Burma - explanation please!
- Thread starter damnhippie
- Start date
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undisambiguated
ymu said:
certainly true. But on the upside, the UN has existed for 60 years, without fracturing, and successfully prevented the two great late c20 empires from annihilating each other and all the rest of us.
Jaw jaw really is better than than war war: despite all its fault the UN is the best we've got, the best we've ever had.
Of course Burma exposes the limitations of what the UN can achieve (& I mentioned Dafur & Zimbabwe earlier) but at no period in human history has 'the international community' been able to prevent despotic rulers in far off places behaving badly. For most of history they've not even tried.
damnhippie
shark sandwich
no-no said:
yes - but i wanted to hear what people here thought.
i posted the thread almost as soon as i got home after seeing some footage on the bbc news channel while out and about. i don't own a telly and the bbc website is quite low key about the whole thing.
i'll freely admit to being pretty ignorant about it - but i wanted to learn.
i'm aware that there's quite a lot of people here much more clued up on such things than me. i'm also aware the urban (mostly!) has a view on these things that i trust.
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
When a thread's gone 3 pages or more without repetition or deviation but perhaps a few pauses to think before you post, this place can be pretty decent place to start looking at a topic. Most topics anyway.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
i wanted to ask ... this may seem a horrible question, but why hasn't DASSK been executed yet? Is it because it would provoke such a massive outcry from the people? I obviously hope they don't do it, but I just wondered why they hadn't, and instead expended all that energy in keeping her under lock and key ...
it seems like they are scared of the power which she has which can only be a good thing tbh
it seems like they are scared of the power which she has which can only be a good thing tbh
story said:
Whilst certainly an important point, the main reason that no UN action will be taken against Burma is twofold. Firstly; it's not so much the gas that Burma has which, given China's economic power, they can source anywhere. It's because Burma provides China with access to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. This allows China to maintain listening and intelligence bases to spy on the Indian Navy (one of their major regional rivals). More importantly, US military strategy in the region is based on their ability to use naval power to close the Molluccas Straits (between Indonesia and Malaysia) and to shut down the sea lanes of communications between China and North-East Asia and the rest of the world (through their influence in both Japan and Taiwan). China relies on the ability to transport oil through Burma in the case of conflict with the US. In other words, China will not allow anything to happen to Burma unless they have an absolutley guaranteed alternative source of oil.
Secondly; because Burma is so important to China, it is also important to India (who are also a fairly significant military supplier to Burma). India will prevent (or will use their still fairly close links to the UK and US to prevent) any significant action against Burma unless they are guaranteed a friendly state to buffer their border with China.
In other words; both India and China will use direct and indirect power to prevent any use of force or any serious UN (as opposed to regional, like EU, or unilateral US) sanctions against Burma in an attempt to protect their own interests. Neither state will allow a regime collapse in Burma unless they are positive that the replacement will be friendly to themselves, which means that neither state will support regime change and will actively support the current junta. Better the devil you know, as they say.
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
It's thought that the Depayin massacre in 2003 was an attempt to assasinate her, albeit not through the traditional sniper. The outcry from the people and the international commuity would be too enormous for them to contain if they absolutely definitely popped her off that way. Nobody knows if the junta will survive this uprising, they certainly wouldn't if Ma Suu was killed.frogwoman said:
The love people have for her isn't just because of her efforts for democracy; it also has a great deal to do with her father, the independence hero General Aung San. He's revered throughout the country, almost like the Dalai Lama in Tibet. The military have tried to usurp his image for their own cause and have largely failed.
It's also worth keeping in mind that the upper echelons of Burmese society is a very intimate group. ASSK knows the top generals very well. They despise her, but they respect and fear her just as much.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Thanks for that explanation Purves. It probably really wouldn't be worth it for them though.
I'm also curious ... what support (before the protests) does the junta have in Burma? Are they really hated by almost everyone? Obviously now the answer will probably be yes, but what about before the price rises, etc? What sectors of society tend to support them (if any?)
I'm also curious ... what support (before the protests) does the junta have in Burma? Are they really hated by almost everyone? Obviously now the answer will probably be yes, but what about before the price rises, etc? What sectors of society tend to support them (if any?)
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Relevant update from kid_eternity on t'other thread, for those not on both. 
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=221165&page=14
Don't know if this has been already posted (apols if it has):
Quote:
Reports from Rangoon suggest soldiers are mutinying. It is unclear the numbers involved. Reports cite heavy shooting in the former Burmese capital.
The organisation Helfen ohne Grenzen (Help without Frontiers) is reporting that "Soldiers from the 66th LID (Light Infantry Divison) have turned their weapons against other government troops and possibly police in North Okkalappa township in Rangoon and are defending the protesters. At present unsure how many soldiers involved."
Soldiers in Mandalay, where unrest has spread to as we reported this morning, are also reported to have refused orders to act against protesters.
Some reports claim that many soldiers remained in their barracks. More recent reports now maintain that soldiers from the 99th LID now being sent there to confront them.
Link
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=221165&page=14
Don't know if this has been already posted (apols if it has):
Quote:
Reports from Rangoon suggest soldiers are mutinying. It is unclear the numbers involved. Reports cite heavy shooting in the former Burmese capital.
The organisation Helfen ohne Grenzen (Help without Frontiers) is reporting that "Soldiers from the 66th LID (Light Infantry Divison) have turned their weapons against other government troops and possibly police in North Okkalappa township in Rangoon and are defending the protesters. At present unsure how many soldiers involved."
Soldiers in Mandalay, where unrest has spread to as we reported this morning, are also reported to have refused orders to act against protesters.
Some reports claim that many soldiers remained in their barracks. More recent reports now maintain that soldiers from the 99th LID now being sent there to confront them.
Link
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
Most people generally put up with the regime, they learn to live with it, work around it. They dislike them, but they have to get on with surviving. Those who really despise them can of course be found in all walks of life, but especially amongst ethnic and religious minorities.frogwoman said:
Those who actively support them? Apart from the obvious bods in the military, they're supported by many of those who've been put into decently paid USDA positions - think of the USDA as the civilian wing of the military administration (explained nicely here), many businesspeople, ceasefire groups (ethnic minority armies who've signed a peace deal with the regime: in return for keeping down the restive ethnics, they flog off the natural resources of the very ethnic group they claim to represent), a few in the entertainment business...
They rule by fear and cronyism. So crude, so primitive, but pretty effective until now.
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
The top cronies are extremely rich even by western standards. Everybody knows who they are, everybody despises them. Read about them and what they get up to here. They're hated by many just as much as the generals (except for Tay Zar's employees, who describe him as a nice genial boss.) This list doesn't count the cease-fire cronies, drug lords etc. There can't be more than 100 top cronies.ymu said:How much better off are the current cronies compared to if they were the (de facto?) middle-class in a Burmese democracy? Or are they also hated and in fear of revolution? Approx what % of the popn are they, would you guess?
But to do any sort of business in Burma, you have to work with the regime, pay off certain people in order to get necessary documents. Even to do development work you have to work with them to some extent, just to get permission to do what needs to be done. This was the awkward position myself and many others found ourselves in. The regime is that all-pervasive. There are a fair few NLD MPs who are businesspeople, who speak out against the regime and later grudgingly work with them in order to make a living.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
xposting this from t'other thread as is relevant here, I guess. And it's damn good news, also.
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/09/28/burma-internally-dis.html
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/09/28/burma-internally-dis.html
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
They get first dibs on all government contracts, no other business can get a look in. Profits are shared between business owners and ministers. They pay little or zero tax. Legitimate businesses are fiscally shafted while those of cronies are ignored.ymu said:
It is, essentially, fascism in its worst garb.
Just like they say about Zimbabwe, Burma was once South East Asia's greatest hope. In the 1950s. Rangoon University was by far the best learning institution in the region, it was the most agriculturally productive country in the region... fuck the future was bright.
By fuck it could be a country again.
damnhippie
shark sandwich
thoughts with them all.
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
'be at ease'frogwoman said:
it is such a modest, unassuming wish
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Nice biog of Aung San Suu Kyi in the Mirror. Incredible woman; brave family.
March in London on Sunday ?
There is talk of a protest march in London on Sunday:
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=6535493#post6535493
Does anyone here know any more about this?
There is talk of a protest march in London on Sunday:
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=6535493#post6535493
Does anyone here know any more about this?
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