Ice cap disappearing 30 years ahead of schedule

[ferrelhadley]

Have to be logged in to see image http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=92.0;attach=2127;image

fixed?

 

[laptop]

fixed?

Fixed, ta.

Are there volume estimates yet?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Fixed, ta.

Are there volume estimates yet?

last update was June 5

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

This is the anomaly

This is the estimated mean volume.

These are only modeled results not measurements. They come in from the new European Cryosat about once a season.

 

[laptop]

last update was June 5

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

This is the anomaly

Those last three years look disturbingly like a break to a new trend, don't they? Fingers crossed for the next 4 months...

 

[ferrelhadley]

 

[Dr Jon]

more here:
http://www.youtube.com/user/yaleclimateforum

 

[rover07]

more here:
http://www.youtube.com/user/yaleclimateforum

Meh, who cares? Let it burn.

 

[Dr Jon]

Meh, who cares? Let it burn.

Is that you, Clarkson?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Meh, who cares?

Me.

And a couple of hundred million people in Bangladesh.

 

[ferrelhadley]

 

[Dr Jon]

and also:

link

 

[MikeMcc]

I do wish there was a mechanism to impose fines against reporters that blatently print outragous crap like David Rose does.

 

[Dr Jon]

I do wish there was a mechanism to impose fines against public stoning of reporters that blatantly print outrageous crap like David Rose does.

corrected for you


ETA

By all means an impressive presentation of the Arctic ice disaster. But, alas, it has only some 55,000 views on Youtube - that is nearly nothing.

At the same time, the "Daily Mirror" and the "Telegraph" are aggressively proclaiming, once more, that sea ice is "recovering" (see here for a discussion of what is really happening).

So, while the planet's ice keeps melting, we are swamped by lies that fill the available media space. How are we going to let the truth out?

link

 

[bi0boy]

We're at the 2009 level in terms of sea ice area now.

Not sure what happened in July to give such a plateau - any unusual weather events at that time? (days 204-215)

 

[ferrelhadley]

Arctic on course for ice-free summer 'within decades', scientists say

 

[Dr Jon]

Arctic on course for ice-free summer 'within decades', scientists say

... or now ?
Is the North Pole now ice-free?

ETA
No, it was still icy on Wednesday:

All the melt-water seen in July has re-frozen (or drained away ?? - check the depth gauge in the foreground)

 

[Crispy]

Bit of a heat wave in the Arctic right now

Someone tell the ice what season it's supposed to be

 

[bi0boy]

I saw that yesterday on twitter - is it genuine?

I noticed the Cryosphere Today went pear-shaped earlier this year when the satellite they get data from went down - maybe this is something similar?

 

[Crispy]

I saw that yesterday on twitter - is it genuine?

I noticed the Cryosphere Today went pear-shaped earlier this year when the satellite they get data from went down - maybe this is something similar?

The Japanese source for that graph uses multiple sources, and I see no trace of the weird flatline since April, so no I don't think there's anything fishy going on. The temperature data is likewiise compiled from multiple sources.

The North Pole is an insane 36 degrees warmer than normal as winter descends

 

[2hats]

I saw that yesterday on twitter - is it genuine?

It's there in the GFS model (seeded with real data from satellite+ship+buoy, of course) too.

2m temperature anomaly:

Sea surface temperature anomaly:

Sea ice/snow extent compared to the CFSR 1979-2000 baseline extent (cyan line):

 

[ferrelhadley]

Both poles are at record low sea ice coverage for this time of year, leading to a very significant anomaly in the global total sea ice.

That said while the weak la Nina is visible across the Pacific equator, the really big event in the oceans seems to be the emergence of a large cold blob in the North Pacific. Thats very likely to affect the northern polar jetstream, i.e. our weather.

 

[2hats]

Latest research appears to confirm suspicions that Antarctic ice sheets are melting from the inside, not just at the edges:

An ice sheet in West Antarctica is breaking from the inside out. The significant new findings published yesterday in Geophysical Research Letters show that the ocean is melting the interior of the Pine Island Glacier, which is about the size of Texas. The crack seems to be accelerating, said Ian Howat, associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State University and the study’s lead author. The findings are the first confirmation of something glaciologists have long suspected was happening, he said. “It’s showing a new weakness in the ice shelf, and it’s showing the weakness may be extending far up the glacier,” he said. “That’s the alarming thing from our standpoint.”

Higher ocean temperatures are causing the ice to shrink at an accelerating rate, and it’s eroding the ice fringing the continent. That, in turn, opens the ice sheet to further contact with warmer ocean water and increases the amount of ice running into the ocean, the researchers found. “More importantly, it gives us a mechanism for even faster retreat in the future. Before, we used to have a slow retreat at the edges of the ice shelf,” Howat said. "The ocean had to nibble away at it on the edges. This allows the ice shelf to break apart way further inland from the inside out."

This latest retreat is particularly noteworthy because it’s farther inland than anything scientists have previously observed, he said. It also shows that the region could be more vulnerable than previously thought. Howat said the rift is further evidence that it’s not a matter of if, but when the larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt. It adds “to the probability that we may see significant collapse of West Antarctica in our lifetimes,” he said.

Source: Scientific American; DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071360

 

[bi0boy]

In Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet happens in 2127 leading to a rapid 6 metre sea level rise, but they had fusion power by 2020. I always thought that was the wrong way round.

 

[Pickman's model]

In Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet happens in 2127 leading to a rapid 6 metre sea level rise, but they had fusion power by 2020. I always thought that was the wrong way round.

it's fiction, kim's allowed to say anything at all

 

[2hats]

Latest NSIDC figures from satellite observations indicate that Antarctic sea ice extent peaked early in August this year and has been declining very rapidly since, leading to a record low last month (1 million sq km below the previous record low):

November air temperature is several degrees above average too:

Along with the figures for the Arctic, that's an extent of sea ice greater than the area of India that's missing (compared to the 1981-2010 average):

"There are some really crazy things going on," said Mark Serreze, director of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado.
He said the twin record lows might be "blind dumb chance". But the worry was that "Antarctica is the sleeping elephant that is beginning to stir."

Anders Levermann, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said the low polar sea ice pointed to man-made warming. "It's an extraordinary departure from the norm," he said.

Global 2 metre temperature anomaly:

And now, a short film.

 

[Pickman's model]

Cheery stuff

 

[bluescreen]

More cheery stuff:

 

[MikeMcc]

In Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet happens in 2127 leading to a rapid 6 metre sea level rise, but they had fusion power by 2020. I always thought that was the wrong way round.

Aye, but in the book that was in part due to super-volcanic eruption under the ice sheet.

 

[Crispy]

Aye, but in the book that was in part due to super-volcanic eruption under the ice sheet.

So it took a week or so rather than decades, for dramatic effect. Still, the end result would be the same

 

[MikeMcc]

So it took a week or so rather than decades, for dramatic effect. Still, the end result would be the same

I'm just hoping that this years global ice measurements aren't indicative of a new trend. The Sea Ice Area graph that FerrelHadley posted in post #621 is truly scary. It is so far out of the 'norm' it's crazy. The Antarctic Ice Area is presently 1.5 to 2 million sq km less than 'normal' for this time of year. This means that the oceans are absorbing far more energy in that area due to the albedo change with subsequent knock on effects for next year.

(ETA - a good source at the moment for ice data is here: https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234)

Despite the small steps gained in Paris and Marrakesh I'm quite despondent about the proposed trump cabinet (or whatever it's called in the US), too many denier, oil loving billionaires and fossil-fuel mouth-pieces going into the mix, and no effective counter in the senate to challenge the choices. The next four years are going to be nightmarish. Thankfully I doubt that the orange buffoon will be re-elected, I think people will see that he doesn't stand for anything that he said in the run up to the election. He will just line his own pockets and those of his mates and to hell with everybody else. Mind you my political thoughts on this could well be screwed, I didn't think the US electorate would be daft enough to elect him. Hillary was an arsehole, but Trump is an ill-educated, pampered, ill-tempered idiot.