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'Economic' consequences of Peak Oil

Backatcha Bandit

is not taking your calls
Now that the debate regarding the reality of 'peak oil' is essentially over, I was wondering if I am alone in viewing the current 'economic' cluster-fuck as being a direct result of the rise in energy 'costs'.

I've long held the view that, since 'economics' is subsidiary to 'energy', to attempt to discuss 'energy' in 'economic' terms would be a category error, although this is what is commonly done:

chart


Indeed, only an idiot (or an economist - which is pretty much the same thing) would ever attempt to do such a thing.

I don't believe the same to be true when discussing 'economics' in terms of 'energy', yet this (with a few notable exceptions) rarely ever occurs.

Viewed from this perspective, it seems fairly clear to me that the current 'financial crisis' is, at root, symptomatic of a rapidly declining ability to procure energy on the terms to which we are used.

With this in mind, it would appear that any talk of 'recovery' toward a state of 'business as usual' is at best a fairy story, if not utterly counter productive. The party's over. The 'infinite growth' paradigm is dead.

Reactions to this state of affairs range from an attempt from the right of the 'political spectrum' to blame everything on the feckless, scrounging poor (dismantle the welfare state, cut public services, etc.) to the lefts' - somewhat more valid - blaming of greed and corruption on the part of the ruling oligarchical kleptocracy, which manifests itself in the oppression, dispossession and disenfranchisement of the majority.

Having just gone through the recent House of Lords debate on energy and climate change, what becomes fairly clear is that the establishment is somewhat entrenched in a fantasy world-view that sees 'the market' as the solution to the problem, and that reduction of consumption is the way forward.

The 'free-market' solution of 'demand destruction' is a common euphemism for 'let the peasants freeze/starve, fuck them'.

At a time when it has becoming increasingly clear to even the most myopic Daily Mail reader that 'parliamentary democracy' is effectively dead, in that global corporate and financial interests have co-opted the process to the exclusion of mere mortals, yet I increasingly feel that, sadly, a traditional class-based analysis may fail to yield much in the way useful answers to the problem. Even less useful are the petty, divisive sectarian squabbles which appear to be the stock in trade of certain elements (here and elsewhere).

As recent events in London demonstrated, there is perhaps a real possibility of the country eventually sliding into what might reasonably described as 'civil war'.

My fear is that, once we manage to gatecrash the party, we find that there's no cake left. To put it another way; the music stops, only for us to find that the rich have already fucked off with all the chairs to use as firewood, leaving us to pay for the DJ and cucumber sandwiches.

Faced with diminishing access to the fuel, food and resources to which we have become accustomed - and without the option of re-appropriating them from elsewhere (the rich neither eat much more than the rest of us and probably don't taste any better than Lidl beefburgers), what are our options?

southparkmadmax.jpg

Looking to history for answers informs us that complex civilisations have a nasty habit of collapsing, once their strategy for appropriating energy and resources becomes subject to the law of diminishing returns.

Our very mode of existence is - and has been for some time - predicated upon appropriating resources from outside of our own 'landbase' - even food grown in the UK is largely dependent upon imported hydrocarbon energy.

There are various things we could probably do if we wished to change our current strategy, but I contend that trying to maintain the existing one is no longer an realistic option.

This brings up certain questions (land ownership/access, for instance) which I don't often see discussed.

Anyway... enough of my doom-mongering... What say you? :)
 
Oh dear. There is a real, vital, lively debate to be had about how we are going to power our future transport systems, and no easy answers.

However this kind of extreme hyperbole really doesn't help matters.

Calm down, then come over to the transport forum and debate these things sensibly.
 
It's a tricky one BB.
I raised the issue of humane population reduction (as a response to peak everything) a while ago and was immediately set upon by the certain elements you mention, effectively killing further debate.

I think that humans need to develop a 'one mind' / 'single organism' awareness and actually start living within the limits set by the Earth's ecosystems. Trying to get people to agree on this is several orders of difficulty ahead of herding cats, so I'm not holding my breath.

Now, where did I leave the key to my Tardis?
:)
 
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/threads/323550-quot-Economics-for-a-crowded-planet-quot-needed-!

Maybe that helps a bit?

But seriously speaking: we must go nuclear?

http://www.utilityweek.co.uk/news/europe/nuclear-makes-a-comeback-in-fi.php

http://www.thebioenergysite.com/articles/374/sweden-biofuels-annual-report-2009

On June 16, 2009, the Swedish Parliament approved the Government’s new energy and climate strategy, described as Europe’s most ambitious strategy to improve energy efficiency and cut greenhouse gas emissions, a USDA Foreign Agricultural Services report says. The Swedish government aims by 2020 for renewable energy to comprise 50 per cent of all energy produced, for the Swedish car fleet to be independent of fossil fuels 10 years later and for the country to be carbon neutral by 2050.
 
Faced with diminishing access to the fuel, food and resources to which we have become accustomed - and without the option of re-appropriating them from elsewhere (the rich neither eat much more than the rest of us and probably don't taste any better than Lidl beefburgers), what are our options?
FWIW I think the food aspect is overplayed.We produce so much food we can burn it to make cars go in the most inefficient manner imagenable. Food production current takes less than 20% of energy and there are far more energy efficient ways of producing food than the current paradigm of drenching fields nitrates from tractors. Also we can be far more efficient in the types of foods we eat. Less meat and more potatos may seem like the end of civilisation to many but its just a rewind back to 70s type diets for countries like the UK.

Less energy for transport is about time, we will simply have to get places slower taking more energy efficient means. Rail with its very low friction on the rails means we have to wait for trains that dont go exactly where we want (trams etc) replace cars, and eventually we may have times where transport is not available due to renewables not being available, but a slower paced world is again not the end of the world. My strong hunch is that the weight of trains has never really been a big issue, with energy prices going up this will become more of an issue and we can make relativly important efficiency savings there.

A slower world where energy is less on demand is to me the most likely outcome.
 
How does the Peak Oil debate relate to the one about Man made Global Warming?
Its bloody awfull news. We currently use light sweet crudes for a lot of our transport, there will be a strong imperative to replace these with CTL (coal to liquid) sourced fuels. The US airforce is already experimenting with this for high performance jets for example (while the Navy is going biofuel, but they seem to be pretty switched on about AGW and peak oil). Coal to liquid will mean a huge surge in CO2 per joule for transport.

James Hansen has done work on this and actually tells activists\ politicians to all but ignore oil and focus on coal.

cv_hansen_fig8.png


Methane gas is the big question mark it burns something like 1 part CO2 4 parts water as its waste so is pretty good for CO2 to joules and there seems to be a bit more NG than we thought and you get NG one hell of a lot deeper than oil so that debate is pretty open.
 
Now that the debate regarding the reality of 'peak oil' is essentially over, I was wondering if I am alone in viewing the current 'economic' cluster-fuck as being a direct result of the rise in energy 'costs'.

What say you? :)
I think it was / is a major part of the problem. IMO there was a major housing bubble that was going to burst sooner or later, which then burst the banking bubble etc but the thing that finally burst the housing bubble IMO was the impact of the high oil price on US industry and housing areas that were utterly reliant on the car, and low oil price for their existence.

IMO until we decouple GDP growth from energy use* growth, we're doomed to bump along against the limits imposed by peak oil.

the thing that can save us from the fate of previous complex civilisations is that we are currently so utterly wasteful of energy that we have huge potential to reduce our energy usage to a sustainable level without necessarily needing to hugely alter our lifestyles. The longer we leave it until we start to really seriously do this though, the less likely it is that we'll manage to achieve this with a smooth transition, and the more it's going to end up impacting on average quality of life.
 
Commentators have been rabbitting on about fossil fuel depletion for well over a century now, from Jevons in 1865, to what we have now, and with a host of other resource bottleneck 'disasters' in between (copper shortages for telephony comes to mind). A much more plausible connection to financial crisis is deregulation leading to opacity in how to value assets, followed by a collapse of faith in the system.

Peak oil will almost certainly cause price rises and a measure of short term misery - it might also very well provide the impetus for large scale research programmes of the size capable of providing workable alternatives to fossil fuels themselves (in the same way that advances in fibreglass more or less completely solved the copper/telephony issue)
 
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