Unless Elevation Partners are truly insane, Palm really must have something fucking amazing up its sleeve.
Over the next two days, I'll game out two ideas for what Palm's hopeful sunburst will be -- one, a game-changer; the other, game over. Let's begin with the game-changer, an idea that would allow Palm to make good on board member Roger McNamee's pledge to "transform the cell phone industry."
Be kind, rewind with me
Innovators zig as others zag. That's the challenge Palm faces, to do something that neither Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) nor Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) nor Nokia (NYSE: NOK) nor Motorola (NYSE: MOT) has done or is doing now. I can think of one thing: handwriting recognition.
Handwriting recognition has vexed the industry for years. Only a few have made it work well enough to win customers. Apple tried with the Newton, which, in turn, birthed a series of non-starters such as Go's tablet computer. IBM (NYSE: IBM) was even in on handwriting recognition for a time. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) had it in a tablet PC version of the uncommonly durable Windows XP operating system.
We tend to forget that where these others failed, Palm succeeded.
Surely I can't be the only one to remember the old PalmPilot and its Graffiti recognition system, can I? Graffiti set the Pilot apart because it was an easy-to-learn language, and therefore a better alternative to deciphering barely legible scribblings.
Record sales followed. Press reports from 1998 show that the PalmPilot captured roughly 66% of the market in its first 18 months of release. More than 1 million units were sold, five times more than what Apple's Newton sold in its entire history.
Palm's relatively new executive chairman, Jon Rubinstein, is the perfect man to lead the effort. He's been involved with closed systems since 1990, when he worked with Jobs at NeXT. Seven years later, he rejoined Jobs, this time at Apple, where he led the development of one of history's most successful closed systems: the iPod.
All signs point to Nova being the moment at which Palm parts ways with Mr. Softy.
And if it doesn't? If Nova is just another OS for the Treo? If CEO Ed Colligan chooses choice over innovation? Imagine the confusion. Buy the Windows Treo! No, buy the Nova Treo! It'd be the Foleo all over again: Two systems, incompatible, fighting for space in the customer's confused mind.
Or as blogger Josh Catone of sitepoint.com predicted recently, "The Nova operating system will look like something that could challenge Android, Blackberry, and the iPhone in the mobile market, but success will depend on the hardware." [Emphasis added.]
Let's hope not, Josh. If the history of mobile computing tells us anything, it's that neither hardware, nor software, but the whole product matters most. A closed system, self-contained and elegantly designed.
Ship anything less, Palm, and this Nova will burn you.
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/12/30/how-palm-could-lose-everything.aspx
Er if handwriting is Palm's big weapon they're more fucked than I thought...
More: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2008/dec/23/palm-nova-investmentI still own and even use a Palm T3. These days I mainly use it to read news via the wonderful but underappreciated AvantGo service. I have a shiny Nokia N82 for contacts, and the Palm conduits that haven't been updated since who knows when, leading to contact creep, multiple copies of the same contact. This is all to say that I wish that Palm would to return to its place as innovator.
The San Jose Mercury News' Chris O'Brien just listed Palm as a company to watch, not as a company set for success in 2009 but one along with AMD and Sun that might just join the deadpool. As if to say, I'm not dead yet, Palm is offering details of a new OS (finally) and a new infusion of cash from Elevation Partners. While O'Brien shares my good will towards Palm, he asks:
But will Palm run out of time before it gets to see its turnaround strategy bear fruit?
Palm's financials are grim. In December, the company announced its sixth consecutive quarterly loss. Standard & Poor's downgraded Palm's debt rating to CCC+ - perilously close to junk - citing "substantial risk".
In the midst of this gloom, Palm has confirmed that it will be showing off its new OS, Nova. Nova must be giving Microsoft's Vista or Apple's migration from its Classic OS to OS X a run for the longest delayed OS upgrade. Well, at least Apple and Microsoft continued to regularly update their OSes until they got a new one out. Palm's decided to split itself in two in 2003, with one company to develop the OS and another to build the handhelds. It's been downhill ever since. But don't expect devices with Nova until later in 2009.
http://palmaddict.typepad.com/palmaddicts/2009/01/palm-is-said-to.htmlJohn Biggs from CrunchGear posted up information from a trusted source surrounding the latest Palm smartphone to run the new Nova OS: "The new phone will have a full QWERTY keyboard that will slide down under a portrait-oriented touchscreen."
Still according to his source, the new operating system is described as "amazing" and "iPhone-like". Even further reveals there will be a full software bazaar on launch... like Apple's App Store & Android Market.
I don't want to put my hopes way too high in the cloud on this rumor, but I'm more than pleased to know that Palm still able to generate a quite great deal of buzz and make bloggers start to talk about Palm prominence once again. Like for instance these two encouraging comments from famous tech blogs:
- Matthew Miller (ZDNet): "If this new design is real and it runs a much more optimized and current OS, then Palm could really have a winner on its hands. You know that I will definitely be buying one since I have a place in my heart for Palm and like the latest and greatest devices."
- Darren Murph (Engadget): "We can't help but say that we're pretty jazzed to hear positive vibes flowing just before CES really gets in gear, but we'll attempt to remain placid until something a touch more concrete is revealed."
Particularly as they had to abandon the original Graffiti and now use the same system as everyone else.
I'm quite looking forward to Thursday's announcement. To be honest, I can't see them pulling it out of the bag - it's all happened far too late and I can't see how they can produce the kind of cutting edge apps that are turning up on the iPhone/Android etc platforms. Is there even anyone actively developing Palm apps left?
I've reluctantly resigned myself to changing platforms some time ago, and much as I'd love them to produce an absolute killer of a product, I'm none too hopeful.
I'm quite looking forward to Thursday's announcement. To be honest, I can't see them pulling it out of the bag - it's all happened far too late and I can't see how they can produce the kind of cutting edge apps that are turning up on the iPhone/Android etc platforms. Is there even anyone actively developing Palm apps left?
I've reluctantly resigned myself to changing platforms some time ago, and much as I'd love them to produce an absolute killer of a product, I'm none too hopeful.
I'd imagine that's pretty cheap compared to the kind of cash the likes of Apple and Nokia have had to slop around.I think that if the product is killer, Applications will flow from that. I am very interested to see what a $100 million dollar gadget looks like.
That's taken this long to produce...is it the Chinese Democracy of the mobile world?
It's going to be a software conflict.(am also getting really bummed out by a persistent problem with my Centro - a call comes in and the phone freezes/crashes....hmm maybe it is something to do with the "Turn off Touchscreen when call comes in" - option...argh now I can't find that pref..anyone know where it is?..sorry for derail)
(am also getting really bummed out by a persistent problem with my Centro - a call comes in and the phone freezes/crashes....hmm maybe it is something to do with the "Turn off Touchscreen when call comes in" - option...argh now I can't find that pref..anyone know where it is?..sorry for derail)