Bristol City Council elections 2013

[JTG]

So, while everybody's wibbling on about the County Council elections elsewhere, Bristol will be electing 23 of its 70 councillors on May 2nd. The following seats are up for grabs (names in brackets are the sitting councillors together with their party and majority over the second placed party last time out in 2009 - one exception being Southmead where the result is for the by-election held in November 2011). All in the north west, west and east of the city, the south sits it out this time.

Ashley (Jon Rogers LD Maj 695 over G)
Avonmouth (Siobhan Kennedy-Hall C Maj 226 over L)
Bishopston (Bev Knott LD Maj 1261 over G)
Cabot (Mark Wright LD Maj 692 over G)
Clifton (Trevor Blythe LD Maj 482 over C)
Clifton East (Simon Cook LD Maj 437 over C)
Cotham (Anthony Negus LD Maj 683 over G)
Easton (John Kiely LD Maj 174 over L)
Eastville (Steve Comer LD Maj 593 over L)
Frome Vale (James Stevenson C Maj 308 over L)
Henbury (Chris Windows C Maj 321 over L)
Henleaze (Glenise Morgan LD Maj 73 over C)
Hillfields (Patrick Hassell LD Maj 358 over L)
Horfield (Cheryl Ann LD Maj 452 over C)
Kingsweston (Simon Rayner LD Maj 729 over C)
Lawrence Hill (Brenda Hugill L Maj 9 over LD)
Lockleaze (Guy Poultney LD Maj 407 over L)
Redland (Fi Hance LD Maj 486 over G)
St George East (Alex Pearce C Maj 452 over L)
St George West (Ron Stone L Maj 91 over LD)
Southmead (Brenda Massey L Maj 334 over C)
Stoke Bishop (Peter Abraham C Maj 1301 over LD)
Westbury on Trym (Geoffrey Gollop C Maj 967 over LD)

The last set of results for these seats in May 2009 were an absolute shocker for Labour, losing seven seats to the Lib Dems and Tories. The loss of seats such as Kingsweston and Southmead (since regained in some style with the LD vote collapsing spectacularly) were a pretty stunning reflection on the state of Labour in Bristol and the steady rise of the Liberal Democrats over the past decade. Labour won less than 19% of the vote in 2009, only 4.5 points ahead of the Green Party. Lib Dems took 35% and Tories 26%.

Since then of course there's been a change of government and a corresponding retreat in the Liberal Democrat tide in the city, the May 2011 elections seeing Labour win four seats from the Liberals. The Lib Dems also comprehensively lost Ashley to the Green Party.

I can see a few different narratives here. Can Labour win back their former inner city and estate strongholds of Easton, Hillfields, Avonmouth, Eastville, Frome Vale, Henbury, Kingsweston, Lockleaze and St George East? Can the Lib Dems hold onto their footholds in former Labour areas, stave off the rising Green Party challenge in the Gloucester Road lentil belt of Ashley, Bishopston, Cotham and Redland and will a collapse in their vote allow the Tories through in Henleaze and the Clifton seats? Can the Tories hold onto their slivers on the edge of the city (St George East, Henbury, Avonmouth, Frome Vale) and get back into a position to challenge in west Bristol? And what effect, if any, will George Ferguson's Independents slate have?

My predictions, based on gut instinct:
Ashley - too close to call. Jon Rogers' personal vote to keep him in contention against the Green challenge
Avonmouth - Labour gain
Bishopston - Lib Dem hold, just. Daniella Radice to finish a strong second for the Greens
Cabot - Lib Dem hold
Clifton - Lib Dem hold
Clifton East - Lib Dem hold
Cotham - Lib Dem hold
Easton - Labour gain, Greens to finish second
Eastville - Labour gain
Frome Vale - Labour gain
Henbury - Labour gain
Henleaze - Conservative gain
Hillfields - Labour gain
Horfield - Lib Dem hold
Kingsweston - Labour gain. They were a hell of a long way back in third place in 2009 but having grown up there I just can't believe it won't be Labour again
Lawrence Hill - Labour hold
Lockleaze - Labour gain
Redland - Green gain. Not sure about this one but I can't help but feel the Greens will break through either here, Bishopston or Cotham.
St George East - Labour gain
St George West - Labour hold
Southmead - Labour hold
Stoke Bishop - Conservative hold ( )
Westbury on Trym - Conservative hold ( again, )

So, Labour +9, Green +2 (or +1), LD -8 (or -7), C -3
The council would look like this if I'm right: Labour 31, Lib Dem 25/24, Tory 11, Green 4/3

What say you lot? Any local insights? Anything I've missed? Gossip, wild predictions? Go on, you know it's dead fascinating...

 

[JTG]

Well this thread is going well

Have seen a few Independents for Bristol stake signs in the Horfield/Bishopston area and the Greens are making some confident noises about Ashley and possibly some of the neighbouring wards (ie Bishopston, Cotham, Redland, Cabot). Source: Gus Hoyt and Rob Telford getting a bit full of themselves on Twitter/facebook.

I also saw Green candidate for Bishopston Daniella Radice on her bike on Nevil Road earlier. She was wearing a rosette.

 

[xenon]

Uhm. I dunno. Thanks for the info. Not knowing the individuals and specific local dynamics in the wards, I'd say a modest Labour gain sounds about right.

 

[bi0boy]

What do you reckon to UKIP's chances?

Albert Murphy         Avonmouth
Alex Zychowski        Clifton
Pete Brown            Lawrence Hill
Steve Wood            Frome Vale
Christine Thomas      Redland
Phil Collins          St George East

 

[JTG]

What do you reckon to UKIP's chances?

Albert Murphy        Avonmouth
Alex Zychowski        Clifton
Pete Brown            Lawrence Hill
Steve Wood            Frome Vale
Christine Thomas      Redland
Phil Collins          St George East

For starters, Spud Murphy is the former Tory councillor for Avonmouth so may possibly do well enough there to ensure a Labour gain (assuming he's pulling more Tory votes away than Labour). I guess Frome Vale may be fertile UKIP territory, it's a suburban Tory/Labour marginal, though tbh I'm a little hazy about that side of town. Likewise St George East, though again I'd expect that to do enough to ensure Labour win.

Was doing some volunteering in the Bearpit today while there was a hustings for the Ashley candidates. Jon Rogers seemed confident enough as a speaker, as you'd expect from a long term sitting councillor and cabinet member. Rob Telford got a bit arsey with some hecklers whilst he was regurgitating some standard woolly crap about 'corporations'. Only really heard the Independent guy in full - he spent a long time going on about how independent he was and spent very little time actually talking about what he wanted to do. Summat about accessing money for the community. Thanks for that.

 

[Geri]

Labour were canvassing here this morning so they obviously think they have a good chance. Steve Comer is quite popular on a personal level here though so he might hang onto his seat.

 

[JTG]

Labour were canvassing here this morning so they obviously think they have a good chance. Steve Comer is quite popular on a personal level here though so he might hang onto his seat.

Yeah, I think he and Rogers may just save their arses on personal popularity... or not. I've vaguely known Steve Comer for a few years (he's a Rovers fan, proper home and away Gashead, though think he's had to scale back a little since becoming a councillor) and he's an alright bloke. Still a Lib Dem though so...

 

[JTG]

Have I mentioned that I think this Independent party-that-isn't-a-party is a bit sus? Set up by the same people behind Ferguson's 'Bristol 1st' campaign, smells of a Glos Road/Clifton bohemian artsy project with zero idea about working class areas of the city

 

[Geri]

He's come to the door a few times and I feel bad telling him that I won't vote for him. He does work pretty hard, it has to be said.

 

[JTG]

He's come to the door a few times and I feel bad telling him that I won't vote for him. He does work pretty hard, it has to be said.

Always struck me as someone who wanted to 'do something' and ended up in the Lib Dems for whatever reason. Then machine politics takes over

 

[big eejit]

I live in Ashley and I think Jon Rogers will hold it. He does a lot of work in the ward and has good political sense.

The Green candidate seems a bit of a smug tit. In fact lots of smugness emanating from that side imo.

Think residents parking could be a big issue this election. Greens seem to be too keen to back mayor's anti democratic scheme. JR in Ashley being quite clever and listening a lot.

Read about hustings in Barton Hill where residents all against parking zones. All candidates scramble to agree, greens not present. Mayor condemns cowardly candidates for listening to popular opinion. Democracy sucks eh George.

 

[JTG]

Don't know enough about the parking schemes issue really, it's an interesting one - think the Bristolian were saying nobody in Ashley seemed to be taking a position for fear of leaning too far either way and it being a vote loser?

Yeah, what little I've seen of Rob Telford (social media and yesterday's hustings) doesn't recommend him to me tbh. Gus got an easy ride against a new Lib Dem candidate replacing the awful Shirley and romped home. They are getting a bit cocky from what I can see and I don't think it'll be quite as easy as they think. Too close to call from what I can tell (from out here in the sticks but lived in the ward for a very long time!).

Greens seem quite cosy with His Royal Georgeness eh. Bit too grateful for the cabinet position and not wanting to rock the boat? Or just too damn woolly to really make any impact in the way they say they want to.

 

[JTG]

http://thebristolian.net/2013/04/28/local-elections-lib-dems-in-anti-jock-shock/

Comer's Eastville campaign in anti-Scottish outburst shocker!

 

[Geri]

By any means necessary eh? including xenophobia. My bet is that’ll get short shrift in Eastville. Tossers!!, (and thats no a caber reference)

As an Eastville voter, I can honestly say I do not give a toss.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah, I think he and Rogers may just save their arses on personal popularity... or not. I've vaguely known Steve Comer for a few years (he's a Rovers fan, proper home and away Gashead, though think he's had to scale back a little since becoming a councillor) and he's an alright bloke. Still a Lib Dem though so...

He's a weirdo knobber who puts on a trade union front of fighting cuts within the PCS (ex NEC member) and posing as a socialist whilst being a cuts endorsing lib-dem councillor, being personally responsible for many job losses when head of the Human Resources Committee

 

[JTG]

Fair enough

 

[butchersapron]

And i've told him three times the last week not to put his filth through our door but he still does.

 

[butchersapron]

He'd be on better ground attacking her for this bit of vomit inducing guff:

Eight years ago I fell in love.

I came down to Bristol on a family holiday and fell for its charms. It was my first choice for University and I took my place to study Chemistry.

Upon graduating, I worked for the University as entrepreneur-in-residence, spending part of my time as an enterprise educator and part of my time exploring running my own business. I developed a stronger passion for the education part of my job, so in November 2011, joined the staff at the University of the West of England as the Student Enterprise Adviser.

and for the fact that she was too scared to get the normal bus with normal people so instead hid on the student bus:

I would get the U3 bus

 

[JTG]

Is she really trying to make a case for representing Eastville on the back of going through it on the bus to uni?!

Jesus

 

[JTG]

And i've told him three times the last week not to put his filth through our door but he still does.

Set the cat on him

 

[JTG]

Anyway, here in Henbury we've only heard from the Labour candidate. Fuck knows where the Tories are, they're supposed to be defending the seat. Was considering a vote for Labour to bin the Tory but then I remind myself of the sort of shitstain cuntitude that Labour get up to, nationally and locally

 

[DaveCinzano]

Don't know enough about the parking schemes issue really, it's an interesting one - think the Bristolian were saying nobody in Ashley seemed to be taking a position for fear of leaning too far either way and it being a vote loser?

Here you go:

http://thebristolian.net/2013/04/21/prattle-royale-in-ashley/

Rogers triangulate George on RPZs:

http://www.bristol247.com/2013/04/29/jon-rogers-backs-mayor-over-residents-parking-zones-62591/

 

[butchersapron]

Is she really trying to make a case for representing Eastville on the back of going through it on the bus to uni?!

Jesus

She was here on sunday, lots and lots of adult minders around.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Easton (John Kiely LD Maj 174 over L)...

My predictions, based on gut instinct:
... Easton - Labour gain, Greens to finish second

I don't know - here in Redfield not had anything through from Shah. Could he be sitting back hoping for a communitarian vote in his favour? If he is, I suspect he will find it elusive.

Kiely on the other hand seems to have been rather active in recent weeks and months, bringing the Greenbank, the Chocolate Factory and the dearth of primary school places to the fore - all significant local issues that are spread across the ward (community cohesion, housing and education) rather than only rooted in one area. He also seems to be active when approached by constituents.

Also had literature through the door from the Greens (McMullen) - don't know what effect they will have locally.

And what effect, if any, will George Ferguson's Independents slate have?

Little to none, I would imagine About as bourgeois as you could get, I'm not sure a get-you-back-into-work poverty tourist from Clifton (Townsend) will rake in many votes in Lawrence Hill. The Arnolfini's millionaire finance director (McLennan) might do alright on her home turf of Cliftonwood, if her butler's been out burning the shoe leather.

Maybe the Ashley (Belizaire) and Horfield (Mochizuki) will scoop up some credulous yogurt weaver/liberal student votes, will be interesting to see.

Seeing as the whole IfB thing seems predicated on "we must have more sensible middle class people in politics!", not sure that's going to play particularly well in the inner city wards.

 

[JTG]

Cheers for that. Based my Easton prediction on the last time out (two years ago) when I think Labour romped home with the Lib Dems only finishing around 25 votes ahead of the Greens. Having said that, Kieley is the Lib Dems' longest sitting councillor so must have some kind of personal following... Met Anna McMullen the other week, without realising she was standing for the council. I slagged off the Ferguson mob and she was broadly sympathetic without saying much. She agreed with me that meals on wheels services are more important than wanky arts projects anyway.

Spot on re: IfB. They may get votes down the lentil belt but not much elsewhere. The Ferguson strategy

 

[DaveCinzano]

The Indy Redpants lot keep emphasising 'IfB is not a party!', and yet they campaign together, they share platforms and hustings, and they never, ever critique Ferguson or each other. Funny, that.

 

[butchersapron]

I wonder what the election rules say on that.

 

[JTG]

The Indy Redpants lot keep emphasising 'IfB is not a party!', and yet they campaign together, they share platforms and hustings, and they never, ever critique Ferguson or each other. Funny, that.

But they're dead independent like and that's all we need to know from what I can tell

 

[butchersapron]

Secret parties not allowed, a big no no - disqualification and fines would follow.

 

[JTG]

Secret parties not allowed, a big no no - disqualification and fines would follow.

Any idea if there's a definition of what a party is? Assuming that from what you say, there's something explicit regarding groups who aren't registered with the Electoral Commission or whatever