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Recent attacks in Iraq

Advancing on Baghdad it's reported, but Damascus remains a goal.

The US Saudi relationship is extraordinary. Surely it has to crack at some point?
 
Advancing on Baghdad it's reported, but Damascus remains a goal.

The US Saudi relationship is extraordinary. Surely it has to crack at some point?

Saudi Arabia gets less criticism than Israel. Which is saying something.

Maybe it's why they want shale gas so much?
 
Meanwhile

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Theres a shameless and self-righteous comment piece from one of Blair's advisors here: http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ng-saddam-was-right-go-back-to-iraq-democracy
but one thing i do agree with him on is:
"It is an appalling reflection on the House of Commons that MPs – a majority of whom voted for the Iraq war – chose not to ask a single question about the fall of Mosul at prime minister's questions."

They are politicians who in some respects are 'apolitical'. If they'd had a scrap of political conviction, or even had heard the odd Bill Hicks sketch, they would have found reason to vote against.

Harriet Harman's disconnect on the issue is telling. Voting for the war wasn't enough to break her stride. Blair's mendacity they feel can absolve them of their own implication.
 
Another report suggests they've all been executed. With Sunni soldiers pardoned. No corroborative reports for either though.
could be a scare story to try and break morale of ISF
id like to know more about why ISF arent resisting and the psychology/thinking/beliefs/mood/behind it.
How many people in Iraq actually care to protect the state of Iraq as defined by the borders imposed by the British?
 
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That would seem a bit extreme. If true, the whole Middle East is about to go up in flames. Again.
then again
UN alarm over summary executions
The UN says it has verified reports of summary executions in areas taken over by Isis militants.
The number of those killed may run into the hundreds, according to UN human rights spokesman Rupert Colville.

Reuters adds:
He said his office had reports the killings included the execution of 17 civilians working for the police and a court employee in central Mosul.
Four women had killed themselves after being raped, 16 Georgians had been kidnapped, and prisoners released by the militants had been looking to exact revenge on those responsible for their incarceration, he said.
"We've also had reports suggesting that the government forces have also committed excesses, in particular the shelling of civilian areas on 6 and 8 June," he said. "There are claims that up to 30 civilians may have been killed."
 
ISIS in Syria = Rebels.
ISIS in Iraq = Terrorists.

Yeah?


Some general points:

1) The people that 'took' mosul were not simply ISIS - they were a coalition of baathists, nationalists and sunni tribes - all with competing short term aims. In areas that ISIS has previously taken they have then turned their guns on their former partners - this is their recognised MO and there is little reason to expect different here. Which leads on to

2) I expect the shia led govt to now cut down on the sectarian rhetoric and try to re-activate their previous (unkept to) deal with the Sons of Iraq or their successors in the immediate future (and then to drop it and them and cause the cycle to repeat in the longer-medium term). This is what i expect the sunni leaders are waiting on and why they've been going along with ISIS for now, to apply pressure to the central govt. These people easily ran the ISIS forerunners out of the area during the civil war and i think they would be capable of doing so again if given enough motivation and opportunity.

3) ISIS are not being welcomed in the places they are taking - they're not being opposed. Two very different things. esp in these areas of iraq that have gone from side to side over the last decades - i remember distributing stuff about whole towns being ran in these areas by deserters from Saddam's forces well before gulf war one was even on the horizion. There's a whole school of how the populations learn to survive/deal with successive occupations/rule etc and what to do when things change. Don't confuse lack of open opposition with warm welcomes.

4) Numerous large well armed shia militias between Tikrit and Baghdad - ISIS hopes to drag them into it in order to tie the sunni militias to their side for now and sectarianise local conflicts. That will be a key political battleground. Other more experienced and loyal Iraqi forces are available - they're just busy elsewhere clearing up after other local sunni rebellions.

5) ISIS are moving too quick to gain popular legitimacy within Iraq apart from in villages along the border with syria - and whilst they now contain more Iraqis (youth paid $200 in hand and promised fun and travel) than the previous Iraq in Mesopotamia formations (easily defeated) they are still largely composed of foreigners with different traditions and cultures to the Iraqis - traditions that led to them being unable to effectively govern areas they had taken control of, that pissed off the local leaders and lead to them being kicked out sharpish when it was decided to move against them.

6) Whole lot of panicking and hyperbole going on.
 
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Given the increasingly sectarian and urgent nature of this, what odds on the Iranians stepping in officially by sending their army in? Could we even see the Saudis, the US and Iran all on the same side?
 
Given the increasingly sectarian and urgent nature of this, what odds on the Iranians stepping in officially by sending their army in? Could we even see the Saudis, the US and Iran all on the same side?
Atm, slim. The revolutionary guard leader was reported to be in Baghdad yesterday though inspecting the shia militias. Iran is also strongly rumoured to have funded ISIS in syria as well in order to deligitimise the opposition. But, we simply don't know what games are going on between these groups.
 
Given the increasingly sectarian and urgent nature of this, what odds on the Iranians stepping in officially by sending their army in? Could we even see the Saudis, the US and Iran all on the same side?

The long and ugly Iran-Iraq war and it's lasting affect on the Iraqi psyche would make such a move unwise on some levels. Plus it would be a boost to the opposition in terms of propaganda, since characterising Maliki as an Iranian puppet is quite a part of their message. However I'm sure it would be a mistake for me to think that either of these points would be enough to temper Iranian involvement if the situation gets desperate enough.

I suppose it also comes down to a rather different military setup than we are used to talking of when using terms like 'officially sending their army in'. Revolutionary wings and militias, and the role they play in internal security as well as dealing with external threats.

I suspect it may continue to be hard for us to determine the exact level of Iranian involvement, as it has elsewhere that the likes of Quds force is said to have been operating at various points in the last decade. Most of the press reports of recent days on this subject have been repeating details from a WSJ article, which quotes unnamed sources.
 
ISIS in Syria = Rebels.
ISIS in Iraq = Terrorists.
Looking at the current situation in Iraq. This ISIS group, are they not the from the same stock of Islamic extremists that helped NATO to oust Gadafi and are trying to oust Assad in Syria? And here was I thinking that the last 15 years of war was about stopping this kind of extremism. How stupid I feel.
 
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