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Egypt anti-government protests grow

A Brotherhood activist said to afriend of mine a while ago that Egypt is so messed up that they'd like to see some kind of other regime take over and deal with the chaos, then come in later via free elections.

They've been used as useful idiots to shore up US support for the regime for a long time. I was wondering how much their refusal to participate in these actions is related to that ... ie not wanting to fuck it up.
 
Mubarak the younger is designated to take over from pops. It's not impossible that he has been taken to a place of absolute safety - but I agree, there's not a lot of reason to believe this one yet.
 
Total police crackdown in Cairo. The police are randomly arresting anyone gathering in group or anyone using cell phones. Several attempted mobilisations have been heavily stomped on and there have been loads of arrests. .It is looking like any follow up demonstrations today aren't going to happen (hope I'm wrong) There are calls for mobilisations after Friday prayers (a favourite Green movement tactic in Iran). So we shall see. Twitter is down and maybe Facebook too.
 
Demonstrators are gathering in various places throughout Cairo and Alex. Demonstrations are growing and getting more confident.
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Crowd is boxed in and are fighting to break the police lines
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Demonstrators are gathering in various places throughout Cairo and Alex. Demonstrations are growing and getting more confident.

Good stuff - despite a BAN on ALL demonstrations.. Egyptian stock-exchange lost 6% during first 15 minutes...
 
Good stuff - despite a BAN on ALL demonstrations.. Egyptian stock-exchange lost 6% during first 15 minutes...

Demonstrations were banned anyway due to the permanent "state of emergency" that Egypt has had since forever. So todays ban is actually a ban on banned demonstrations. :D
 
Be careful what you wish for. Who do you think would win a genuinely free election in Egypt?

Whoever the majority of the population of Egypt trust the most to implement the reforms they want. It's nobody else's business.
 
Be careful what you wish for. Who do you think would win a genuinely free election in Egypt?

Don't underestimate those who want a secular state. There are 80 million people in Egypt and the country has a long tradition of secular nationalist politics. The Muslim Brotherhood is a bogeyman that Mubarak uses to scare away demonstrations. A bit like you are doing. An Islamist victory isn't inevitable and the Islamists have played no role in this uprising. Rather it has been inspired by secular Tunisia. It is a question of leadership and political programme. People will follow those who show they can win. Now is the time for those who believe in a class approach to build a workers party across North Africa.
 
Don't underestimate those who want a secular state. There are 80 million people in Egypt and the country has a long tradition of secular nationalist politics. The Muslim Brotherhood is a bogeyman that Mubarak uses to scare away demonstrations. A bit like you are doing. An Islamist victory isn't inevitable and the Islamists have played no role in this uprising. Rather it has been inspired by secular Tunisia. It is a question of leadership and political programme. People will follow those who show they can win. Now is the time for those who believe in a class approach to build a workers party across North Africa.

Not going to happen. The Islamists would win a free election in Egypt, and indeed throughout the Arab world.

Personally I have no problem with that. I don't like the Islamists, but I'm a democrat. I suspect however that many of those cheering on the demonstrations would not be as willing as I to accept Islamist government in the Arab world. They should be careful what they wish for.
 
Not going to happen. The Islamists would win a free election in Egypt, and indeed throughout the Arab world.

Personally I have no problem with that. I don't like the Islamists, but I'm a democrat. I suspect however that many of those cheering on the demonstrations would not be as willing as I to accept Islamist government in the Arab world. They should be careful what they wish for.

Islamism is a political ideology. A form of nationalism in fact. Like all ideologies it grows and wanes depending on specific circumstances. Also like all ideologies it can be fought and countered by competing ideologies, especially in the heat of a real struggle. The fact that the inspiration for the present rebellion across Arab North Africa is a secular revolution in Tunisia is the best practical blow to Islamism there is. The fact that Islamists are totally absent from this struggle is not lost on ordinary Egyptians who are mobilising around national democratic and class demands. Bread, jobs, end to police brutality, representative government, gives the lie to the idea that Islamism is either inevitable or inherent in the politics of the Arab world. It isn't. As an ideology it has only grown for the past two decades. Egypt also has a tradition of secular nationalism that is much older. Nasserism is still strong amongst Egyptians the consequent idea of the Arab nation. These are ideas that are in competition with Islamist ideas.
 
Islamism is a political ideology. A form of nationalism in fact. Like all ideologies it grows and wanes depending on specific circumstances. Also like all ideologies it can be fought and countered by competing ideologies, especially in the heat of a real struggle. The fact that the inspiration for the present rebellion across Arab North Africa is a secular revolution in Tunisia is the best practical blow to Islamism there is. The fact that Islamists are totally absent from this struggle is not lost on ordinary Egyptians who are mobilising around national democratic and class demands. Bread, jobs, end to police brutality, representative government, gives the lie to the idea that Islamism is either inevitable or inherent in the politics of the Arab world. It isn't. As an ideology it has only grown for the past two decades. Egypt also has a tradition of secular nationalism that is much older. Nasserism is still strong amongst Egyptians the consequent idea of the Arab nation. These are ideas that are in competition with Islamist ideas.

We'll see. But I don't believe for a minute that the Islamists are "totally absent" from what's going on. This is just the kind of opportunity they seized in Iran.
 
Personally I have no problem with that. I don't like the Islamists, but I'm a democrat. I suspect however that many of those cheering on the demonstrations would not be as willing as I to accept Islamist government in the Arab world. They should be careful what they wish for.
Even if a Brotherhood government tried to reverse reforms and institute a dictatorship it would still be a much weaker dictatorship than the current one. And in any case I reckon that any MB gov in Egypt would be pretty moderate, not Iranian-rev style. The MB are house trained and participate in governments in other parts of the Arab world, and there's the example of Turkey as well as regards domesticated Islamists. An Iran-style regime would suffer a boycott, whereas a MB regime that played nice would get major economic benefits.

The people who want a pro-western regime to continue in Egypt are really shooting themselves in the foot by supporting the fossilised Mubarak regime. If the regime dies in blood and fire it might cause an al-shabab style offshoot of the MB to become powerful I suppose.
 
We'll see. But I don't believe for a minute that the Islamists are "totally absent" from what's going on. This is just the kind of opportunity they seized in Iran.

Islamists were central to the Iranian revolution. A half a million people welcomed Khomeini home. The MB in Egypt have resolutely opposed this uprising. The situation isnt the same. I'm not saying that Islamists will not come to lead this protest movement. I am saying it is not inevitable. There is a vaccuum of leadership which can be filled by a number of forces
 
If the regime dies in blood and fire it might cause an al-shabab style offshoot of the MB to become powerful I suppose.

Yes, a lot depends on whether or not there is violence. I agree that an Islamist government would try to follow the Turkish route, with one fatal exception: Israel.
 
Yes, a lot depends on whether or not there is violence. I agree that an Islamist government would try to follow the Turkish route, with one fatal exception: Israel.
Yes they'd have to make a certain amount of noise and possibly even open up the Gaza border, but tbh a concilliationist Egypt regime could just say that it was supporting Abbas than thus never come close to actually attacking Israel.
 
Yes they'd have to make a certain amount of noise and possibly even open up the Gaza border, but tbh a concilliationist Egypt regime could just say that it was supporting Abbas than thus never come close to actually attacking Israel.

But I doubt that an Islamist regime would want to be "conciliationist" with regard to Israel. That would be the problem.
 
As regards the copts I think they're just keeping their heads down, and very sensibly. They already get stamped on by the government and the people. The last thing they need is to be seen as officially endorsing an overthrow of the government.

And anyway, it's not just them - the mosques aren't calling for a revolution either. It's too dangerous for the churches and mosques because they are easy to stamp down on, especially the churches since they are part of a vulnerable (and already discriminated against) minority.
 
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