The Islamic state

[coley]

i wouldn't be so despondant - the important thing is that IS have very publicly been stopped in their tracks and given a right shoeing in the process. they aren't finished yet (and yes, there is a propaganda benefit in 'we've not been defeated yet'), but the direction of travel is obvious for all to see. this is not going to end in IS holding a large swaithe of territory and building their caliphate within it...

add to this - as you say, winter is coming, and winter in that part of the world is not 3 months on the Costa del Sol, it is frighteningly cold, horribly windy, and about as vile a place to be living out of doors as your whining, dissapointed-he's-not-beheading-westerners-and raping slave-girls Jihadi tourist will be able to imagine.

the chap mentioned in the piece posted by J Ed is not the first to whine about the realities, and as winter sets in he won't be the last. so much of IS attraction was based on their rather dashing ride through the desert - living in a covered trench with 5 other blokes, with 6 inches of freezing cold water at the bottom, and shitting in a bucket while waiting to be bombed by aircraft that can see the heat your meagre fire gives off is not glamourous. it will lose its appeal pretty quickly.

Sergeant, why do we have to dig the sleeping trench at an angle to the fighting trench? Easier to bury the buggers who were asleep, was the reply

 

[coley]

certainly is - i don't doubt most here would prefer that all of IS had been cold in the ground for 3 months and folk were just able to get on with their already difficult lives, but the situation, while not going as fast as we might want, is still going on the right direction.

more aircraft on station, aircraft based closer, perhaps looser ROE's, more ground weapon availability for local forces, and lets be straight up, outside ground forces would help...

They would but for how long? IS would trumpet 'crusader invasion' and all the delicate alliances we are witnessing would gan ti Shyte, things ain't perfect by a long chalk but let things develop at a ME pace rather than a western driven one.

 

[FNG]

Following on from the stand off between Badr and Peshmerga at Saidya, after Badrists alledged Peshmerga did nothing to assist the capture of the town,insisting the Iranians provided assistance capturing the town.The Peshmerga issued their casualty figures for the fighting 20 killed 40 injured.

Whatever the relations between the KRG and the Iraq govt sponsored Badr militia one thing is certain both sides were co-ordinating their attacks with irans revolutionary guards corps.

Leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) meeting with peshmerga and Qads in october

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...al-Qassem-Suleimani-in-rare-Iraq-picture.html

 

[kebabking]

interesting to see both Iran and the US furiously denying that there had been any co-ordination/deconfliction/target sharing whatsoever over Iranian airstrikes on IS in Iraq..

very convincing. i've got a bridge here for sale...

 

[FNG]

either way the potential for an accidental shooting down of either parties aircraft must be a nightmare to manage considering the syrians still also have an active airforce and are also flying sorties in the area with the nominal role of defending thier airspace

 

[kebabking]

either way the potential for an accidental shooting down of either parties aircraft must be a nightmare to manage considering the syrians still also have an active airforce and are also flying sorties in the area with the nominal role of defending thier airspace

i rather get the impression that not only is there a back channel where all parties involved lets everyone else involved know what they'll be doing, but that there's a gentlemens' (in the loosest/most ironic sense of the word...) agreement that each side will resist the temptation to have a pop at an old enemy in order to have an unrestricted pop at a new one. i don't however doubt that the whole area is AWACS'd up to the hilt to ensure that no one blunders into anyone else and causes a nasty surprise.

one of the things that supports this is that when you see pictures of the aircraft involved, they aren't wasting weight/fuel/weapon stations carrying loads of air-to-air misiles that, theoretically, they should need to defend themselves in this nest of hornets.

one is very much reminded of the raids the Israeli's regularly carry out, where it appears that everone else in the area, some of whome are technically at war with the Israeli's, accidentally switch all their radar systems off at a convenient time so they can claim they knew nothing about the whole thing...

 

[teqniq]

... and are also flying sorties in the area with the nominal role of defending thier airspace

No, they are also bombing their own people.

 

[DownwardDog]

either way the potential for an accidental shooting down of either parties aircraft must be a nightmare to manage considering the syrians still also have an active airforce and are also flying sorties in the area with the nominal role of defending thier airspace

There is no way the SyAAF will be 'active' when coalition strike package comes barrelling through. There will be no shortage of USAF/USN hot shots that are absolutely desperate to get a MiG-29 silhouette stenciled on the nose of the jet.

 

[coley]

That's grim, surprised though that the defenders haven't managed to acquire some SAMs?

 

[coley]

There is no way the SyAAF will be 'active' when coalition strike package comes barrelling through. There will be no shortage of USAF/USN hot shots that are absolutely desperate to get a MiG-29 silhouette stenciled on the nose of the jet.

Won't a helicopter suffice in the meantime?

 

[Dogsauce]

There will be no shortage of USAF/USN hot shots that are absolutely desperate to get a MiG-29 silhouette stenciled on the nose of the jet.

They can stick it next to the stencil of the wedding party.

 

[kebabking]

They can stick it next to the stencil of the wedding party.

wedding parties are so old hat - orphanages are the new target of choice, especially if you can get one with some particularly telegenic kids. you'll get some good back stories as well.

 

[FNG]

No, they are also bombing their own people.

Sorry assumed everyone was up to speed on what the Syrian air force was up to,

 

[DownwardDog]

a good parallel is the story of the 200 schoolgirls kidnapped in Nigeria - its got to have been nearly six months ago, the story today is the same as the story 3 days after they went missing. what makes it an even closer parallel is the fact that within a week the UK sent 3(?) RAF Tornado GR4 strike/reece aircraft to look for them - they are, iirc, still there, still flying, still burning aviation fuel and fatigue hours. when however was the last time you saw any media attention given to the story?

They are in Akrotiri now on Operation Levantine Ambiguity where they are mostly broken. There is no way the RAF could support two simultaneous GR4 deployments. Of the 100+ jets only 16 GR4s have all the right bits for combat ops. So that 16 will only be able to generate a force of 2-4 aircraft that actually work at any one time.

 

[J Ed]

Lots of fighting in Deir Ezzor over the past couple of days between ISIS and regime forces, US airstrikes against ISIS aiding the SAA.

 

[FNG]

Looking at some of the twitter links,seems you are right replacements, rather than additional reinforcements.

confirmation that they were replacements rather than reinforcements

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/fi...-home.aspx?pageID=238&nID=75219&NewsCatID=352

 

[J Ed]

Israeli airstrikes near Damascus

Reports that an Israeli plane has been shot down by the Assad regime

 

[J Ed]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.630359

Reports by UN observers in the Golan Heights over the past 18 months reveal the type and extent of cooperation between Israel and Syrian opposition figures. The reports, submitted to the 15 members of the UN Security Council and available on the UN’s website, detail regular contacts held on the border between IDF officers and soldiers and Syrian rebels.

The observer force, UNDOF, was established in 1974 as part of the separation of forces agreement between Israel and Syria. The agreement set up a buffer zone several kilometers wide. About 1,000 UN observers supervised the implementation of the agreement until 2013, when the Syrian civil war severely reduced the force’s ability to function.

While Croatia and Austria pulled out and Ireland, Fiji and India agreed to send troops, the increase of attacks on UN forces in recent months caused the force to abandon many of its positions along the front and to transfer its command to the Israeli side of the border.

The observers have continued to file reports to New York, which were relatively mundane; but their content changed in March 2013, when Israel started admitting injured Syrians for medical treatment in Safed and Nahariya hospitals. The Syrian ambassador to the UN complained of widespread cooperation between Israel and Syrian rebels, not only treatment of the wounded but also other aid.

Israel at first asserted the injured were civilians reaching the border of their own initiative and without prior coordination because they could not obtain suitable treatment in Syria. Later, as the numbers increased, Israel said it was coordinating with civilians but not opposition groups. However, the reports reveal direct contact between the IDF and armed opposition members.

According to a report from December 3, 2013, a person wounded on September 15 “was taken by armed members of the opposition across the ceasefire line, where he was transferred to a civilian ambulance escorted by an IDF vehicle." Moreover, from November 9 to 19 the “UNDOF observed at least 10 wounded persons being transferred by armed members of the opposition from the Bravo side across the ceasefire line to IDF."

Further reports indicated similar incidents. However, cooperation between the IDF and Syrian rebels that was revealed in UN observer reports does not just include transferring the wounded. Observers remarked in the report distributed on June 10 that they identified IDF soldiers on the Israeli side handing over two boxes to armed Syrian opposition members on the Syrian side.

The last report distributed to Security Council members, on December 1, described another meeting between IDF soldiers and Syrian opposition members that two UN representatives witnessed on October 27 some three kilometers east of Moshav Yonatan. The observers said they saw two IDF soldiers on the eastern side of the border fence opening the gate and letting two people enter Israel. The report, contrary to previous ones, did not note that the two exiting Syria were injured or why they entered Israel.

This specific event is of particular interest in light of what happened on the Syrian side of the border in the exact same region. According to the report, UN observers stated that tents were set up about 300 meters from the Israeli position for some 70 families of Syrian deserters. The Syrian army sent a letter of complaint to UNDOF in September, claiming this tent camp was a base for “armed terrorists” crossing the border into Israel. The Syrians also warned that if the UN would not evacuate the tent camp, the Syrian army would view it as a legitimate target.

 

[FNG]

Reports that an Israeli plane has been shot down by the Assad regime

not seeing any confirmation yet, Jeruselem post reporting successful raid against Airport and warehouse believed to be containing S-300 missile launchers en route for Hizbollah.

 

[FNG]

The more paranoid online suggest that the airstrikes were held back deliberately until Daesh were entrenched in & around Kobani, allowing both IS & the revolutionary cantons to be dulled. I've not seen enough evidence of long-term strategic planning to feel this is credible - is it credible?
.

I dont think it is most military observers/press ect expected Kobani to fall pretty quickly after admitedly fierce resistance. The context to take into account is that Isis over ran the theoretically on paper at least larger, better equipped and bigger defensive position at Mosul in a matter of days and the yezidi in a similar timeframe. There was no indication that the YPG would be any better equipped to resist or that ISIS wouldn't simply withdraw entirely and strike elsewhere.

Any credit for the strategy of defeating Isis at Kobani belongs with the local commanders on the ground.

 

[butchersapron]

I suspect people here have read most of these, but useful to have in one place:

Syria: Top 12 Essential Articles (and plenty more).

 

[CNT36]

I suspect people here have read most of these, but useful to have in one place:

Syria: Top 12 Essential Articles (and plenty more).

I had an email from OR books today I thought you may enjoy

Winner of the 2014 British Press Awards Foreign Affairs Journalist of the Year
“The Government should consider pensioning off the whole of MI6 and hiring Patrick Cockburn instead.”

CONGRATULATIONS TO PATRICK COCKBURN

Winner of the 2014 British Press Awards Foreign Affairs Journalist of the Year for his coverage of the emergence of ISIS

The judges said: “Patrick Cockburn spotted the emergence of ISIS much earlier than anybody else and wrote about it with a depth of understanding that was in a league of its own. Nobody else was writing that stuff at that time, and the judges wondered whether the Government should consider pensioning off the whole of MI6 and hiring Patrick Cockburn instead. The breadth of his knowledge and his ability make connections is phenomenal.”


Read the book based on the award-winning journalism

 

[teqniq]

Isis: the inside story

 

[Crispy]

Isis: the inside story

Interesting stuff.

Isis, a group of marauders unparalleled in Mesopotamia since the time of the Mongols

Steady on.

 

[krink]

There's a programme about ISIS starting now on the uk PBS channel if anyones interested.

 

[Geri]

There's a programme about ISIS starting now on the uk PBS channel if anyones interested.

Thanks, have recorded it.

 

[krink]

It seemed OK to my non expert eyes but the last few minutes show how fast things change because it was already dated.

 

[FNG]

Indian Police capture a key ISIS propagandist in Bangalore.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...-group-vows-to-free-him/article1-1296237.aspx

 

[FNG]

This is a bit of a curveball from the KRG, showing support for a Sunni autonomous region in Iraq http://en.trend.az/world/arab/2342138.html?

Relations between the KRG and the Iraqi central govt have been strained to breaking point over Oil export payments being delayed and witheld and in recent days the KRG have infuriated the Iraqis by signing independent drilling rights with the French bypassing the central govt and their traditional cut.

 

[kebabking]

significant - quadroupling, and change - increase in UK forces being sent to Iraq to train the Iraqi Army and Kurdish forces.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30464272

Fallon also talking about 'kit left over from Afghanistan' - almost certainly IED protected vehicles. don't fancy winter in Kurdistan, but a spring tour might be nice...