Ice cap disappearing 30 years ahead of schedule

[Dr Jon]

Climate-Change Summary And Update

 

[ferrelhadley]

The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume — to one fifth of its level in 1980.

 

[Dr Jon]

The world is hottest it has been since the end of the ice age - and the temperature's still rising

We are heading for somewhere that is far off from anything we have seen in the past 10,000 years – it’s through the roof. In my mind, we are heading for a different planet to the one that we have been used to

Another record-breaking, scorching summer this year???

 

[ferrelhadley]

Despite being at maximum ice extent an unusual (as in unseen before) break up of ice in the arctic.

These cracks are hundreds and thousands of miles long.

 

[laptop]

Despite being at maximum ice extent an unusual (as in unseen before) break up of ice in the arctic.

These cracks are hundreds and thousands of miles long.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

I suggest swimming lessons for those who don't already know how.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Earth Under Water

 

[laptop]

Despite being at maximum ice extent an unusual (as in unseen before) break up of ice in the arctic.

Is labelled as a NOAA video, but I haven't yet managed to find the report on noaa.gov... help?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Is labelled as a NOAA video, but I haven't yet managed to find the report on noaa.gov... help?

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/

 

[ferrelhadley]

What about those big high pressure areas causing all that thin ice to crack and get caught up in the Beaufort Gyre? Not only have they been spurring on the spectacular cracking event of recent weeks, they are also helping winter to keep parts of the US and Europe in its icy grip. The highs are tied to a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) that has effectively made the Polar Vortex collapse relatively early, after it was already considerably weakened by a SSW in January. The Polar Vortex normally keeps cold air from spilling out all over the Northern Hemisphere. As Andrew Freedman wrote on Climate Central a couple of days ago:

The weather map across the Northern Hemisphere features a sprawling and unusually strong area of High pressure over Greenland that is serving as an atmospheric stop sign, slowing weather systems as they move from west to east, and allowing storms to deepen off the eastern seaboard and tap into more cold air than they otherwise might have.​

That is not your typical fair weather area of High pressure, either. Some computer models have been projecting that, sometime during the next couple of days, the Greenland High could come close to setting the mark for the highest atmospheric pressure ever recorded.​

The blocking pattern has helped direct cold air into the lower 48 states as well as parts of Europe, while the Arctic has been experiencing dramatically warmer-than-average conditions, particularly along the west coast of Greenland and in northeastern Canada. Blocking patterns are often associated with extreme weather events, from heat waves like the one that occurred last March, to historic cold air outbreaks and blizzards.​

Another atmospheric blocking event on a large scale. What a coincidence. Below there's a composite image of the two recent high pressure areas, the extremely negative Arctic Oscillation Index and temperature anomalies for the Arctic since January 1st:

http://skepticalscience.com/arctic-freezing-season-ends-with-a-loud-crack.html#.UU4F5uuyI3M.twitter

 

[Dr Jon]

 

[Pingu]

I suggest swimming lessons for those who don't already know how.

the artic ice melting is of less concern than if the Antarctic goes in the who is the best swimmer stakes tbh

 

[Crispy]

Not just plain-old melting either, but this sort of thing:
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/3992-pine-island-retreat-history.html

 

[ferrelhadley]

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/




Far, far too short term to draw any conclusions from. But, blimey, lets all hope its a blip.

 

[Dr Jon]

I spotted the attached slide in a recent presentation by Jennifer Francis.
CO2 at its highest concentration in over 650,000 years and the temperature hasn't caught up yet. That looks like your blip...

 

[ferrelhadley]

That looks like your blip...

That point has been well known since the late 80s (actually late 80s for about 400 000 years, Epica C got us back to 800 000 in the late 90s).

Changes in radiative forcing from increasing CO2 take decades to fully affect the global temperature (its usually given at about 20 years for the mixing layer of the ocean).

This is a much more short term blip. Partially a recovery from the 2011 la Nina, la Nica mean much more warm water pushed up against the western edge of the worlds oceans and lots of extra rain on the continents (borne out by some satellite gravity measurements). Part of this bump was the draining of those waters back into the oceans (think Brisbane Jan 2011). But some of it will have to be from another source. Perhaps the Greenland ice sheet, not that short couple of day melt reported in the press last year. Jason Box reckons strongly that was an albedo driven event caused by the huge US wildfires. Although he has also been pointing very strongly to increasing albedo in the Greenland ice sheet as melting snow is leaving residue across the sheet.

I am very cautious about ascribing a definite cause to this... but I do have a list of suspicions.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Visualisation of volume loss.

 

[elbows]

IEA report 'Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013' report makes for grim but unsurprising reading.

http://www.iea.org/publications/TCEP_web.pdf

Stark messages emerge: progress has not been fast enough; large market failures are preventing clean energy solutions from being taken up; considerable energy-efficiency potential remains untapped; policies need to better address the energy system as a whole; and energy-related research, development and demonstration need to accelerate.

The report also introduces a new IEA index, tracking the carbon intensity of energy supply since 1970, that shows no recent improvement and underscores the need for more concerted effort.

Alongside these grim conclusions there is positive news. In 2012, sales of hybrid electric vehicles passed the 1 million mark. Solar photovoltaic systems were being installed at a record pace. The costs of most clean energy technologies fell more rapidly than anticipated.

The report provides specific recommendations to governments on how to scale up deployment of these key technologies.

 

[Dr Jon]

Emergency Climate Meeting: White House Officials Told Arctic Ocean Could Be Ice-Free Within Two Years

 

[ferrelhadley]

Two years is very very unlikely. 2030? Better than even.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Arctic Ocean 'acidifying rapidly

The Arctic seas are being made rapidly more acidic by carbon-dioxide emissions, according to a new report.
Scientists from Norway's Center for International Climate and Environmental Research monitored widespread changes in ocean chemistry in the region.
They say even if CO2 emissions stopped now, it would take tens of thousands of years for Arctic Ocean chemistry to revert to pre-industrial levels.
Many creatures, including commercially valuable fish, could be affected.
They forecast major changes in the marine ecosystem, but say there is huge uncertainty over what those changes will be.
It is well know that CO2 warms the planet, but less well-known that it also makes the alkaline seas more acidic when its absorbed from the air.

 

[ferrelhadley]

The sleeping giants awakens.

http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/glacier_changes_ne_greenland-114582

North Greenland glaciers begin to accelerate. These are the ones in the coldest regions of Greenland but they are outlet glaciers, like Jacobshaven. That is they are gaps in the wall of hills and mountains around the edge of Greenland where the 3km thick ice sheets squeezes out its ice from.

We are unlikely to see a new record in 2013 for sea ice extent, but unlikely is far from "will not". However the huge loses we have seen are now starting to really affect the giant outlet glaciers in the NE Greenland. Famously Petermann has become more active and the ice shelf is breaking up bu this blog post by someone I respect is detailing other outlet glaciers starting to move.



Mid June and we have already exceeded the average rate of melt in Greenland (it maxes out in late July.)
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

And sea level rise is still showing that short term acceleration to 1cm per year.

Let me be blunt.

Shit is getting real.

 

[Dr Jon]

Open Water Visible at North Pole Camera 1, Cracks Visible at Camera 2

Last week, North Pole Camera 1 began to record visual images of cracks on the surface of sea ice. Now, just one week later, open water is visible in the same location. Meanwhile, cracks are beginning to show up in the vicinity of North Pole Camera 2

 

[MikeMcc]

The sleeping giants awakens.

http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/glacier_changes_ne_greenland-114582

North Greenland glaciers begin to accelerate. These are the ones in the coldest regions of Greenland but they are outlet glaciers, like Jacobshaven. That is they are gaps in the wall of hills and mountains around the edge of Greenland where the 3km thick ice sheets squeezes out its ice from.

We are unlikely to see a new record in 2013 for sea ice extent, but unlikely is far from "will not". However the huge loses we have seen are now starting to really affect the giant outlet glaciers in the NE Greenland. Famously Petermann has become more active and the ice shelf is breaking up bu this blog post by someone I respect is detailing other outlet glaciers starting to move.



Mid June and we have already exceeded the average rate of melt in Greenland (it maxes out in late July.)
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

And sea level rise is still showing that short term acceleration to 1cm per year.

Let me be blunt.

Shit is getting real.

Wonder if we'll see another major surface melt like last years?

 

[Dr Jon]

!

 

[MikeMcc]

Speak of the devil, research published linking the melt to jet-stream changes. The same conditions are still present this year.

http://www.shef.ac.uk/news/nr/jet-stream-greenland-ice-sheet-melt-1.280360

 

[Dr Jon]

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013

My prediction above was based on understanding of the inter-related Artic/climatic system obtained through in-depth research conducted as part of my Ph.D. studies on abrupt climate change, and through my academic work as part-time professor in climatology/meteorology at the University of Ottawa.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013

Colour me skeptical.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Sea ice extent is pretty much lagging last year. But the thickness difference is stark. 8 very interesting weeks coming up.

 

[laptop]

Have to be logged in to see image http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=92.0;attach=2127;image