Will this new Mazda engine be a game-changer for the petrol engine ?

[DownwardDog]

I've wondered why manufacturers have gone so strongly for this idea of home charging. It always seemed more sensible to me to develop a standard battery that could be swapped in and out at a garage (would need some little lifting boom so customers don't actually have to lift them but that's easy). Then garages become responsible for charging and battery quality control, and the swapping fee covers the cost of replacement of batteries as necessary. This would get rid of the whole limitation of not being able to drive more than x number of miles before charging. It also means that garages don't have to go bust as fossil fuels fade, but that's just a side bonus.

It's because a large part of the value in an EV is battery and charging system. It's one of the main areas in which manufacturers try to build a competitive advantage so nobody in the business wants interchangeable batteries. The batteries are also huge and an integral part of the chassis so making them readily removable would involve many unpalatable and expensive compromises in the design.

 

[urbanspaceman]

they cost more to make than they sell for.

Wrong

Tesla's gross margin is about 20-25%
Tesla Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) (TSLA)

 

[bemused]

I've wondered why manufacturers have gone so strongly for this idea of home charging. It always seemed more sensible to me to develop a standard battery that could be swapped in and out at a garage (would need some little lifting boom so customers don't actually have to lift them but that's easy). Then garages become responsible for charging and battery quality control, and the swapping fee covers the cost of replacement of batteries as necessary. This would get rid of the whole limitation of not being able to drive more than x number of miles before charging. It also means that garages don't have to go bust as fossil fuels fade, but that's just a side bonus.

They go with home charging because it is all that's on the truck. Home charging doesn't scale for lots of reasons if nothing else because houses can't support the types of chargers that make it practical and many people park on the street.

The problem goes away when you can charge batteries with >150kW chargers, meaning you could recharge an electrical car in a few minutes, not 20 hours. However, homes won't be able to support those, so someone will need to pay for fast charging stations at scale. Even if a company launched a car what could be charged in 4mins on a 150 kW charger you'd probably only be able to charge it as the local factory.

 

[AverageJoe]

I'd buy a tesla in a heartbeat but there are no charging stations where I live. So I bought an audi.

Make of that what you will

 

[urbanspaceman]

I'm not sure I'd write the combustion engine off yet. For a number of reasons:

1. I don't belive the 2040 target will be hit.
Any substantiation for your belief ?

2. Outside industrialised countries fuel is much easier to distribute than electricity. www.huffingtonpost.com/justin-guay/can-solar-micro-grids-tra_b_13087530.html
In poor countries distributing anything can be difficult. But the decentralisation of electricity generation suggests that electricity will become increasingly ubiquitous

3. HCCI doesn't need petrol to run - you could run in on synthetic fuel which has been around since the 1920s. At some point, it'll be commercially viable to make, or some lobby group will get a comedy subsidy from government
Nobody is suggesting that the switch to EVs will occur due to oil exhaustion. The synthetics you mention - what are they made from ? Surely not biomass (thus using up huge tracts of armland) or coal (a dirtier process it is hard to imagine)

4. Electric powered commercial ships, trucks and planes seem a while off.
So Wrong

Ships
www.ship-technology.com/projects/norled-zerocat-electric-powered-ferry/
corvusenergy.com/all-electric-car-ferry/
uk.businessinsider.com/first-all-electric-autonomous-cargo-ship-yara-birkeland-2017-5

Trucks
about.van.fedex.com/newsroom/europe-english/fedex-introduces-zero-emission-electric-nissan-e-nv200-vehicles-belgium/
www.smmt.co.uk/2017/07/ups-ups-number-electric-trucks/
cleantechnica.com/2017/04/13/dhl-deutsche-post-double-electric-delivery-van-production/
uk.businessinsider.com/mercedes-electric-truck-photos-2017-6?r=US&IR=T
cleantechnica.com/2017/07/30/bollinger-b1-electric-truck-debuts-manhattan/
electrek.co/2017/04/18/tesla-semi-analyst-electric-truck-disruptive/

Aircraft
www.dezeen.com/2017/02/14/dubai-begin-flying-world-first-passenger-drone-transport-technology-news/
company.airbus.com/responsibility/airbus-e-fan-the-future-of-electric-aircraft.html
www.nasa.gov/langley/ten-engine-electric-plane-completes-successful-flight-test/
www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-startup-is-building-an-electric-airplane

Personal I loathe driving, the idea of a robot car I plug in and use my phone to drive is something I'd jump on in a second. But, I think people will be sticking petrol in cars for quite some time to come.

 

[bemused]

Any substantiation for your belief ?

I've not seen any substantive plan from HM government how they intend to enable fast the fast charging infrastructure which would allow the wholesale adoption of EVs - as pointed it out this is probably why hybrids are included.
The EU body put in charge of create a standard for EV in the EU, which would be needed for the infrastrucutre to be invested in, started work defining it in 2015.

HS2 is going to take 16 years to complete - given some idea of the scope and scale of how long it'll take; once they've set on a standard.

At best I suspect you'll see hybrid cars.

Like I said, I've love to see robot electric card tomorrow my faith is largest scale infrastructure projects being delivered on time long after the people who promised them are out of office is very low.

 

[mauvais]

Wrong

Tesla's gross margin is about 20-25%
Tesla Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) (TSLA)

They don't turn a profit. Per car delivered, they lose about $13k. Now you can argue that's internal investment or whatever, I don't know, but any story anyone tells with these numbers is creative accounting of some form or other.

 

[mauvais]

I've not seen any substantive plan from HM government how they intend to enable fast the fast charging infrastructure which would allow the wholesale adoption of EVs - as pointed it out this is probably why hybrids are included.
The EU body put in charge of create a standard for EV in the EU, which would be needed for the infrastrucutre to be invested in, started work defining it in 2015.

I think on this count (more broadly than the quote above) you are unduly pessimistic. Charging infrastructure - except the big issues of grid demand etc - isn't technically difficult. Every lamp post and junction box is potentially a charging station. Nor do you really need an EU-mandated standard. Hell, them thrash it out a la Blu-ray if necessary, although I'm not sure anyone can afford the time.

The problem is, in our age of austerity, short termism and 'let the market sort it', the chicken and egg nature of it. No electric cars until the infrastructure appears, but no mass infrastructure until it turns a profit because people are using it. It needs someone to break that cycle. Usually that's the state in some form, but as above, I doubt it has either the temperament or the will.

 

[urbanspaceman]

I've not seen any substantive plan from HM government how they intend to enable fast the fast charging infrastructure which would allow the wholesale adoption of EVs - as pointed it out this is probably why hybrids are included.
The EU body put in charge of create a standard for EV in the EU, which would be needed for the infrastrucutre to be invested in, started work defining it in 2015.

HS2 is going to take 16 years to complete - given some idea of the scope and scale of how long it'll take; once they've set on a standard.

At best I suspect you'll see hybrid cars.

Like I said, I've love to see robot electric card tomorrow my faith is largest scale infrastructure projects being delivered on time long after the people who promised them are out of office is very low.

Archive Press Releases | RAC | RAC

According to the above, there are 10.6M domestic garages in the UK. For comparison, there are about 30M cars on the road. Although some of these garages are used for storage, but all will have a driveway, where a charging post could be sited. It's possible to charge at 7kW (equivalent to about 30 miles per hour) without major changes to the domestic electricity supply. So, people could switch to Economy 7, and get 200 miles of range in the seven hour charging period for about £3. That's 1.5p "fuel" cost per mile (compare with 20p per mile for normal cars), the most convenient and cheapest approach, with no need to visit a charging station. That leaves another 20M cars if you assume one car per garage. But some cars (say 5M?) will belong to two or more car families and can also be charged at home.

That leaves 15M to be charged elsewhere. There will be on-street and motorway service charging, and perhaps people will fast-charge their cars in the carpark during their 45 minute trip around the supermarket, similar to filling up with petrol at the moment. All sorts of car-parking facilities may find a new source of income by installing charging posts. I don't think there is any need for a top-down plan for charging stations, any more than there is for petrol stations now - market forces should be enough. One caveat though is the supply of power. Given the diurnal demand cycle, and green power variability, one can imagine demand-based pricing with teeth being introduced to smooth out demand.

What are the extra power requirements ? Assume 10M EVs, doing 4 miles per kW, and 25 miles per day. That's an averaged continuous power demand of about 3GW. Which is about 10% of current average demand, and 5% of total generating capacity. It's a lot, but not enough to break the grid. The problem is demand smoothing.

 

[bemused]

I think on this count (more broadly than the quote above) you are unduly pessimistic. Charging infrastructure - except the big issues of grid demand etc - isn't technically difficult. Every lamp post and junction box is potentially a charging station. Nor do you really need an EU-mandated standard. Hell, them thrash it out a la Blu-ray if necessary, although I'm not sure anyone can afford the time.

Not sure you'll turn every lamppost into a charging point. The end game is <300 kW chargers which would require uplifting the local infrastructure - the benefit is: a) you can charge your car in minutes and b) you could reuse petrol station sites.

You need standard otherwise you'll never get the public investment.

 

[urbanspaceman]

They don't turn a profit. Per car delivered, they lose about $13k. Now you can argue that's internal investment or whatever, I don't know, but any story anyone tells with these numbers is creative accounting of some form or other.

You've changed your claim. Tesla's costs of production are lower than its sales revenues. But the Gross Profit is absorbed in the breakneck pace of development of new cars, a truck, the Gigafactory, new assembly plants, R&D, powerpack development and manufacture and solar tile development and manufacture. So, of course Tesla's accounts look different from legacy car firms. On the one hand you have mature companies that don't generate enough ideas to absorb their free cashflow, and so by default it falls through to the profit line. On the other hand Tesla is expanding in many (perhaps too many) directions at once, with the huge appetite for capital expenditure that entails. Two things people might consider: Tesla is still in its start-up stage compared to its competitors, and Tesla may not even be a car company, but a hybrid of car/green energy/software.

There is an analogue: Amazon vs. Walmart. Walmart is mature and pays out dividends. Amazon, intentionally, does not make a profit, pouring its free cashflow into all sorts of new products and services. As a result, Walmart's market cap has been flat for years, overtaken long ago by Amazon, whose market cap continues to climb.

Finally, by "creative accounting" do you mean fraud ? If not, what in Tesla's accounts is fake, misleading or dubious ? The numbers all seem to be there - and the SEC is satisfied. What have you spotted ?

 

[mauvais]

What claim have I changed?

And not fraud, no. Just the, shall we say, diversity of interpretation of the economic figures in the media, blogs, etc.

I may be unduly grumpy and cynical but don't you think this is all a bit 'drinking the Kool Aid'? Are you invested in some way?

 

[mauvais]

Not sure you'll turn every lamppost into a charging point. The end game is <300 kW chargers which would require uplifting the local infrastructure - the benefit is: a) you can charge your car in minutes and b) you could reuse petrol station sites.

You need standard otherwise you'll never get the public investment.

That's partly it, I doubt that UK public investment is coming anyway, at least not in any planned or sensible way. If it does there's no guarantee it will require open standards - this benevolently assumes the government isn't bent and therefore unwilling to favour one of its mates.

 

[bemused]

Archive Press Releases | RAC | RAC

According to the above, there are 10.6M domestic garages in the UK. For comparison, there are about 30M cars on the road. Although some of these garages are used for storage, but all will have a driveway, where a charging post could be sited. It's possible to charge at 7kW (equivalent to about 30 miles per hour) without major changes to the domestic electricity supply. So, people could switch to Economy 7, and get 200 miles of range in the seven hour charging period for about £3. That's 1.5p "fuel" cost per mile (compare with 20p per mile for normal cars), the most convenient and cheapest approach, with no need to visit a charging station. That leaves another 20M cars if you assume one car per garage. But some cars (say 5M?) will belong to two or more car families and can also be charged at home.

That leaves 15M to be charged elsewhere. There will be on-street and motorway service charging, and perhaps people will fast-charge their cars in the carpark during their 45 minute trip around the supermarket, similar to filling up with petrol at the moment. All sorts of car-parking facilities may find a new source of income by installing charging posts. I don't think there is any need for a top-down plan for charging stations, any more than there is for petrol stations now - market forces should be enough. One caveat though is the supply of power. Given the diurnal demand cycle, and green power variability, one can imagine demand-based pricing with teeth being introduced to smooth out demand.

What are the extra power requirements ? Assume 10M EVs, doing 4 miles per kW, and 25 miles per day. That's an averaged continuous power demand of about 3GW. Which is about 10% of current average demand, and 5% of total generating capacity. It's a lot, but not enough to break the grid. The problem is demand smoothing.

Not quite. The newer charger coming out is 11 kW, which draws about 45ish amps. Running that you'll charge your Telsa Model 3 50 kWh in about 7 hours. Your fuse is rated at 80amps - meaning you can't run anything that draws a lot of power i.e. an oven whilst charging your car. Once you want to take advantage of fast charging, you simply can't run that off the house.

That's one house.

The My Electric Avenue study of 100 users in the same location found that if you wanted wide spread adoption of super slow 3.5 kW charging you'd essentially need to centrally control who charged their car when. My Electric Avenue

the results, which come at a time when sales of plug-in cars have increased by 716% over the past two years, show that across Britain 32% of low voltage (LV) feeders (312,000 circuits) will require intervention when 40% - 70% of customers have EVs, based on 3.5 kW (16 amp) charging. Susceptible networks are typically characterised by available capacity of less than 1.5 kW per customer.

Traditionally, these findings would mean the replacement of underground cables in the public highway, however, My Electric Avenue has been trialling a lower cost solution to this in the form of ‘Esprit’. Esprit is an innovative piece of technology that can control the charging of EVs if the local electricity grid reaches a certain level of demand. By incorporating Esprit into networks, the project is the first real-life trial that has directly controlled domestic EV charging to prevent underground cables, overhead lines and substations being potentially overloaded.

Home charging is an awful solution; you can build charging points in petrol stations, supermarkets etc. that charge over 300 kW and full charge a 90 kWhr battery in less than five minutes. Without having to uplift substations, change fuses, ration when you charge you car, force people to park their cars away from their house to charge it.

If you want EV to be as conveint as cars are today, you need a charging infrastructure and quick as a petrol car - that's the only thing stopping it and government are going to have to fund it. I'd rather they did that than trident anyway.

 

[mauvais]

Sort of. You could look at it the other way round though: we'd probably like to have our cars filled up with petrol overnight if that made any sense. Fuelling mid-trip without a long stop is an unusual (albeit significant) use case, at least in the UK.

The other factor in this is that to some extent, autonomous cars - and cars as a service - partially solve the problem. They go away and charge instead of you having to support it at home. It doesn't even need to be properly accessible by humans like a car park is now.

 

[not-bono-ever]

They don't turn a profit. Per car delivered, they lose about $13k. Now you can argue that's internal investment or whatever, I don't know, but any story anyone tells with these numbers is creative accounting of some form or other.

how much debt are tesla running ?

 

[bemused]

how much debt are tesla running ?

Depends how you want to measure debt http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4-60D0032673CC/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-2Q.pdf

 

[not-bono-ever]

Pretty strightforward- they have a slab of cash that they are ripping through and have hit the coroprate markets twice with junk issuance so far this year. Lots of debt being used for the 5 year plan rollout and the likelyhood of far more as the business settles. Not saying that this a bad thing or too much, but its sorta boom or bust gamble. The brand is probabaly worth more now than their assets TBF.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There will be on-street and motorway service charging, and perhaps people will fast-charge their cars in the carpark during their 45 minute trip around the supermarket, similar to filling up with petrol at the moment. All sorts of car-parking facilities may find a new source of income by installing charging posts. I don't think there is any need for a top-down plan for charging stations, any more than there is for petrol stations now - market forces should be enough.

I was in a warehouse yesterday that is storing some imported Lidl-branded fast charging units, I assume they are going to be installed in their car-parks soon.

 

[Chz]

I think people aren't going to react that well to the 300kW chargers over time. I've seen a few (in a bus depot), and if everything isn't exactly right it will (quite correctly) refuse to charge. Given the abuse that people heap upon both their cars and the local infrastructure, I'll be surprised if much more than half of the fuckers are working on a given day. 300kW isn't a light tingle in your toes, and the safety systems are there for a reason.

These concerns go away (or at least lessen) with a more centralised infrastructure, which is why 300kW chargers unattended in your local Tesco car park aren't really going to catch on.