FARC vs Colombian State: it's over, over there

[Idris2002]

So this is how one of the longest conflicts in world ends: not with the revolutionary forces taking the state, but with a whimper.

The longest-running war in the world comes to an end today


"The Colombian conflict started as a rural uprising in the 1960s.

It has drawn in various leftist rebel groups, right-wing paramilitaries and drug gangs over the decades.

The violence has left 260,000 people dead, 45,000 missing and nearly seven million displaced, according to official figures.

Human rights groups say atrocities have been committed on all sides. Many families are still searching for missing loved ones.

The accord covers “the laying-down of arms, security guarantees and the fight against the criminal organizations” accused of fueling the conflict, the statement said."

My guess is that the Colombian left, both those who never took up the gun, and those who did, will end up being marginalized by this.

 

[mather]

My guess is that the Colombian left, both those who never took up the gun, and those who did, will end up being marginalized by this.

Why?

It was obvious from forty plus years of conflict that FARC were never going to win through their guerrilla struggle so I can understand why they have considered going for the political route instead.

 

[phildwyer]

It was obvious from forty plus years of conflict that FARC were never going to win through their guerrilla struggle so I can understand why they have considered going for the political route instead.

It depends what you mean by "win." They haven't been seeking to seize state power for decades now.

 

[CNT36]

After a half-century of combat that spilled blood across this South American nation, Colombians have embarked on a new, but difficult path to settle their political differences with the signing of a historic peace accord between the government and leftist rebels.

The first test after Monday’s signing is a weekend referendum in which voters are being asked to ratify or reject the deal. If it passes, as expected, Colombia will move on to the thornier and still uncertain task of reconciliation.

President Juan Manuel Santos and Rodrigo Londono, top commander of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, formally signed the agreement before a crowd of 2,500 foreign dignitaries and special guests, including U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

Colombia embarks on path to peace with historic accord

 

[CyberRose]

Colombia's peace vote campaign turns violent: 13 assassinated since ceasefire

This is in addition to all the leftist and trade unionist people assassinated in "ordinary" elections over the last year (I'll try find info later on)

Now the former FARC members have to rely on the military to protect them...

 

[CyberRose]

The peace deal with the FARC has been rejected in the referendum by a narrow margin of just 50.24% (with potentially lots of people in costal areas likely to have voted 'yes' unable to vote because of Hurricane Matthew)

Not sure anyone has any idea what will happen now (or even planned for what would happen if the deal was rejected)

 

[CNT36]

The peace deal with the FARC has been rejected in the referendum by a narrow margin of just 50.24% (with potentially lots of people in costal areas likely to have voted 'yes' unable to vote because of Hurricane Matthew)

Not sure anyone has any idea what will happen now (or even planned for what would happen if the deal was rejected)

Just came to post about it. Story here.

 

[Manter]

What the fuck happened there then? Anyone know why so many people voted for war?

 

[Riklet]

Lots of Colombians are right wing, the media is right wing, the ruling class, middle classes and the state are right wing... education is right wing etc etc

Reminds me of a memorable conversation with a Bogota taxi driving asking him about the violence and the fact that 200,000 had been killed, many by death squads, the army, etc etc. I know taxi drivers are a breed unto themselves, but his response of "well, we clearly didn't kill enough of them then, did we" did kinda shock me.

Depressing result. I was expecting a clear "yes" result, I thought Colombians were sick of this whole mess. Many of my Colombian friends will be very disappointed.

 

[CyberRose]

What the fuck happened there then? Anyone know why so many people voted for war?

Not sure anyone voted for war. The arguments against the deal that people have is the amnesty for war crimes. Both the FARC and Government people responsible for war crimes would be spared jail if they admit what they did. That has sat uneasy with a lot of people.

There's also the political dimension that this referendum, like many others, just turns into a vote between people's preferred party. Santos (the current president) has an approval rating of just 21% (i.e. he's not that popular) so the opposition, led by ex-president Uribe (who was terrified he was going to jail in the result of a yes vote) has seen this as an opportunity to regain political power in the country (and he may well have succeded).

Both campaigns have been based on fear - vote yes otherwise we'll return to the violence of the past, vote no otherwise we'll have Castrochavismo in Colombia.

 

[CyberRose]

Lots of Colombians are right wing, the media is right wing, the ruling class, middle classes and the state are right wing... education is right wing etc etc

Which is why FARC existed in the first place, however, pretty much all the media (except maybe one TV station) supported the peace deal

 

[Yossarian]

I've seen a lot of places calling this vote "Colombia's Brexit," which doesn't seem like a great comparison unless there's been a long-running war with Luxembourgian guerillas that I don't know about.

 

[likesfish]

I think this trump being elected and everything else thats mindnumbingly stupid will be compared with brexit

 

[Idris2002]

Which is why FARC existed in the first place, however, pretty much all the media (except maybe one TV station) supported the peace deal

Yeah, well Farc ain't gonna exist for much longer, nor will its members.

Literally so, in the latter case. Maybe this was the plan all along.

 

[CyberRose]

I've seen a lot of places calling this vote "Colombia's Brexit," which doesn't seem like a great comparison unless there's been a long-running war with Luxembourgian guerillas that I don't know about.

Well, the subject of the question and the situation is far removed from Brexit, tho there are a few similarities in the campaigns and how people voted.

In Brexit a lot of people used the vote as a protest against Cameron (who said vote remain), I suspect a lot of people did the same with Santos (who said vote yes). There also may have been an anti-establishment sentiment with most saying vote 'yes'. Then both campaigns were obviously full of lies and bullshit, trying to scare voters to vote a certain way.

 

[CyberRose]

Yeah, well Farc ain't gonna exist for much longer, nor will its members.

Literally so, in the latter case. Maybe this was the plan all along.

I had wondered about that actually...get the FARC to get used to the idea their members will be reintegrated into normal society over the course of 4 years then after a failed peace vote what are they gonna do? They're already depleted in strength and have begun to disarm and all their members are excited about having a normal life (with the exception of the First Front who bombed a polling station yesterday - which, if you were on the fence before you voted, may have had an effect on the vote). They'll be a lot easier to target now than before...

 

[CyberRose]

Antioquia department (capital Medellín) seems to have swung it for the no-campaign (about 65% voted no) - this is Uribe's powerbase and area of major influence...and interpret "influence" however you want considering he is suspected to have been the head of the paramilitary forces...

http://colombiareports.com/head-colombias-paramilitaries-former-auc-leader-ex-president-uribe/

 

[Idris2002]

What's the agrarian question like in Colombia these days? Is there still a large peasant population that might support a FARC-Nueva, or has there been heavy rural-urban migration that has depleted that possible reservoir of supporters?

 

[1%er]

Only around 13 million people bothered to go and vote and the vast majority of them were from urban areas (but that is where the vast majority of people now live, less than 25% live in rural areas nowadays), turnout in rural areas where the FARC has the majority of its support was very low. there were 33 million who were registered to vote at the last presidential election in 2014, but then iirc less that 40% bothered to vote in the last congressional elections, this vote had an even lower turnout.

This result has come as a shock to both sides, all the polls prior to the vote showed a majority in favor of the deal, some polls indicated a 20% win for the YES camp. In just plain number less than 60,000 vote decided the outcome. It is being reported that both sides will meet to discuss the result in Cuba on Tuesday.

Depending on who you believe the outcome is for different reasons;
The "NO" camp say they won because the people didn't want to see the FARC rebels go unpunished* and be able to take up political seats in the Congress. [*But this isn't as clear cut as it seems, the agreement didn't offer a blanket amnesty to FARC members, those involved in rape, mass-murder and torture would have had to face justice throught the court system and also FARC would have had to pay compensation to its victims]
The "YES" camp say they lost because President Santos is so unpopular and the public have been scared by the human rights violations by successive governments over many decades.

The big problem that no-one was prepared to address is, what would have happen to the more than 7,000 FARC fighters and the thousands of people who lived by supplying/supporting them? What happened when the right wing armed Militias who were fighting the FARC on behalf of the Colombian government and the USA were disbanded was they they started or joined armed street gangs in urban areas, these gangs supplied guns, drugs and kill well over 15,000 innocent people each year, adding to the gangs numbers isn't really going to help the situation.

 

[Idris2002]

A piece in The Nation - the ceasefire will hold, disarmament of the FARC has begun and will continue, and as far as the referendum result is concerned, some are pointing the finger at Human Rights Watch and their local man:

Did Human Rights Watch Sabotage Colombia’s Peace Agreement?

 

[Idris2002]

Breakdown of the vote by region, and what that means about the outcome:

Most Affected Colombians Voted for Peace, Who Voted 'No'?

 

[Pickman's model]

I had wondered about that actually...get the FARC to get used to the idea their members will be reintegrated into normal society over the course of 4 years then after a failed peace vote what are they gonna do? They're already depleted in strength and have begun to disarm and all their members are excited about having a normal life (with the exception of the First Front who bombed a polling station yesterday - which, if you were on the fence before you voted, may have had an effect on the vote). They'll be a lot easier to target now than before...

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/OEWatch/Current/current.pdf

 

[CyberRose]

The President says the ceasefire will end on October 31st

 

[CyberRose]

What's the agrarian question like in Colombia these days? Is there still a large peasant population that might support a FARC-Nueva, or has there been heavy rural-urban migration that has depleted that possible reservoir of supporters?

I have absolutely no idea unfortunately. Nearly 50% of the population alone live in the major cities of Bogotá, Medellín, Cali and Barranquilla. The rural population is much much smaller.

The areas most affected by the conflict voted yes by clear majorities, whether this is this was because in these areas where the FARC have influence they voted out of loyalty/support for the FARC or because they were simply fed up with the conflict and violence it brought who knows. One thing is that the FARC have made a lot of money from the cocaine trade that means, unlike other similar movements, they don't exactly need to rely on popular support for funds or resources.

 

[CyberRose]

A piece in The Nation - the ceasefire will hold, disarmament of the FARC has begun and will continue, and as far as the referendum result is concerned, some are pointing the finger at Human Rights Watch and their local man:

Did Human Rights Watch Sabotage Colombia’s Peace Agreement?

For such a narrow margin of difference anything could be to blame, like Hurricane Matthew...

How Hurricane Matthew may have destroyed Colombia's peace vote | The City Paper Bogotá

I think the biggest question is why so few people turned out to vote (not that it's hard to understand why so many people can't be arsed in other elections in Colombia, there's not exactly a good choice for most people)

 

[butchersapron]

The president - key role in the extra-juridical murder of 1000s in the 2000s - has just been given the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

[butchersapron]

Duterte must be a shoo-in for next year.

 

[Idris2002]

The president - key role in the extra-juridical murder of 1000s in the 2000s - has just been given the Nobel Peace Prize.

Any links on that one? I tried googling, but all I got was Counterpunch and Globalresearch.ca

From Reuters:

"The award pointedly excluded FARC guerrilla leader Rodrigo Londono, better known by his nom de guerre Timochenko, who signed the deal with Santos. "

Why? Did they give a reason for this pointed exclusion?

Colombian President Santos wins Nobel Peace Prize

At this rate the so-called "Nobel Prize for Economics" will start looking credible.

 

[butchersapron]

Any links on that one? I tried googling, but all I got was Counterpunch and Globalresearch.ca
.

Have a click through the many serious links here. Santos was defence minister during this entire period of Plan Colombia.

 

[Brainaddict]

I find the idea of a yes/no referendum on an intricately detailed peace accord negotiated over 4 years to be utterly bizarre. Seems to me that there is a parallel with Cameron - Santos called a referendum because he arrogantly thought he could strengthen his own political position with it. He could perfectly well have concluded the peace agreement without one. As for whether or not that would have been less 'democratic' - that is a difficult concept when the country's politics has been dominated by a violent far right elite for most of its history. It was obvious they would mobilise their support base to oppose the agreement. What was perhaps less obvious was that so few people would turn out to vote - and it was the low turnout that screwed Santos. Arguably the more 'democratic' position would have been to do what the majority of Colombians (and the vast majority of victims of the conflict) want and just sign the thing.