Egypt anti-government protests grow
- Thread starter stuff_it
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Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
They seem to breaking into state security centres elsewhere:
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Talking of art. How is this for life imitating (no, not imitating, surpassing) art
Spot the difference.
V for Vendetta
Egypt revolution
dylans
overlord of all acorns
The Muslim brotherhood have been waved around a lot over the past few months and I want to post a few thoughts on them and their role in the Egyptian uprising and to answer the question that is often asked about what kind of "threat" if any, the movement presents to the democratic struggle.
The fear has been expressed on this thread and in the Western media in general about the "danger" of the MB somehow hijacking the revolution and emerging as a significant force either in any future electoral process or within civil society in general. According to this thesis, the MB have deliberately played down their size and level of organisation and are waiting events to play out before revealing their true agenda and strength and may emerge in the coming months to present an Islamist agenda which will change the character of this uprising from a generally democratic and secularist uprising into a specifically Islamist one. Depending on the arguments of those making these claims they will put into force their significant support and organisational abilities to hijack the revolution and impose an theocratic government of various shades of Islamism.
According to this argument then, the MB have a hidden radical agenda and want to ride the popular movement before unveiling their real intentions and taking power.
This is the usual argument and it takes various forms from at its most hysterical claims that the MB want to turn Egypt into Iran to the more rational claim that though they may respect the democratic process, they may take Egypt in an altogether more Islamist direction by enforcing legislation detrimental to women and minorities etc.
To this the usual response is to either point to the democratic and secular demands of the movement and to the lack of visible Islamist symbols in this uprising and to down play the size of the MB support or to (naively in my view) argue that the MB "respect" the democracy movement.
The argument for a potential Islamist hijacking of the Egyptian revolution do not convince me but I must say neither do the arguments presented against it. Downplaying the MB strength or base of support seems to me to be simply wishful thinking. Instead I want to present a different argument. I want to argue that the MB are indeed a very real threat and indeed do enjoy significant support (at least in some sectors) and do indeed have a hidden agenda but not the one that people think. I want to argue that far from being a radical threat, the opposite is the case, they are actually an obstacle to real regime change.
The MB are a threat to the radical dynamics of the democracy movement because they are actually acting as a brake on attempts at real regime change. In other words the MB are a threat precisely because they may increasingly be used by the military as a method through which to demobilse and de radicalise this movement, to blunt its edge and ultimately to save the remnants of the Egyptian ruling class from further eroding of their interests. In this thesis the MB are (unwittingly in the case of many members who did indeed play a heroic role in the uprising) a tool of the Egyptian state to be used against the democracy movement.
This thesis, of course, will surprise many, it is the opposite view of the MB from many who warn of their "radical hidden agenda". I am arguing that they have a deradicalising, pro regime, hidden agenda and that this is a role they have played for long before the present uprising.
The Egyptian uprising has many roots of course but it didn't begin last January. Its roots are in much smaller political and industrial struggles. On a political level mobilisations were made around boycott campaigns against the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in 2005 and 2010. It was overwhelmingly successful with over 80% support. Voting in these fraudulent elections it was argued would only serve to justify the Mubarak regime.
The glaring exception to this was the Muslim brotherhood who, despite being banned, and having many members in prison, stood in both elections as independents. By doing so they gave legitimacy to the Mubarak regime and recieved widespread condemnation by all real opposition factions. Factions who the MB resolutely refused all calls for united anti regime action. For this treacherous behaviour they were rewarded with a lessening of intimidation and harassment (actions which were stepped up against the rest of the opposition with no word of protest by the MB)
Worse, the state rewarded the MB by allowing it to maintain ideological control key areas of the state. Yes you read that right. The MB were not only complicit with supporting the Mubarak regime but they were in effect a part of it. They were allowed control of the spheres of education, justice and state TV. Anyone who has lived in Egypt for any period of time can testify to the creeping Islamisation of the state. Descrimination against Copts, banning of pork products, increased censorship (on Islamic grounds) of TV production and news, and the imposition of the hejab in schools. In law we have seen the introduction of elements of Sharia into a previously secular judicial system. All this was done with the active collaboration of the MB. It suited the state because this creeping Islamisation was blamed not on the state but on Egyptian society and on the MB societal influence and was in turn used by Mubarak as a further justification for the continuation of emergency law.
We could go on, the heroic Mahallah strikes of 2006 and 2007 were condemned as unislamic by the MB who still retain a political position that opposes organised labour and strikes and which defends the free market and private ownership of land. All positions exploited by the Mubarak regime. Even their much vaunted anti Israeli positions are exaggerated. They took no role in mass demonstrations against the Iraq invasion in 2003, the list goes on but I guess my point is made. Far from being a talibanesque radical threat the MB have been an colloborationist force in Egyptian politics.
This is most apparent by the stark fact that the MB OPPOSED the current uprising for the first 4 days and only joined when the massive size and irreversible scale of the uprising made it clear that refusal to support it would have destroyed the organisation. Only when it was clear that the movement could not be defeated did they reluctantly join and even then they specifically avoided a public role, not (as has been implied) because they had a cunning plan to hijack the movement but because they had a cunning plan to save their own skins if the uprising failed.
After the fall of Mubarak the regime (with US support) attempted to impose the hated Omar Suleiman onto the country. They are not stupid, the MB did not openly support Suleiman but what they did do was accept and enter into negotiations with the regime against the demands of Tahrir. Those negotiations failed and Suleiman fell but because of the determination and political maturity of the mass movement not for want of the MB who would otherwise have been perfectly happy to take part in the US strategy of "orderly transition.
So where does this leave the MB now. Are they biding their time, waiting to unleash their non existant "radical Islamism" onto the Egyptian people by revealing their "true character and storming elections? The opposite is the case. They are accomodating themselves with the military to make themselves the regimes best choice for a post election government. Not to impose "Talibanesque Sharia" but to save the regime and US geo political strategy.
Oh the irony of the feared Muslim brotherhood saving the Egyptian state for Israel. and how do they intend to do this. The military strategy is to organise for elections sooner rather than later. Given the disorganisation and lack of leadership of the opposition this can only benefit the MB who, whatever their size (and contrary to popular belief they do have significant support particularly amongst the poor and the professional classes) are the most organised faction of the opposition. The opposition needs to push for a slow transition to national elections to give themselves time to organise and campaign, while focussing not on elections per say but on the realisation of their democratic demands such as an end to emergency laws etc. Early elections are merely a tactic by the military to aid the MB. The MB far from being a radical threat to democracy are a threat to democracy precisely because they are NOT radical.
The fear has been expressed on this thread and in the Western media in general about the "danger" of the MB somehow hijacking the revolution and emerging as a significant force either in any future electoral process or within civil society in general. According to this thesis, the MB have deliberately played down their size and level of organisation and are waiting events to play out before revealing their true agenda and strength and may emerge in the coming months to present an Islamist agenda which will change the character of this uprising from a generally democratic and secularist uprising into a specifically Islamist one. Depending on the arguments of those making these claims they will put into force their significant support and organisational abilities to hijack the revolution and impose an theocratic government of various shades of Islamism.
According to this argument then, the MB have a hidden radical agenda and want to ride the popular movement before unveiling their real intentions and taking power.
This is the usual argument and it takes various forms from at its most hysterical claims that the MB want to turn Egypt into Iran to the more rational claim that though they may respect the democratic process, they may take Egypt in an altogether more Islamist direction by enforcing legislation detrimental to women and minorities etc.
To this the usual response is to either point to the democratic and secular demands of the movement and to the lack of visible Islamist symbols in this uprising and to down play the size of the MB support or to (naively in my view) argue that the MB "respect" the democracy movement.
The argument for a potential Islamist hijacking of the Egyptian revolution do not convince me but I must say neither do the arguments presented against it. Downplaying the MB strength or base of support seems to me to be simply wishful thinking. Instead I want to present a different argument. I want to argue that the MB are indeed a very real threat and indeed do enjoy significant support (at least in some sectors) and do indeed have a hidden agenda but not the one that people think. I want to argue that far from being a radical threat, the opposite is the case, they are actually an obstacle to real regime change.
The MB are a threat to the radical dynamics of the democracy movement because they are actually acting as a brake on attempts at real regime change. In other words the MB are a threat precisely because they may increasingly be used by the military as a method through which to demobilse and de radicalise this movement, to blunt its edge and ultimately to save the remnants of the Egyptian ruling class from further eroding of their interests. In this thesis the MB are (unwittingly in the case of many members who did indeed play a heroic role in the uprising) a tool of the Egyptian state to be used against the democracy movement.
This thesis, of course, will surprise many, it is the opposite view of the MB from many who warn of their "radical hidden agenda". I am arguing that they have a deradicalising, pro regime, hidden agenda and that this is a role they have played for long before the present uprising.
The Egyptian uprising has many roots of course but it didn't begin last January. Its roots are in much smaller political and industrial struggles. On a political level mobilisations were made around boycott campaigns against the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in 2005 and 2010. It was overwhelmingly successful with over 80% support. Voting in these fraudulent elections it was argued would only serve to justify the Mubarak regime.
The glaring exception to this was the Muslim brotherhood who, despite being banned, and having many members in prison, stood in both elections as independents. By doing so they gave legitimacy to the Mubarak regime and recieved widespread condemnation by all real opposition factions. Factions who the MB resolutely refused all calls for united anti regime action. For this treacherous behaviour they were rewarded with a lessening of intimidation and harassment (actions which were stepped up against the rest of the opposition with no word of protest by the MB)
Worse, the state rewarded the MB by allowing it to maintain ideological control key areas of the state. Yes you read that right. The MB were not only complicit with supporting the Mubarak regime but they were in effect a part of it. They were allowed control of the spheres of education, justice and state TV. Anyone who has lived in Egypt for any period of time can testify to the creeping Islamisation of the state. Descrimination against Copts, banning of pork products, increased censorship (on Islamic grounds) of TV production and news, and the imposition of the hejab in schools. In law we have seen the introduction of elements of Sharia into a previously secular judicial system. All this was done with the active collaboration of the MB. It suited the state because this creeping Islamisation was blamed not on the state but on Egyptian society and on the MB societal influence and was in turn used by Mubarak as a further justification for the continuation of emergency law.
We could go on, the heroic Mahallah strikes of 2006 and 2007 were condemned as unislamic by the MB who still retain a political position that opposes organised labour and strikes and which defends the free market and private ownership of land. All positions exploited by the Mubarak regime. Even their much vaunted anti Israeli positions are exaggerated. They took no role in mass demonstrations against the Iraq invasion in 2003, the list goes on but I guess my point is made. Far from being a talibanesque radical threat the MB have been an colloborationist force in Egyptian politics.
This is most apparent by the stark fact that the MB OPPOSED the current uprising for the first 4 days and only joined when the massive size and irreversible scale of the uprising made it clear that refusal to support it would have destroyed the organisation. Only when it was clear that the movement could not be defeated did they reluctantly join and even then they specifically avoided a public role, not (as has been implied) because they had a cunning plan to hijack the movement but because they had a cunning plan to save their own skins if the uprising failed.
After the fall of Mubarak the regime (with US support) attempted to impose the hated Omar Suleiman onto the country. They are not stupid, the MB did not openly support Suleiman but what they did do was accept and enter into negotiations with the regime against the demands of Tahrir. Those negotiations failed and Suleiman fell but because of the determination and political maturity of the mass movement not for want of the MB who would otherwise have been perfectly happy to take part in the US strategy of "orderly transition.
So where does this leave the MB now. Are they biding their time, waiting to unleash their non existant "radical Islamism" onto the Egyptian people by revealing their "true character and storming elections? The opposite is the case. They are accomodating themselves with the military to make themselves the regimes best choice for a post election government. Not to impose "Talibanesque Sharia" but to save the regime and US geo political strategy.
Oh the irony of the feared Muslim brotherhood saving the Egyptian state for Israel. and how do they intend to do this. The military strategy is to organise for elections sooner rather than later. Given the disorganisation and lack of leadership of the opposition this can only benefit the MB who, whatever their size (and contrary to popular belief they do have significant support particularly amongst the poor and the professional classes) are the most organised faction of the opposition. The opposition needs to push for a slow transition to national elections to give themselves time to organise and campaign, while focussing not on elections per say but on the realisation of their democratic demands such as an end to emergency laws etc. Early elections are merely a tactic by the military to aid the MB. The MB far from being a radical threat to democracy are a threat to democracy precisely because they are NOT radical.
teqniq
DisMembered
Actually I am impressed.
When you say 'meet' do you mean irl or in chat such as msn etc?
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
Meet in real life. She's in London for an activist conference yesterday. Only for a minute or two. She was saying they know they have to keep the pressure up and that she is trying to learn all she can from Hossam (3arabawy) and I was saying SS trying to destroy docs is a sign that the new PM is a step in the right direction as I think they thought they were protected up until then.
rubbish photo
third from left.
rubbish photo
third from left.
Attachments
Well Dylans You give us lots to think about there. Have you any other outlet for your ideas and experiences than U75? I think you should do some articles for a serious newspaper. I would like to see how well what you say stands up to scrutiny from someone with similar knowledge of Egypt to yours. There needs to be more informed debate, like you provide.
What is worrying is that our own political masters have a much more superficial view on these world changing issues than is being expressed on a bulletin board. We cannot let Micky Mouse media wrongfoot us into making any more blunders in our desperation to keep the oil flowing, and our arms trade busy under the guise of 'stability'.
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
Yes, thanks for that, dylans. I haven't the knowledge to confirm or deny but it's certainly an interesting view. Libyafeb17 have set up a forum but I don't know of an Egyptian equivalent. 3arabawy did say that they should be looking to make connections with Western civil society.
It's a shame the single post function doesn't work any longer.
Have you thought about getting your views out to a broader audience?
It's a shame the single post function doesn't work any longer.
Have you thought about getting your views out to a broader audience?
dylans
overlord of all acorns
No. I write mainly for myself and sounding off on here is a good way for me to get instant feedback and criticisms etc. I don't really have the confidence to write for publication. I am more of a geeky academic and I am trying to get the money together to do my masters so expressing my ideas here all helps get my ideas together basically. I do keep a lot of the stuff I have written however and there are a few posts that I am proud of so I was thinking of starting a blog or a website
You could get some of it together, tidy it up and present it at some 'proper' place for sure.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I'm in touch with a few but yeah of course it would be good to get in touch with activists over there. I'm planning on going to Cairo in November so it would be good to make a few contacts that I could meet up with when I get there
You are not a geeky academic when you write analytically about the political background to a revolution in a country where you have lived. That is real life.
Also if you fired off a letter to for example The Telegraph, you might fire up a bit of response from some ex diplomats or others who have experience of the West's dealings with the old regime. The worst the paper can do is to ignore it. In the current condition of the printed press, they would be unlikely to turn down free copy.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
I want to study political history and culture but it remains a dream for now because of money.
( I would have loved to have been there but I am not in London and I have problems getting out because of child care issues. I'm a single dad and take care of a ten year old kid all alone)
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
absolutely.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
But listening to people twatting on about activism's a great day out for a 10 year old...
Well frogwoman is not unknown in the world of analytical and thoughtful political comment.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Taking him to Cairo later this year.. Now that will be a great experience for him. He probably knows more about Egyptian politics than any ten year old in Britain (but not I bet in Egypt)
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I want to go to cairo.
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