Bristol City Council elections 2014

[JTG]

Starting this thread a little later than usual - eve of polling day!

Wards voting this year - these are the same ones fought on general election day in 2010:
Avonmouth (L)
Bedminster (L)
Bishopston (LD)
Bishopsworth (C)
Brislington East (L)
Brislington West (LD)
Filwood (L)
Hartcliffe (L)
Henbury (C)
Hengrove (LD)
Henleaze (LD)
Horfield (LD)
Kingsweston (LD)
Knowle (LD)
Lockleaze (LD)
Redland (LD)
Southmead (L)
Southville (G)
Stockwood (C)
Stoke Bishop (C)
Westbury-on-Trym (C)
Whitchurch Park (LD)
Windmill Hill (LD)

There is also a by-election in St George West following the resignation of Labour's Peter Hammond

Things to look out for:
1) The continuing annihilation of the Liberal Democrats in Bristol. It's kind of slow because of the drawn out election cycle for BCC but that means we get this fun nearly every year Since 2010 they've lost 14 seats on the council by my count and I expect them to lose up to ten more this time around
2) The battle between Labour and the Greens in Southville (which has been mighty close the last few times) and Bishopston (which the LDs have no chance of holding whatsoever). Hopefully the Greens will lose. Tess Green steps down in Southville and Charlie Bolton returns for another go at the job.
3) Labour defend the Avonmouth seat Doug Naysmith took from Spud Murphy on the drawing of lots in 2010. Should be a little easier this time.

Predictions: Avonmouth - Labour hold; Bedminster - Labour hold; Bishopston - Green gain; Bishopsworth - Tory hold; Brislington East - Labour hold; Brislington West - Labour gain; Filwood - Labour hold; Hartcliffe - Labour hold; Henbury - Tory hold; Hengrove - Labour gain; Henleaze - Lib Dem hold; Horfield - Labour gain; Kingsweston - Labour gain; Knowle - Labour gain; Lockleaze - Labour gain; Redland - Lib Dem hold; Southmead - Labour hold; Southville - Labour gain; Stockwood - Tory hold; Stoke Bishop - Tory hold; Westbury-on-Trym - Tory hold; Whitchurch Park - Labour gain; Windmill Hill - Labour gain

Tricky ones to predict are Henleaze (Tory/Lib Dem marginal, popular incumbent), Horfield (three way marginal, high student electorate), Kingsweston (Independent victory last time muddied the waters a bit but should return to Labour), Bishopston (Radice got a landslide win last time but how will they fare in the other seat? Lots of Green & Labour posters up in the ward), Windmill Hill (sticking my neck out, huge Lib Dem majority last time).

Webcast on the BCC youtube channel from 10pm Thursday

 

[DaveCinzano]

It's all getting dirty in Knowle - Gary Hopkins (LD) appears to have not made a whole heap of friends here!

 

[butchersapron]

It's all getting dirty in Knowle - Gary Hopkins (LD) appears to have not made a whole heap of friends here!

Surely an apt time to post this then:

 

[JTG]

It's all getting dirty in Knowle - Gary Hopkins (LD) appears to have not made a whole heap of friends here!

Hold the front page
Bishopston interests me due to the Rovers issue, which is pretty emotive and polarising. Have been told that Labour did a lot of door knocking around the issue and decided to be pro-Rovers/Sainsburys as a result. Someone even told me he saw Labour activists in Gas shirts on the Glos Rd.

 

[butchersapron]

THE BRISTOL BLOGGER’S ELECTION WATCH

Right. Here’s my election intro’. Apologies for any errors but I can’t be arsed with doing too much research so I’ve just cobbled this together from the list of candidates and relied on my general knowledge. Please post any corrections to the comments.

I’ve no idea about majorities, swings and all the statistical stuff because it’s too boring for words and I really can’t be bothered to look it all up. Anyway, hopefully Paul Smith will pop along to bore us with all that stuff as the night proceeds …

My generalised predictions are: a good night for Labour; a disaster for the Lib Dems; a couple of seats for the Greens and – percentage wise – a good night for UKIP but probably no councillors. My dodgy ward predictions are below.

 

[JTG]

He's talking cobblers on several fronts there imho

 

[DaveCinzano]

Results will be posted to the City Council website here:

http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ElectionId=68

 

[JTG]

I'm eagerly awaiting the live results (stream starts at midnight!)

I'm in work and we've run out of stuff to do. Your excuses may differ

 

[DaveCinzano]

First results expected around half one!

 

[JTG]

Live stream tells me votes are being verified

Exciting stuff this democracy lark

 

[DaveCinzano]

Apparently Brislington East is looking ripe for the Kippers, and Lib Dem leader Tim Kent is under threat in Whitchurch (though presumably not from UKIP's Christine Forrester, who lives in, err, Hampshire!)

 

[JTG]

Apparently Brislington East is looking ripe for the Kippers, and Lib Dem leader Tim Kent is under threat in Whitchurch (though presumably not from UKIP's Christine Forrester, who lives in, err, Hampshire!)

Recent results in Bris East have been very very narrow Labour wins over the Tories. Only dozens of votes in it - so a UKIP ambush over there wouldn't shock me

 

[DaveCinzano]

Exciting stuff this democracy lark

I would characterise this stuff as neither exciting nor democracy!

 

[JTG]

I would characterise this stuff as neither exciting nor democracy!

I'm suspending my cynicism because of the numbers

 

[DaveCinzano]

BBC Bristol's Chris Brierley now claiming Hengrove could be a Kipper gain...

 

[JTG]

Hmmm. My over reliance on past election results may do me few favours tonight

 

[DaveCinzano]

To be fair, Brierley does come across as someone who's been skipping his lithium.

 

[JTG]

Hang on - BBC Bristol?

I'll ignore him then

 

[DaveCinzano]

Steve Norman and entourage have been at the count over half an hour and haven”t decked anyone. This is a victory.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Still only verifying at 20 of 24 tables. Getting beyond a joke now.

 

[JTG]

Still only verifying at 20 of 24 tables. Getting beyond a joke now.

I believe they have to verify all the Euro votes before they seal the boxes and count the Council votes

Clearly it's a massive turn out

 

[JTG]

The live stream is up

Dealing with stuff at work but doesn't seem to be much else going on

 

[JTG]

RESULTS!

 

[JTG]

Filwood first it would seem. Surely nothing other than Labour here

 

[wiskey]

Starting this thread a little later than usual - eve of polling day!
2) The battle between Labour and the Greens in Southville (which has been mighty close the last few times) and Bishopston (which the LDs have no chance of holding whatsoever). Hopefully the Greens will lose. Tess Green steps down in Southville and Charlie Bolton returns for another go at the job.

Why?

 

[JTG]

Why?

Bishopston Greens campaigned against Memorial Stadium redevelopment. Upset an awful lot of people across Bristol as a result, bad move on their part

 

[JTG]

Expected turnout around 36%

 

[JTG]

Labour hold Filwood, Kingsweston expected next

 

[JTG]

Lib Dems hold Kingsweston

Wtf Kingsweston? Not the place I spent the first 16 years of my life in

 

[JTG]

That Kingsweston result:
Tim Leaman Liberal Democrat 745 26.37
Terence Richard Daniel Thomas UKIP 720 25.49
Mike Thorne Labour Party Candidate 654 23.15
Barbara Madeleine Lewis The Conservative Party Candidate 489 17.31

Pretty close