It's all a bit confused at the moment, but I'd take the spoiler at face value - I'd say Cleo/Carole up, plus Leo, plus *probably* the person with the most noms after him.
So: if they pick Cleo she'd be more than likely safe, but Carole would be vulnerable against Leo. Think about the respective fees/entertainment value, and apply that to the likely edit Endemol will give each HM. Carole adds little to the show, Leo plenty. In a negative vote Leo could have problems, in a positive he'd probably survive - if I was at Endemol I know what vote I'd announce. They'd like Leo there for a while longer I suspect.
Cleo would cause problems, as they know they can't really edit against her - how could you? She's lovely! I suspect that's why the nominations have been postponed until morning - they need time to figure out who they're going to sacrifice, the second nominee. It looks like Shilpa may be up, which wouldn't suit them either - they really need an expendable at this stage, Carole or Jack. If the group don't pick Carole, Endemol face losing one of their big assets.
So I'm gently backing Carole, but very, very steadily. This lot couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery, as we saw this summer.