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House price crash

That is what has happened in the past, but it may not happen this time. You can get your interest paid by social security, remember, and at the moment at least, lenders are more than willing to accommodate such changes in circumstances – it's not in their interests to repossess.

that is a myth - you can get it paid for a certain amount of time by the nash AND with a limit on how much they will pay, but they won't just pay it until you get a job.
 
that is a myth - you can get it paid for a certain amount of time by the nash AND with a limit on how much they will pay, but they won't just pay it until you get a job.

Limit is the interest, they won't pay the capital for you. Same rules as HB, so they will pay it until you get a job. Well, you can for now.
 
Repossessions peaked last at 1991. At that time, interest rates were about 12%. Mortgage rates were probably more like 15%. Now they are typically under 4%. Basically, you were paying four times as much in interest for every £1 borrowed in 1991 compared with 2010. It gives home-owners a lot more slack.
 
Yes, and for now at least, all mortgage lenders will agree to switching to interest only for the duration of your unemployment. As I said, it is not in their interests to repossess.
 
Limit is the interest, they won't pay the capital for you. Same rules as HB, so they will pay it until you get a job. Well, you can for now.

if you got your dole stopped for any reason i think they stop the MI payments too though, i may be wrong?
And there IS a limit on what the MI payments are, or at least there was?
 
5 months later and people are still predicting it 'anytime soon'.

Honestly how soon is soon?
from todays paper
House prices fall record 3.6%
Halifax reveals biggest monthly drop in 27 years as number of houses for sale increases and demand dampens
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/oct/07/house-prices-fall-record-halifax
new 'emergency' budget on 20th october. we're just going over the top of the rollercoaster - what lies instore i dread to think
 
from todays paper

new 'emergency' budget on 20th october. we're just going over the top of the rollercoaster - what lies instore i dread to think

But although the bank described the sharp fall as an "intake of breath" moment, it is urging homeowners not to panic about an impending house price crash, saying that the quarterly figures are a much better measure of the underlying trend. Although quarterly figures are also dropping, the decline is less severe at -0.9% for the three months to the end of September, down from -0.4% at the end of August.

Martin Ellis, housing economist for the Halifax, said: "Looking at quarterly figures … this rate of decline is significantly slower than the quarterly changes of between -5% and -6% that were seen in the second half of 2008. It is therefore far too early to conclude that September's monthly 3.6% fall is the beginning of a sustained period of declining house prices."
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Also planning consent takes so long to get, espcially when it comes to the whole 'garden' developement side of things, that its putting builders off and so supply still remains very low.

Planning has existed since 1947. It has nothing to do with this - if it did builders would have given up a long time ago. There are thousands of valid major housing development planning consents up and down the country not being implemented.

Also, the Tories want to ban garden ground development.
 
Mass unemployment will obviously have an impact on house prices. Mere anticipation of it will, as will anticipation of a house price crash. If you're a first time buyer you're likely to fear redundency right now. If you also expect house prices to fall, why buy now? There's no incentive in the short to medium term.
 
Also, I can tell you first-hand that upwards pressures on rents haven't been so great for years,
This.
Was looking to sell up in the summer and go renting. 4 offers on my gaff but the buyers can't sell, meanwhile (Central London) where "what we want, where we want" rents have gone from £550 to £625 p/w.
 
.
Originally Posted by ska invita
from todays paper
[biggest fall in house prices in sept 10 since records began]
new 'emergency' budget on 20th october. we're just going over the top of the rollercoaster - what lies instore i dread to think
But although the bank described the sharp fall as an "intake of breath" moment, it is urging homeowners not to panic about an impending house price crash, saying that the quarterly figures are a much better measure of the underlying trend. Although quarterly figures are also dropping, the decline is less severe at -0.9% for the three months to the end of September, down from -0.4% at the end of August.

Martin Ellis, housing economist for the Halifax, said: "Looking at quarterly figures … this rate of decline is significantly slower than the quarterly changes of between -5% and -6% that were seen in the second half of 2008. It is therefore far too early to conclude that September's monthly 3.6% fall is the beginning of a sustained period of declining house prices."

I take it your saying , read the rest of the article and its not so bad. i disagree. Halifax cant lie about the figures, and the figures speak for themselves. A housing crash can happen out of pure consumer confidence and would be a disaster for the a number of people with vested interests - Halifax included. What follows in the article is a lot of calm words and prayers from Halifax to try and talk down any panic. Septembers fall is because people are increasingly waking up to the cuts agenda. October 20th looms...

The IMF article i posted is the same - the IMF are worried about a price crash and feel the market is over valued - then rather than spook everyone they go on to say its not too bad really. From what i can see markets depend so much on mood music, inuendo and nuance in little statements here and there, people like the Halifax and the IMF have a responsibility to try and sound upbeat, even when the prognosis is bad.

*Toblerone3, you asked why do i think doomsday - i think i said it earlier - because the extent of the cuts that will kick in destroying lots of public sector job in the short term, which will knock on to the wider economy etc and will burst the housing bubble that has been inflating since 1995.

Once that bubble bursts theres no telling how far it will deflate. In the US the housing market has lost 50% in many places - and they are still far from out of the woods - double dip still looms for them. The landlord who owns the house next to me has just come back from the US and has been buying up flats for next to nothing. (he told me about the 50% fall in Miami where he was buying).

There are still lots of unknown failures in the economic system out there - in europe and in the usa - my hunch is that the system is so fragile, and there is such a rough ride ahead that some of the wheels will come off - the UK housing bubble would be the first thing to pop i reckon. so yeah, doomsday! the end might be nigh! etc. <i dont know this for fact, but all the signs are there
 
If prices do crash the housing market will all but ceasing to exist - Only people forced to sell will sell, everyone else will sit it out.
 
The rental market is so strong atm and is likely to get stronger I suspect. That's what is going to keep the property market from crashing big. Rich fuckers buying up properties to rent to all those unable to buy... be it because of house prices, unemployment or the bite of Tory cuts.
 
The thing about low interest rates, too, is that if you're rich enough to have a few hundred thou' knocking about then you're going to get fuck-all for it in the bank. But you could buy a few flats with 50% deposits and take a profit after interest of £500+ per month. That makes property a pretty attractive investment right now for the cash-rich.
 
The rental market is so strong atm and is likely to get stronger I suspect. That's what is going to keep the property market from crashing big. Rich fuckers buying up properties to rent to all those unable to buy... be it because of house prices, unemployment or the bite of Tory cuts.

can't get stronger when no one has a job and people are having their benefits cut. Imagine if you are a landlord - paranoid and suspicious of the govts policies... you will surely be tempted to sell without much chance of a reliable tenant who will be able to pay the rent
 
can't get stronger when no one has a job and people are having their benefits cut. Imagine if you are a landlord - paranoid and suspicious of the govts policies... you will surely be tempted to sell without much chance of a reliable tenant who will be able to pay the rent

That's a very big national story you're making up out of very small personal details, trev. As I said, you're talking about a tiny fraction of the total housing market.
 
That's a very big national story you're making up out of very small personal details, trev. As I said, you're talking about a tiny fraction of the total housing market.

what like the bit that relies on people having a job or the bit that relies on people having full benefits and KEEPING them? When you've seen someone with cancer and one leg being sent a DLA update form i wouldn't have much confidence if i were a landlord
 
what like the bit that relies on people having a job or the bit that relies on people having full benefits and KEEPING them? When you've seen someone with cancer and one leg being sent a DLA update form i wouldn't have much confidence if i were a landlord

What percentage of households do you think are going to have no income? If three million are unemployed out of 40 million working-age adults? What percentage of current housing benefit recipients are going to find that their HB is no longer sufficient to pay the rent? There are about 20 million households in the UK -- how many of those do you think are going to be impacted by this?
 
What percentage of households do you think are going to have no income? If three million are unemployed out of 40 million working-age adults? What percentage of current housing benefit recipients are going to find that their HB is no longer sufficient to pay the rent? There are about 20 million households in the UK -- how many of those do you think are going to be impacted by this?

a lot more than before the Tories got in
 
The thing about low interest rates, too, is that if you're rich enough to have a few hundred thou' knocking about then you're going to get fuck-all for it in the bank. But you could buy a few flats with 50% deposits and take a profit after interest of £500+ per month. That makes property a pretty attractive investment right now for the cash-rich.

How many of those purchases are going to be made from auction after re-possessions rather than through estate agent sales? As has been said on this thread before banks are going to be willing to transfer mortgages to interest only which can be paid by people who qualify for benefit which will cut the number of re-possessions but how many cash rich people are there in the market? I still see the market shrinking as only the desperate will sell.

The other effect will be a lack of new housing stock, both new builds and derelict property being refurbed.
 
At the end of the day, we've been hearing crash-crash-crash for years now. It's imminent, the naysayers keep insisting. And yet prices are still 10-20% higher than they were in 2005-2006, despite having just gone through the biggest credit crisis in living memory. As liquidity slowly drips back into the market, I can't see why now the big hit is going to come.

Most likely, I think, is the prediction given by current derivative swaps, which I posted above. I.e. basically no growth for a few years, followed by a very slow and steady ratchetting up of inflation as we start to hit the back half of 2012.

It's all guesswork though, of course. I wouldn't claim otherwise. But I'm not the one insisting that prices are definitely going to suddenly drop by 20% or something!
 
what like the bit that relies on people having a job or the bit that relies on people having full benefits and KEEPING them? When you've seen someone with cancer and one leg being sent a DLA update form i wouldn't have much confidence if i were a landlord

Housing benefit is granted by local authorities and is based on local market value. How can they cut a benefit so that it wouldn't allow anyone to rent a house?
 
Housing benefit is granted by local authorities and is based on local market value. How can they cut a benefit so that it wouldn't allow anyone to rent a house?

they usually say the house someone is renting isn't worth the money, say for example the landlord wants £100 a week, it's very unlikely the council would say "yes no problem" - they would more than likely say "nah it's only worth £85"
 
they usually say the house someone is renting isn't worth the money, say for example the landlord wants £100 a week, it's very unlikely the council would say "yes no problem" - they would more than likely say "nah it's only worth £85"

That wasn't the way it worked with my council when i rented to DSS. There was a set market rate per room but before they would pay they would check that the property was up to scratch.

I did get less than market value but thats only cause I was renting a 4 bedroom property to a family with 2 children and they wouldn't pay for the extra unnessesary room.

Aparrently if the kids had been of the same sex the council would have insisted on paying for only 2 bedrooms not three as the kids would have been expected to share a room as far as they were concerned.
 
I'm sure there's the usual caveats about the danger of taking one figure in isolation...trends, and all that....but... minus 2.9% MoM...sounds interesting?

upload_2019-2-7_9-17-55.png

Particularly when the FT leads with...

upload_2019-2-7_9-20-22.png
 
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