Sirena
Don't monkey with the buzzsaw
In our immensely hubristic geocentric arrogance, we can say it is pretty much a damn certainty!
Aliens probably long dead, say scientists
- Thread starter krtek a houby
- Start date
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
No, and we don't know that powder blue unicorns with pink and golden horns ridden by tiny little people with butterfly wings called fairae folk aren't prancing around right now as we speak on the surface of the as-yet unconfirmed Ninth Planet either (which I'm calling Hades by the way).
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
According to one of the books of Charles Stross, aliens stay home becoz broadband. Connection-speeds away from the homeworld are terrible.
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EastEnder
Brixton Barnacle
By that logic, livestock fancying types living in pooh strewn hinterlands would do the sensible thing & move to civilised areas with fast broadband, like London or one of the other inferior cities. I suspect that many advanced aliens have awesome internet speeds, but there'll still be countless more who cling to the precipitous cliffs of god forsaken far-flung moons, whilst banging on endlessly about how much nicer the countryside is. Silly little green men.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Thing is, if you evolved on one planet within a given star system, you're unlikely to find the distant moons even within your own star system to be attractive in the bucolic manner you describe. Taking our own Solar system as a model, you're not going to move to Titan in the first place for the country air - there's no air there that you can safely breathe without importing or synthesising it. No, you're going to move there in the first place for more economic reasons; because there are resources being extracted there, or because you can get a job providing services to the people extracting resources there. One of the downsides to moving to a plausible colony on somewhere like Titan is going to be communication lag brought about by the lightspeed limit - no real-time conversations with friends and family back on Earth. So whatever colony that's built there is going to have to have something rather special in order to convince you to stay in spite of that defect. Because any kind of environment comfortable for you will have to be built from scratch, any reason impelling you to stay beyond the more economic first reasons will be similar to the ones that encourage people to stay in cities that they move to for work.
You can live fairly comfortably on something like an oil rig. But few people have actually decided to live somewhere like that full-time, and oil rigs have the advantage that communication lags are insignificant to non-existent.
Living on other planets is less like living in a village in the Appalchians and more like living in a city-state in the middle of Antarctica or the toastier parts of the Atacama. Minus the breathable atmosphere and plus a good amount of radiation.
Sure, there might be other habitable planets out there on which you can take a stroll without having to go through the inconvenience of donning a suit and waiting to step through an airlock, but the distance to such places is going to be so much greater than other planetary bodies within one's native system - instead of communication lags lasting for hours, it's going to be years or decades. Plus they're many orders of magnitude harder to get to, assuming you can find any within a reachable distance in the first place.
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bi0boy
Power User
I'm sure in a couple of hundred years we'd be able to terraform Mars and Venus in short order and make them very attractive places to be.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Maybe so, and it would be an impressive achievement if we did. Truly one for the history books.
But on the interstellar/galactic scale (which is the scale that the Fermi Paradox operates on), that would be pretty much exactly the same as "staying at home". The only way we'd find an alien civilisation that had the same idea (but went no further out of their home star system) is if we went out there and stumbled across them ourselves, or (if we stayed at home and they were close enough) did some very careful observations of nearby stars and found an anomalous number of planets with nitrogen-oxygen atmospheres in their system.
Doing observations from home might possibly have yielded results already (Maybe. Perhaps.), and we've just yet to confirm it. There have been some highly anomalous observations of the star KIC 8462852, and comets have been ruled out as their cause. But personally I'm going to wait until all reasonable naturalistic hypotheses have been exhausted before betting money on it, as it were.
Nevertheless, the more we learn about what's out there, the better placed we'll be to recognise alien life if and when we do find it.
xes
F.O.A.D
There were star systems hundreds of billions of years ago, if life evolved on these then yes, chances are that it's long gone. There are star systems still in their infancy right now, and quite probably still will be nursery star clusters in many billions of years to come. Some of them might in the future harbour life, some of them which are a billion or so years younger than ours may already have life on their planets. To say that all life in the universe is dead, is utterly proposterous, given the time frames invovled. The fermi paradox is not the be all and end all of equations. It's 1 random set of numbers picked from a lottery of billions of combinations. Sure, it's a feasable system of calculation, but it's just a theory. We know next to nothing about space and its potential inhabitants. To claim it's all gone is blind sighted at best.
Signal 11
also programmed for conversational english
Those are reasonable arguments why it's not for everyone. But for the Fermi Paradox you need to show why it's not for anyone, including the robots.
EastEnder
Brixton Barnacle
When it comes to widespread colonisation of space, by aliens or future humans, I think we have to abandon our traditional notions of exploration/settlement. Unless someone finds a convenient loophole in the laws of physics, the Star Trek style notion of far-flung colonies remaining in contact with, possibly even trading with, other colonies or their home planet is a bit untenable. I see it more as a dispersal of life, with no expectations of ever remaining in communication range (within a sensible time-frame) or possibly even ever having any direct contact again.
Why would anyone embark on such a one-way voyage? Most people on earth, with today's level of technology, society & aspirations simply would not. But what about humanity in 2100, or 3000 or the year 10000? Assuming we're still here in some form, I would imagine that patrons of earth circa 10000 will look back on our little lives with something between amusement & bewilderment. Maybe they'll have synthetically engineered bodies that make them practically immortal. Imagine you could put your brain into stasis mode, travel out to other planets in ships the size of small moons - a 10,000 year journey would pass in the blink of a synthetic eye. You'd arrive with more than enough technology & resources to do whatever the hell you wanted with any prospective star system. And if I was practically immortal, I think the challenge of spending a few centuries establishing other home worlds would be quite appealing.
But you'd never bother maintaining links to "home" - a planet that might be 10's of light years distant. You'd have everything you need in your new home. Other travellers might rock up over the millennia, maybe some from your old stomping ground - but even if they were, they would've left a planet that you'd probably find unrecognisable, given the time taken to cross interstellar space.
So in my humble opinion, we need to look at space not like a wild west frontier, but as somewhere where advanced species might evolve into, moving outward over geologic time, with no sentimental ties, let alone political or economic ones, to where they, or their progenitors, had once lived.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Taking your example of self-replicating robotic probes:
1) For a start, they're probes. If they're just sending information back to the homeworld, rather than acting as seed ships, then they only need to visit a place once and they're done. Even if it crashed on Earth rather than moving on to another star system, if it crashed almost any time in the billions of years since the Earth was formed, then geology and Deep Time would see to it that there wouldn't be much left for us to find even if we knew what we were looking for and where to look for it.
2) Maybe they were launched, but didn't get to us/haven't reached us yet for any number of reasons. Maybe the ancestors of the self-replicating probes that would have otherwise reached by now us got wiped out by a supernova or strayed too close to some other damaging astrophysical phenomenon. Space can be a tough place even if you're a machine. Maybe they were launched, but evolutionary pressures changed their "mission parameters" over however many millions of years, causing them to lose their original interest in places like the Earth and instead go gallivanting in the more metal-rich galactic core, or in the depths of interstellar space. Or, if they weren't programmed for adaptability, and that lack causes them to die out very quickly in the face of an indifferent universe, with the probes not getting more than a couple of thousand light years from homeworld. Even with adaptability, we see on Earth that species can die out in spite of that.
3) It's also possible that such a probe visited this star system while we were around, and we missed it even then; we weren't great record-keepers during the Neolithic, so an oddly moving star that was the probe in orbit of Earth wasn't noted down. Assuming that such a probe would need to get that close.
4) Mission priorities. So we're assuming an exploration probe (a big assumption in itself, I think!), but what kind of exploration is it carrying out? There are a lot of potential variables there.
Given all the above possibilities, I don't think that the lack of self-replicating probes we see means much.
Signal 11
also programmed for conversational english
And if they're not (e.g. they're looking for life), and/or multiple civilisations are sending them, then no.
This is dealt with in the article I keep touting.
That's an interesting one, but a more likely failure mode would be some newbie space-faring civilisation accidently sends out a galactic Morris Worm. And guess who that will probably be.
Possibly, given the same assumptions that make #1 work.
Exactly.
All good points again and could work assuming very low numbers of civilisations and no interest in anything more than simple visit-once probes. But the numbers have to be low enough that they're pretty close to "maybe we're the only ones yet".
xes
F.O.A.D
You can apply that to many things. Not just self replicating robots.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Basically, I agree as far as the basic facts of interstellar travel are concerned.
But I disagree that communication across interstellar distance won't happen or won't matter, at least if one postulates as you do the possibility of such things as extended lifespans, synthetic bodies, cryonic suspension - a society with those kind of tools at it's disposal would be well-equipped to deal with communication lag. It won't matter if a reply takes 12 years if you've got the time to wait. You might not be able to render timely assistance to a distant colony in distress, but you would certainly be able to exchange information with others in the stellar neighbourhood. Political structures at interstellar scales are more likely to be loose affiliations rather than strongly centralised nation-states, in my opinion.
There might even be a place for unmodified humans in such a civilisation, if powerful enough sublight engines can be created. You would only ever be able to get ever closer to the speed of light without actually reaching it, but in so doing the time dilation effect becomes exponentially greater. This greatly reduces the travel time for those onboard. You'd probably want your family and/or some good friends to come with you on your way, given that decades to centuries will pass if or when you return. Although depending on your definition of "unmodified human" it's possible life extension might see to that problem. If there are still banks around by that time - hopefully not, but this is a good wheeze nonetheless - stick some money in one of them in an account that provides a decent rate of interest, and you should be nice and rich when you return, unless the bank collapses in the meantime. Choose your bank wisely.
Shipping stuff instead of people across interstellar distances is just a question of whether it makes any economic sense to do so. I would expect pretty much all of the kinds of stuff we make today wouldn't be traded on an interstellar basis, because it can be made within the star system in question. But more exotic stuff that can't be mined or manufactured or synthesised within a typical star system would definitely be worth the effort. The kind of things that a star-faring civilisation really can't do without, like perhaps a ready source of antimatter or some such.
So yeah, it wouldn't be the Wild West - nothing like it really. But exchange of information over interstellar distances would create political and cultural networks even if they would be agonisingly slow and ephemeral in the eyes of a 21st century human. People would be able to travel interstellar, they just wouldn't do it casually if they were vaguely human. AIs would have the best of it, being able to transmit themselves at light speed to a receiver light years distant in a subjective instant, and their inherent agelessness would allow them to maintain conversations (at least with each other) over centuries and millennia. Robots could boosted across in standby mode or whatever. There would be at least some interstellar trade, which may or may not be economically important depending on whether it's original Van Goghs or something more like antimatter that makes up the bulk of such trade. There would be plenty of room for drama and politics and other stories in such a world, but it would be very strange to us.
bi0boy
Power User
I'm pretty sure most societies initiating self-replicating probe projects would ensure the probes are as small, cold, dark and undetectable as possible. Even the most expansionist and war-hungry race of aliens would like to get a good view of new worlds before they think about announcing themselves.
I reckon the chances of us detecting a probe if it arrives tomorrow to spy on us and send information back home are close to zero.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Well, a military scout/spy has more reasons for staying hidden than a peaceful explorer. A hostile surveillance drone wouldn't need to get very close at all - just close enough to confirm the presence of primitive monkeyforms and their nuclear firecrackers and report that fact back to Zorblurch High Command.
Those with peaceful intentions are more likely to come out of the dark and shake hands, if they aren't scared of us.
Then you have the Berserkers, who'll come in guns blazing. Or the Griefers, which will snipe you from a distance with a titanic star-powered laser.
Mumbles274
running from law and the press and the parents
Ive been reading 'why does e=mc2'
I like this bit...
It might seem that humanity’s possible destinations within the Milky Way will be forever restricted to a tiny portion of the stars very close to our home (on astronomical scales) because we could hardly be expected to undertake a journey to distant corners of the galaxy that would take light itself 100,000 years to reach. But here is where Einstein comes to the rescue. If we could build a spaceship that could whisk us into space at speeds very close to light speed, then the distances to the stars would shrink, and the amount of shrinking would increase the closer to light speed we could travel. If we managed to travel at 99.99999999 percent of light speed, then we could travel out of the Milky Way and all the way to the neighboring Andromeda galaxy, almost 3 million light-years away, in a mere fifty years.
It is a good book, remember, there is no such thing as space or time... Only spacetime
I like this bit...
It might seem that humanity’s possible destinations within the Milky Way will be forever restricted to a tiny portion of the stars very close to our home (on astronomical scales) because we could hardly be expected to undertake a journey to distant corners of the galaxy that would take light itself 100,000 years to reach. But here is where Einstein comes to the rescue. If we could build a spaceship that could whisk us into space at speeds very close to light speed, then the distances to the stars would shrink, and the amount of shrinking would increase the closer to light speed we could travel. If we managed to travel at 99.99999999 percent of light speed, then we could travel out of the Milky Way and all the way to the neighboring Andromeda galaxy, almost 3 million light-years away, in a mere fifty years.
It is a good book, remember, there is no such thing as space or time... Only spacetime
Signal 11
also programmed for conversational english
If you need to make assumptions like that, then you can get away with it for very small numbers. In which case your real argument isn't much different to mine.
EastEnder
Brixton Barnacle
I agree that communication will take place, although obviously in nothing like the form we're used to today. It'd be more like tuning into radio from the 60's - lots of information, plenty of opportunity to pick up ideas & technologies, but essentially a historical record. Certainly, novel information could be exchanged, but assuming the communicating parties began with similar information, it's entirely possible they'd both have independently arrived at whatever it is, before the information is disseminated to the other. Ironically, given the huge technological sophistication inherent to star travelling races, it might turn out that the most highly prized long distance communications would be of a cultural nature. Music, literature, films, etc (or the multi-tentacled alien equivalent), might be the most popular exchanges between disparate star systems. If it takes 50 years to send a signal, by the time you get my blueprints for the latest planet zapping laser, you might well have already developed a better one. Cultural information suffers far less from obsolescence due to age.
I'm not so sure an advanced alien civilisation would bother shipping anything physical beyond the confines of a single star system. Assuming you can transmit information reliably over vast distances, even with the attendant time lag, I would imagine there's not much that wouldn't be vastly easier & cheaper to fabricate at home. Especially when one considers an advanced technological society that has mastered fusion to the point whereby they can synthesise any element on the periodic table, and produce any molecule or compound. I suspect the economies involved would make it unlikely that any tangible products will ever be physically sent between stars. You could either send the information required to synthesise or build something, which might take decades, or create it physically and send it on ships that might take thousands of years. I know that interstellar transport missions are a staple of SciFi ("but Captain, if we don't get the shipment of dilithium ore to Rigel 5 by Thursday there'll be war!"...or something), I really think this is one of those areas where we're projecting the pedestrian concerns of contemporary life, rather than anything that would make any sense in the real universe!
... but meanwhile, 3 million years will have passed for the people on Earth and in Andromeda. And another 3 million if you travel back again. So you can do it (just) in your lifetime but who knows what you will find when you arrive, and there is no going home.
Mumbles274
running from law and the press and the parents
Exactly, interstellar space travel would effectively be one way
No just that, but you would be jetting off to something 3 million years in the future. You could well arrive there only to find that all intelligent life is now extinct.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
On a side note, how did Star Trek get around relativity?
Magic.
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