Omicron news

[kabbes]

I didnt do any maths to the case numbers. I took the actual recorded case numbers, and checked how many more times that amount has already been reached in London at its highest Omicron point seen in the data so far. Then I took peak hospital rates from Delta wave for London and multiplied them by the same factor. Then I divided them to account for the decrease mentioned in the aforementioned study. Number came out significantly lower than a number already seen in the London hospital data in this Omicron wave.

Reasons why I would not have expected this crude attempt to match the actual figures at all includes the need to take into account age of cases, hospital infections, and those who went to hospital for other reasons but were already infected before admission as discussed in previous post. I only did this exercise briefly, mostly so I could then warn others not to base their expectations on this simplified method or how many hospital admissions there were at peak in London in the delta wave.

The ratio for delta at its peak was lower than the current ratio for omicron? I suspect you are seeing some relative of the effect I was talking about, then. I think you probably need the integrals of the total cases and total hospitalisations, otherwise it will be affected by how close you are to the inflection point.

Mind you, it's been a long time since I needed to think about calculus things, so I could be well off.

 

[elbows]

I dont do that sort of maths in the pandemic, I was not trying to replicate what a proper study would do, and if I wanted to do it properly I'd need to wait for a whole lot more Omicron hospitalisation data and then do it with much hindsight. I just focussed on peaks and levels seen so far so I could advise others not to go down this simplistic path in an attempt to guide their expectations of what is to come, its not a reliable guide.

 

[kabbes]

Well I certainly agree with you there!

 

[elbows]

Its not something I'd even have brought up if it were not for the fact that some people think they've seen a peak in cases in London already. For some of those inclined to do that premature peak hunting (I have in past waves but am not doing so this time) there is then the temptation to use that to set their expectations of when the London region will see a peak in hospitalisations. And they might use estimates of Omicron severity and peak case numbers in this wave compared to the Delta wave to check whether their expectations of peak hospital numbers seem to fit that sort of range. I'd advise not to do that while hospital numbers are still in their explosive phase, especially given how sharp the explosion in case numbers was.

 

[elbows]

That might also be why the government have picked 400 as a threshold for London hospitalisations in data available by the end of this week, in order to guide their decision-making (if that story is even true). Because if we add the couple of days data reporting lag to the expected lag between cases and hospitalisations, they are probably thinking that the explosive growth in daily hospitalisations would have that number sailing well past 400 by the end of the week, lining up with the explosion in positive cases already seen last week. But if something else was happening that enabled the optimists or wishful thinkers hopes to remain fully intact, ie no 'exponential explosion with very short doubling times' in the next few days hospital admissions data, then they can continue to justify to themselves the lack of additional restrictions.

 

[elbows]

And the following is why I'm not keen on the talk about a cases peak in London, at least not when used to make claims about a hospitalisation peak.

Here are the daily positive cases by specimen date for the London region by age group. Note that falls in certain younger groups, where overall numbers got very high, have resulted in the overall totals doing what they've done recently. Note the rather different trend in other age groups. And note that since this is positive cases by specimen date, several more recent days data in incomplete and will grow in future.




I'm also tagging teuchter here because they have been going on about a peak in cases.

 

[two sheds]

Not so promising - although not yet peer reviewed:

Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta; COVID-19 lowers sperm count, motility

The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.

www.reuters.com

Dec 20 (Reuters) - The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.

Omicron infections no less severe based on early UK data

Infections caused by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus do not appear to be less severe than infections from Delta, according to early data from the UK.

Researchers at Imperial College London compared 11,329 people with confirmed or likely Omicron infections with nearly 200,000 people infected with other variants. So far, according to a report issued ahead of peer review and updated on Monday, they see "no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection."

Coronavirus goes for the goolies

Sperm quality is impaired for months for some people after recovery from COVID-19, researchers have found.

...

The semen itself was not infectious, the researchers found. But among 35 men who provided samples within a month after recovery from symptomatic infection, reductions in sperm motility were evident in 60% and sperm counts were reduced in 37%.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Coronavirus goes for the goolies

Personally this is of zero worry to me.

 

[two sheds]

Personally this is of zero worry to me.

hehe me neither - would count as an advantage

 

[bluescreen]

Personally this is of zero worry to me.

Funnily enough, I suspect the alleged anti-sperm properties of Omicron might be the persuasive factor for some - not all - vaccine-hesitant people to finally surrender their arms to the noxious needle.

 

[Epona]

Yep. True of a lot of people. Wandering through London the last couple of days, it has been deserted. Pubs still open but empty.

Whatever the reason for it, the rapid rise does appear to have halted, although we do still need this week's numbers to be sure of that. By far the biggest rises in infection in London came in the 20-40 age group, though, which is the age group least likely to drastically alter its behaviour.

For sure, in normal times with OH having a week off work we'd have been in the pub a couple of times, out shopping in Stratford (pre-Xmas window shopping and perhaps buying a couple of gifts), maybe meeting up with friends, he might have had a work Xmas party to go to - nope, I want to see my parents on Xmas day so we are having some quality sofa + telly time and being really careful if we need to shop.

 

[MrCurry]

Funnily enough, I suspect the alleged anti-sperm properties of Omicron might be the persuasive factor for some - not all - vaccine-hesitant people to finally surrender their arms to the noxious needle.

I wonder if this guy is feeling quite as smug as when he had the Tshirt printed…

 

[elbows]

oops double post, see the next post instead.

 

[elbows]

In regards the whole thing about hospitalisations where the people are being treated primarily for covid rather than it being incidental:



Also I may as well quote the blurb about this stuff from the NHS data site:

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

A number of data collections have been implemented to support incident management. The collections were activated at short notice and the content of the collections has evolved as the incident has developed. The data collected is classified as management information. It has been collected on a...

www.england.nhs.uk

The majority of inpatients with Covid-19 are admitted as a result of the infection. A subset of those who contract Covid in the community and are asymptomatic, or exhibited relatively mild symptoms that on their own are unlikely to warrant admission to hospital, will then be admitted to hospital to be treated for something else and be identified through routine testing. However these patients still require their treatment in areas that are segregated from patients without Covid, and the presence of Covid can be a significant co-morbidity in many cases. Equally, while the admission may be due to another primary condition, in many instances this may have been as a result of contracting Covid in the community. For example research has shown that people with Covid are more likely to have a stroke (Stroke Association); in these cases people would be admitted for the stroke, classified as ‘with’ Covid despite having had a stroke as a result of having Covid.

The headline published numbers in publications to date have been “inpatients with confirmed Covid” without differentiating between those in hospital “for” Covid and those in hospital “with” Covid. Recognising the combination of high community infections rates, with the reduced likelihood of admission for those who contract Covid in the community and are fully vaccinated, the Covid SitRep was enhanced in June 2021 to add a requirement for providers to distinguish between those being primarily treated ‘for’ Covid and those ‘with’ Covid but for whom the primary reason for being in hospital was non-Covid related. In practice this distinction is not always clear at the point of admission when the patient’s record has not been fully clinically coded. In light of this, trusts have been asked to provide this “for” and “with” split on a ‘best endeavours’ basis.

By the way I think this distinction is only available for the data that covers people in hospital, as opposed to daily admission figures.

 

[Supine]

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Supine you need to take elbows off ignore cos posting the same stuff 3 hours later is a fuckin ball ache.

 

[elbows]

London admissions published today look to have been around 300 again so it seems like I'm not going to see a new dramatic increase before the Christmas data break that would allow me to add much more to what I already said in recent days. It would be really nice if I end up being able to keep saying that once hospital data publishing for England resumes next Tuesday. Well there is still tomorrows data to come, but I'm hoping it doesnt show anything that requires me to comment.

I'll probably still look at todays cases by age for the London region this evening, but posting graphs of those every single day would be rather too tedious even for me. Maybe if some new trend stands out today I will draw attention to it later, but I'm looking forward to this mini-break from staring at too much data.

 

[teuchter]

I'll probably still look at todays cases by age for the London region this evening, but posting graphs of those every single day would be rather too tedious even for me.

They are certainly interesting to see every few days at least though.

 

[elbows]

They are certainly interesting to see every few days at least though.

I'm glad to hear that because I never got round to using a database & software to process that data, I have to do a load of manual copying and pasting in a spreadsheet and its rather tedious, especially as to get all the very latest data per age group I have to process both male and female cases and then combine them. I suspect other people do graphs of this sort of data on twitter or their own websites, but sometimes I dont like the way they group ages together or use rolling averages if I feel the need to see each days specific figure instead.

If I was full of energy then I'd probably try to do the per age group equivalent of the 'yellow todays daily published figures contribution to cases by specimen date' that you took an interest in with overall London numbers recently, but I'm not setup to make those graphs and I'm also knackered. Instead I might just try to describe what I've seen, or maybe I will pick a few age groups in particular and just post yesterdays and todays graph for those side by side. Depends what stories if any are in todays London data, I've no clue yet until I do the tedious processing.

 

[Supine]

Supine you need to take elbows off ignore cos posting the same stuff 3 hours later is a fuckin ball ache.

I can’t see it posted on this thread by anyone else ignored or otherwise and i posted it here because it relates to the discussion with teuchter about hospital case rates falling (or not).

You’re having a laugh if you think it’s possible to read all threads before posting a link!

 

[zahir]

I can’t see it posted on this thread by anyone else ignored or otherwise and i posted it here because it relates to the discussion with teuchter about hospital case rates falling (or not).

You’re having a laugh if you think it’s possible to read all threads before posting a link!

The post before yours.

 

[teuchter]

the discussion with teuchter about hospital case rates falling (or not).

Not that anyone probably cares, but to be clear, I've not tried to suggest that hospital rates are falling, just that it seems plausible that London reported cases have peaked or are at least levelling off somewhat. They certainly don't look to be rising at rapid exponential rates anymore.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I can’t see it posted on this thread by anyone else ignored or otherwise and i posted it here because it relates to the discussion with teuchter about hospital case rates falling (or not).

You’re having a laugh if you think it’s possible to read all threads before posting a link!

It's in the post just above yours.

 

[Supine]

The post before yours.

Oh yeah. I’ll just stop posting on the thread

 

[elbows]

Its good to see the latest estimates on severity, the UKHSA ones that the press have been anticipating for some days.

Omicron up to 70% less likely to need hospital care

However, a major report showed the protection from catching Covid started to wane 10 weeks after the booster.

www.bbc.co.uk

I just hope the headlines dont mess up the mood music to the extent that behaviours swing back too much in a direction that then goes on to make this wave much more horrible than it has to be. But then as I've been saying on the main UK thread, I also dont know whether, even if we avoid the sort of rapid hospitalisation rises that force government to act, we will also avoid the sort of continuous grinding pressure that can also force authorities to bring in new restrictions.

 

[2hats]

UKHSA Technical Briefing 33 now published.

Highlights the apparent onset of waning of third-dose booster efficacy to symptomatic infection after around 5-9 weeks post third dose, based on estimates from a test-negative case control design constructed from epidemiological data (vaccination rates in PCR-positive cases were compared to vaccination rates in those who tested negative during the period 27 Nov till 17 Dec).

(Insert standard warnings about sample size and behavioural biases. e2a: Control arm might have more prior infection immunity than supposed so overbiasing the reduction in vaccine efficacy.)

The report also highlights how many cases are now reinfections - a significant fraction and that is likely an undercount.


These factors could become important as omicron reaches into older/vulnerable cohorts (currently infections in under-50s dominate).

Thread.

 

[Supine]

UKHSA Technical Briefing 33 now published.

Highlights the apparent onset of waning of third-dose booster efficacy to symptomatic infection after around 5-9 weeks post third dose, based on estimates from a test-negative case control design constructed from epidemiological data (vaccination rates in PCR-positive cases were compared to vaccination rates in those who tested negative during the period 27 Nov till 17 Dec).
View attachment 302572
Insert standard warnings about sample size and behavioural biases.

The report also highlights how many cases are now reinfections - a significant fraction and that is likely an undercount.
View attachment 302575
This could become important as omicron reaches into older/vulnerable cohorts (currently infections in under-50s dominate).

Thread.

I’m not sure at what point the expectation came about that vaccines would stop infections. I had always presumed they would stop deaths and limit hospitalisation and that would be good enough. I guess people want the max even if it means people in other countries are still dieing from having no first or second shots.

 

[teuchter]

Thread.

She says it's not slowing down yet, but those graphs do suggest that it is slowing in London & SE and other regions too. Obviously it could look different again in a few more days.

 

[Supine]

She says it's not slowing down yet, but those graphs do suggest that it is slowing in London & SE and other regions too. Obviously it could look different again in a few more days.

How are you seeing that as slowing down? Is it something you want to see?

 

[teuchter]

How are you seeing that as slowing down? Is it something you want to see?

Of course it's something I want to see. But it's visible in the shape at the end of the graph(s) where the gradient flattens, and they only plot the numbers up to the 17th, and we have, elsewhere, numbers for the days after that which are entirely consistent with a slowing down, at least for London. I don't get why this seems such a controversial observation.