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Launches...

Launch and ascent were nominal, as was the majority of payload deploy, but the later demo stage on-orbit has hit a hitch. The APU shut down so the upper stage wasn't repressurised. This means no pointing to release the final payloads and no deorbit (and disposal) burn.

So it's fucked?
 
The mission
The mission was to test the launch vehicle and deploy multiple separate payloads. The launch vehicle worked. All the cubesats were deployed. Two re-entry bodies couldn't be deployed (actually, they elected not to release them in order to minimise any potential debris footprint). The upper stage can't immediately be disposed of. So partial success, or partial failure (glass half full/empty). A lot of mission profiles can be completed with the successful stages demonstrated today (eg direct ascents to geosynchronous orbit, lofts to Lagrange points, heliocentric trajectories). They need to demo the further upper stage restart (APU reliability) to meet a commitment to dispose of the upper stage at the end of every mission.
Venting from the upper stage. Conducted to reduce risk of debris formation and unintended accelerations that could modify the trajectory, and otherwise impact disposal. Vented gases were lit up in twilight (being at an altitude that placed them outside the Earth's shadow).
 
Right.

In other news I'm watching a space disaster movie called Gravity. It's all space stations and space suits - except Sandra Bullock who is in a vest top, natch, and recreating the role she played in Speed 20 years earlier.
 
Launch and ascent were nominal, as was the majority of payload deploy, but the later demo stage on-orbit has hit a hitch. The APU shut down so the upper stage wasn't repressurised. This means no pointing to release the final payloads and no deorbit (and disposal) burn.

Upper stage passivation was spotted from Central/E Europe.
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:hmm:
 
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Even space enthusiasts are thinking that Musk should dial back the optimism:



Summary

Elon Musk’s claim about sending humans to Mars by 2028 is overly optimistic; significant technological hurdles remain before space colonization can begin.

Highlights
🚀 Musk’s Mars Timeline: Elon Musk suggests human missions to Mars in 2028, but doubts arise about feasibility.
🌌 Pro Space Colonization: Many support the idea of humans on Mars, but concerns about practical challenges persist.
🌑 Moon as a Priority: Colonizing the Moon is more feasible due to proximity and lower gravity, opening the solar system.
⏳ Overoptimism Risks: Unrealistic timelines may harm public trust in space exploration and hinder funding.
⚙️ Technological Challenges: Key technologies like orbital refueling and crew-rated Starship need more development time.
🔬 Realistic Communication: Accurate timelines and clear communication are crucial to maintain public interest in space.
🌍 Benefits of Space: Space colonization has real benefits for Earth, but they need better communication to gain public support.
Key Insights
🚀 Skepticism of Musk’s Timeline: While Musk’s enthusiasm is commendable, the timeline for Mars human missions is likely unrealistic due to the immense challenges ahead. This skepticism is rooted in the history of space exploration, where timelines often shift.
🌌 Support for Space Colonization: There’s a strong public interest in space, but this enthusiasm can quickly fade if expectations are not managed. A balanced approach may help sustain interest and investment in space endeavors.
🌑 Moon vs. Mars: The Moon is a more practical first step for colonization, offering logistical advantages that could facilitate further exploration of Mars and beyond. This perspective highlights the importance of prioritizing near-term goals in space.
⏳ Consequences of Overoptimism: Overpromising can lead to disillusionment and reduced funding for future missions. Realistic optimism is essential to keep the public engaged and informed about space exploration.
⚙️ Technological Hurdles Ahead: Significant milestones remain, including developing reliable spacecraft and ensuring crew safety. These challenges necessitate careful planning and rigorous testing before human missions can commence.
🔬 Effective Communication Strategy: Clear messaging about space exploration timelines and technologies can help bridge the gap between public expectations and reality, fostering a more informed and supportive audience.
🌍 Understanding Space’s Benefits: The benefits of space colonization extend beyond exploration; they include advancements in technology and resources that can enhance life on Earth. This understanding is crucial for gaining long-term support for space initiatives.

The main thrust of the video is that over-optimistic projections inevitably lead to broken promises and will result in reduced public trust in space ventures, and arguably this has already happened. I know SpaceX is one of those companies where they have systems in place to keep His Muskiness distracted and out of the hair of the people doing the actual work, but what proportion of the general public is actually aware of this, rather than just hearing Musk's ludicrous proclamations?
 
Apartheid Clyde will definitely get human to Mars.

Right after he delivers Full Self Driving on all those Teslas.

Like he promised they could do in, er..... 2016.
 
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