Vassall Ward byelection
- Thread starter knatchbull
- Start date
knatchbull
Active Member
Yes I raised the Claudette Hewitt matter (after receiving a rather pathethic letter about it from teh Lib Dems) with a friend who is a Labour activist in Vassall and he said that he had heard that she was so upset at not getting the Vassall Ward candidature that she left in a fit of pique - telling people the night she failed to be selected that she was going to leave Labour.
I think therefore she cant have been that committed to the party and the Lib Dems should proceed with caution - she will probably try to go back to Labour if they fail to select her a council candidate
I think therefore she cant have been that committed to the party and the Lib Dems should proceed with caution - she will probably try to go back to Labour if they fail to select her a council candidate
To be fair to her she was the Labour mayor of Lambeth for a year - and a Labour councillor from 2002- 2006 - so she's not exactly a short term member of the Labour party.
knatchbull
Active Member
I hope no political party at local or national level should expect to win or feel that they have a right to win.
However Lambeth is a on the whole a Labour borough.
Let us not forget that it was only a coalition with the Conservatives that allowed the Lib Dems to rule and in fact in the run up to the 2006 election labopur had more actual council seats that the Lib Dems. Also if you look at the results from 2002 labour received more actual votes than the Lib Dems. I would very much doubt if the Liberal Democrats are going to be in a position to take outright control of the borough at the next election in 2010.
Fair points all - but outright control is a possibility for the Lib Dems at the next election in 2010 - Lib Dems currently hold councillors in six wards, and have recently had councillors in four more wards - and only need councillors in 11 wards to win.
Out of the 21 wards in Lambeth:
Labour are in first or second place in all 21
Lib Dems are in first or second place in 16
Conservatives are first or second place in 3
Green are in second place in 2
So the only parties that have any hope at all of outright control are Lib Dems or Labour - obviously Labour have a sizeable (but not insurmoutable) lead.
Incidentally this also holds at other levels:
The Lambeth & Southwark GLA seat is a Lib Dem/Labour fight
All three Parliamentary seats in Lambeth have Labour in first place, Lib Dems in second.
Mmmm . . .
In the end it is all guessing. I sometimes wonder what percentage of voters decide in advance which way they will vote when they enter the polling booth!
Still -
* Labour don't seem to have done much for Vassall
* The sudden defection of a candidate is unusual
* Housing is in a dreadful mess
* Reid's defeat in Streatham suggests that even in his own party he may not be the flavour of the month
Friday morning will tell us what voters think.
Oh, yes, if anyone is interested, I'll be voting Green. I know they won't win, but their policies seem sensible, and they are concerned about local issues.
They are also a good protest vote for those who might vote Labour in a general election, but don't have a high opinion of them locally.
In the end it is all guessing. I sometimes wonder what percentage of voters decide in advance which way they will vote when they enter the polling booth!
Still -
* Labour don't seem to have done much for Vassall
* The sudden defection of a candidate is unusual
* Housing is in a dreadful mess
* Reid's defeat in Streatham suggests that even in his own party he may not be the flavour of the month
Friday morning will tell us what voters think.
Oh, yes, if anyone is interested, I'll be voting Green. I know they won't win, but their policies seem sensible, and they are concerned about local issues.
They are also a good protest vote for those who might vote Labour in a general election, but don't have a high opinion of them locally.
I completely respect your vote. But do bear in mind that in a tight Lib Dem / Labour contest then you're effectively making it easier to win for Labour by doing that.
And on the last minute decision making - most studies of elections show that it's a high proportion of voters who make up their minds at the last moment- something like 25% - this is one of the reasons that polls are often wrong on elections - pollsters poll a few days before the election while quite a lot of people still haven't made up their mind.
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
Only if he would otherwise have voted Lib-Dem.
A Green vote today can send an interesting signal to the two main parties dog-fighting it out to win Lambeth (the rough parity between Labour and the Lib-Dems is here for the foreseeable future I'd guess).
If the Green vote today in Vassell is larger than the gap between Labour and the Lib-Dems, both parties will absolutely automatically be forced to move greenward in an attempt to pick up that vote in the future. Given that I don't think anyone can see a huge difference between those two parties at the moment I think it's worth voting Green if for no other reason than to pressure both of them in that direction.
Only if he would otherwise have voted Lib-Dem.
A Green vote today can send an interesting signal to the two main parties dog-fighting it out to win Lambeth (the rough parity between Labour and the Lib-Dems is here for the foreseeable future I'd guess).
If the Green vote today in Vassell is larger than the gap between Labour and the Lib-Dems, both parties will absolutely automatically be forced to move greenward in an attempt to pick up that vote in the future. Given that I don't think anyone can see a huge difference between those two parties at the moment I think it's worth voting Green if for no other reason than to pressure both of them in that direction.
My green pitch for the Lib Dems is this:
When the Lib Dems were in power they introduced orange sacks - and recycling rates rose quite a lot.
Labour have done very little to make the rates keep rising - so rates of recycling have stagnated. Personally I find it difficult to keep orange sacks at all - at both my current and previous flats I've repeatedly ordered orange sacks and not had them arrive...
Plus the Lib Dems are the only party not planning to take a chunk off Brockwell Park - relevant to Vassall given the risk of Mostyn Gardens having flats built on it.
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
The lib-dems have traditionally been quite good on green issues, but if you really want to put pressure on them to back up their fine words with some serious attempts to actually put Lambeth in the vanguard of Local Authorities rather than constantly dragging behind I'd suggest a Green vote today might do that job rather better than a vote for either Labour or the Lib-dems.
In many wards and constituencies the smallness of the Green vote could be a case for arguing that it's a wasted vote. In a ward like Vassell that is finely balanced between two parties, both of which have a credible chance of controlling the council, every Green vote becomes something that both of those parties will automatically respond to come the next council elections.
We can assume that IF the Green vote today is larger than the margin of victory, both Labour and the Lib-Dems will move sharply in the direction of Green politics between now and the next full council election.
Incidentally what sort of green policies are you most interested in?
From my wanderings round Vassall I'd say that the biggest environmental issue is the pitiful levels of door / window insulation on the major council estates - given that something like 30% of UK emissions are from households and the biggest chunk of that is heating.
Just a warning - not everyone is votes at the same place - there are three or four different places you can vote in the ward. Your polling station will be marked on your poll card (which you don't need to vote)
If I had a poll card this would all be easier
That's probably the right place if you live in the east of the ward (ie Myatts Fields area).
Or you can phone the council to check on 020 7926 2170
Or you can PM me your address and I'll find out for you.
Vassall by election result
Steve Bradley - Lib Dem - 1209
Labour - 859
Conservative - 206
Green 109
Random others - 15
Steve Bradley's asked me to say thank you to all the urbanites he's met during the campaign while chatting to them on his doorstep.
Steve's in fact had an urban account for a while - and will post up here again in the near future.
Steve's asked me to ask all of his new constituents to PM him if you have issues. He's also offered to do an online surgery here if anyone has anything they want to discuss.
<Election nerdery>
This is an 11.5% swing from last time - if repeated at other elections the Lib Dems would win Lambeth council (with a large majority), all three Parliamentary seats in Lambeth and the GLA seat in Lambeth
And compared to the 2006 election Labour have lost almost half their vote - down from about 1400 to 850.
<Election nerdery>
Steve Bradley - Lib Dem - 1209
Labour - 859
Conservative - 206
Green 109
Random others - 15
Steve Bradley's asked me to say thank you to all the urbanites he's met during the campaign while chatting to them on his doorstep.
Steve's in fact had an urban account for a while - and will post up here again in the near future.
Steve's asked me to ask all of his new constituents to PM him if you have issues. He's also offered to do an online surgery here if anyone has anything they want to discuss.
<Election nerdery>
This is an 11.5% swing from last time - if repeated at other elections the Lib Dems would win Lambeth council (with a large majority), all three Parliamentary seats in Lambeth and the GLA seat in Lambeth
And compared to the 2006 election Labour have lost almost half their vote - down from about 1400 to 850.
<Election nerdery>
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
Firstly - well done! It seemed like the LDs had really gone for this seat and it just shows how hard work pays off, especially in byelections.
As I read it (from memory of last time) what really happened here is that the LD vote kind of held steady (up a small amount) and the labour vote collapsed.
What do you think was the main factor in that? I'm guessing that the whole ALMO saga turned off a large chunk of Labour's normal support - especially in the estates, but I can't think of anything else in particular.
publicity
All I had were leaflets through my door saying little apart from how crap the Lib Dems were in the past and how bad they would be in the future.
intensive canvassing
One fella knocked on my door and could not answer the few questions I had for him.
Then one day before the vote a women knocked on my door saying 'hi I hope Labour can count on your vote?'. I answered by saying 'why should I support you when you have done little or nothing to address the most basic issues?'. Her response was 'how about your wife, is she home?'
Pleased about the result
Perhaps more people would have voted if the polling station had not been so well hidden?
Brixton Hatter
Home is south London mate
my maths might be wrong, but by my calculations this result makes Lambeth council like this:
labour 38 (-1)
lib dem 18 (+1)
tories 6 (-)
labour 38 (-1)
lib dem 18 (+1)
tories 6 (-)
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
Interesting result, very interesting.
It's very hard to base predictions on it but I'm sure it won't stop everyone..
Do you think this has any rammifications for May1st? I know if the same 400odd voters deserted Labour in each ward across Lambeth and Southwark, Val Shawcross would lose her seat. But of course, it isn't as simple as that..
Predictions on a postcard please..
It's very hard to base predictions on it but I'm sure it won't stop everyone..
Do you think this has any rammifications for May1st? I know if the same 400odd voters deserted Labour in each ward across Lambeth and Southwark, Val Shawcross would lose her seat. But of course, it isn't as simple as that..
Predictions on a postcard please..
The normal guidelines of logical reasoning are generally faulty when applied to politics or religion, but let's see where they might lead us here!
Lambeth was the only London Borough that bucked the trend in the 2006 LG elections and returned an increased Labour vote. I don't think that the national Party has increased in popularity under Brown.
We have just seen the result in Vassall, following on the massive rejection of Steve Reed in Streatham, which would suggest that the Party's local policies are not gaining it any friends at the moment. There have also been defections from Labour reported in Croydon and other boroughs.
The "Jasper Effect" and the fact that Ken, although still a ***** performer, is beginning to look tired, and his administration appears to be running out of ideas, won't help.
Frankly, I wouldn't put my money on Shawcross.
I guess that many must wonder why, when she appeared to have by far the largest following for the Streatham parliamentary selection, she chose not to run. I am not convinced that it had anything to do with a possible clash with her GLA campaign.
Still Boris is entirely awful, and who is the local Conman?
In Lambeth we know Brian Paddick, and he will certainly get my vote for Mayor. When he speaks he comes across as being both able and sincere. He has also proved himself in the real world outside politics! So far he has not had much exposure in the media, but he may well stride ahead in the endgame
I think there is still all to play for on every side, so I won't be placing my bet until the final week. Ask me again then, if you are still interested.
Lambeth was the only London Borough that bucked the trend in the 2006 LG elections and returned an increased Labour vote. I don't think that the national Party has increased in popularity under Brown.
We have just seen the result in Vassall, following on the massive rejection of Steve Reed in Streatham, which would suggest that the Party's local policies are not gaining it any friends at the moment. There have also been defections from Labour reported in Croydon and other boroughs.
The "Jasper Effect" and the fact that Ken, although still a ***** performer, is beginning to look tired, and his administration appears to be running out of ideas, won't help.
Frankly, I wouldn't put my money on Shawcross.
I guess that many must wonder why, when she appeared to have by far the largest following for the Streatham parliamentary selection, she chose not to run. I am not convinced that it had anything to do with a possible clash with her GLA campaign.
Still Boris is entirely awful, and who is the local Conman?
In Lambeth we know Brian Paddick, and he will certainly get my vote for Mayor. When he speaks he comes across as being both able and sincere. He has also proved himself in the real world outside politics! So far he has not had much exposure in the media, but he may well stride ahead in the endgame
I think there is still all to play for on every side, so I won't be placing my bet until the final week. Ask me again then, if you are still interested.
It will be strange in a way, in 2004, Southwark had Hughes, in 2008, Lambeth has Paddick.
I hope the closeness pushes the turnout up. I'm sure all that are reading are aware of the threat of the BNP gaining a seat..
Whoever becomes mayor, we must wish that they don't have to deal with anyone from THAT party!
I hope the closeness pushes the turnout up. I'm sure all that are reading are aware of the threat of the BNP gaining a seat..
Whoever becomes mayor, we must wish that they don't have to deal with anyone from THAT party!
Interesting result, very interesting.
It's very hard to base predictions on it but I'm sure it won't stop everyone..
Do you think this has any rammifications for May1st? I know if the same 400odd voters deserted Labour in each ward across Lambeth and Southwark, Val Shawcross would lose her seat. But of course, it isn't as simple as that..
Predictions on a postcard please..
There are about 40 wards across Lambeth & Southwark, and the Labour majority in the GLA seat last time was about 5,000.
So if 63 or so voters in each ward switch from Labour to Lib Dem (ie making 125 or so difference to the majority) then Shawcross loses her seat to Caroline Pidgeon (Lib Dem).
Or (given that the green & conservative vote fell in Vassall) 125 Conservative / Green voters could vote Lib Dem in each ward for this to happen.
So perfectly possible.
Incidentally in Southwark in the Riverside ward just before Christmas the trend was similar for all the parties.
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
Doesn't look to me like there was much of a swing going on; more that the Lib dem vote held steady (up a little) but the Labour vote collapsed. That could still give the GLA seat to the Lib-dems of course, but it also looks to me like Labour didn't put anything like as much energy into Vassell as the LDs - I wouldn't have thought that'd be the case for the GLA?
Not sure how the "green vote fell in Vassell" - they didn't stand last time and effectively put up a paper candidate this time.
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