A World with 11 Billion People

[BandWagon]

Interesting article in Nat Geo:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...ation-global-united-nations-2100-boom-africa/

Quote:

"In a paper published Thursday in Science, demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division conclude that instead of leveling off in the second half of the 21st century, as the UN predicted less than a decade ago, the world's population will continue to grow beyond 2100. (Read "Population Seven Billion" in National Geographic magazine.)

And for the first time, through the use of a "probabilistic" statistical method, the Science paper establishes a range of uncertainty around its central estimate-9.6 billion Earthlings in 2050, 10.9 billion by 2100. There's an 80 percent chance, the authors conclude, that the actual number of people in 2100 will be somewhere between 9.6 and 12.3 billion."

Not everyone agrees, thank goodness. That's a hell of a lot of people. More food, more energy needed, making climate change worse.

 

[Pickman's model]

don't bother me, i'll almost certainly be dead by 2075 let alone 2100

 

[littlebabyjesus]

These projections rely on assumptions about the kinds of changes we can bring about in societies. One of the good things here for those worried about population growth is that there is a strong causal link between development and changing family size, mainly due to a change in the economic cost/benefit equation to having large families - more investment per child in fewer children.

And as for the more food/more energy things, well that depends. It's the bits of the world where the population is not growing that are currently the greatest problem in these respects.

 

[inva]

the more the merrier

 

[ferrelhadley]

Lets see, rising sea levels salinating the heavily populated river deltas of the world. So places like the Niger, Nile, Yellow River, Mekong, Ganges... they be a few I have forgotten.
Soil degradation.
Many of the worlds granaries such as those in Southern Africa and the Nebraska and west in the US suffering chronic aridity crises.
Potential collapse of the Amazon rainforest drying out much of the southern half of South America through loss of evapotransporation (check out the current crisis in Sao Palo)
Chronic energy crisis leading to many places to switch back to animals for draght i.e. replacing petroleum with grain.
Major increase in soil evaporation placing serious strains of agriculture in places as mild the East Anglia.
Probable collapse of many ocean food chains from loss of corals, over fishing, ocean acidification, currently about 1 billion are fed from the oceans.
Oh yeah water crisis in place like Bolivia and Peru as the glaciers go, California losing much of its snow pack, loss of many of the worlds key fossil water resources including the Arabian peninsula, Uttar Pradesh, serious rationing in the Ogallala.
Australia, fuck me. Just enjoy it for now, while you can. Hey great solar resource though. But 50C days cometh.... though its the nights that will kill with climate change. The body needs to cool down at night.


11 billion, piece of piss.

Oh and if you live in Florida, sell up now. Really Florida's geology will not be kind in the coming 60 years.

 

[coley]

Lets see, rising sea levels salinating the heavily populated river deltas of the world. So places like the Niger, Nile, Yellow River, Mekong, Ganges... they be a few I have forgotten.
Soil degradation.
Many of the worlds granaries such as those in Southern Africa and the Nebraska and west in the US suffering chronic aridity crises.
Potential collapse of the Amazon rainforest drying out much of the southern half of South America through loss of evapotransporation (check out the current crisis in Sao Palo)
Chronic energy crisis leading to many places to switch back to animals for draght i.e. replacing petroleum with grain.
Major increase in soil evaporation placing serious strains of agriculture in places as mild the East Anglia.
Probable collapse of many ocean food chains from loss of corals, over fishing, ocean acidification, currently about 1 billion are fed from the oceans.
Oh yeah water crisis in place like Bolivia and Peru as the glaciers go, California losing much of its snow pack, loss of many of the worlds key fossil water resources including the Arabian peninsula, Uttar Pradesh, serious rationing in the Ogallala.
Australia, fuck me. Just enjoy it for now, while you can. Hey great solar resource though. But 50C days cometh.... though its the nights that will kill with climate change. The body needs to cool down at night.


11 billion, piece of piss.

Oh and if you live in Florida, sell up now. Really Florida's geology will not be kind in the coming 60 years.

No problemo, a viral disease occurring in a poor area, just ignore it and it will go away , oops it hasn't , supply it with limited resources and the bravery of committed individuals and organisations, whey up it seems to be under control.
Until the big one, sleep,tight, mek sure the bugs don't bite