltham
Forest. It is encouraging that there was no evidence that the impact of the mini-Holland programme was unequally distributed across demographic or socio-economic groups (although statistical power to detect such differences was low).
Goodman et al. (2014) found being one kilometre closer (in terms of shortest route network distance) to new walking and cycling
infrastructure was associated with an increase in active travel of 15.3 min per week. Our findings are not directly comparable because Goodman et al. studied route-based interventions, while we have used an area-based
measure. Our increase of 41.0 min per week (for people living in the high-dose areas) is apparent at one-year follow-up, while
Goodman et al. (2014) only found evidence of change after two years.
The findings suggest that large-scale interventions with ambitious area-based components can lead to uptake in active travel, even over only a year, with the programmes only partly implemented. Outer London had not previously seen the substantial mode shift observed in Inner London, thus this suggests that even in less apparently promising locations, investment can drive uplift in walking and cycling. Area-based interventions incorporating cycle routes and
neighbourhood traffic reduction may be particularly good at encouraging active travel more broadly, compared to cycle routes alone. They may also be easier to evaluate because they are intended to have an area-level effect, contributing to a greater chance of identifying travel behaviour change if such takes place.
The mini-Holland interventions have, however, been controversial, generating 'backlash'. This has been most notoriously the case in Waltham Forest with vocal
protests, particularly early on (
Patient, 2017,
Hill, 2015,
Hill, 2017). However, Waltham Forest seems to be driving the growth in active travel and improved perceptions of the cycling environment found here. While
backlash did not represent a majority of participants in mini-Holland boroughs (neither did it translate into
voting behaviour in London's May 2018
council elections) it
highlights an ongoing need for
political leadership in England to successfully implement such interventions (
Aldred et al., 2017).
Future research should consider obtaining a larger and more representative
random sample of individuals or households, for instance by interviewing participants in person, and following-up in person, as is done for the National Travel Survey. This would be much more expensive and beyond this project’s relatively small
budget, but would help evidence the extent to which changes are likely to be common across wider populations. Future research could also usefully incorporate a qualitative
longitudinal component, to examine in more detail how and why views and behaviour may be changing.