Another Malaysian airliner crashed in Ukraine

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Here's a strange thing, and not to excuse any apologism or facilitation of thuggery and murder:

The Ukraine incident: Fingers pointed at Putin. He is named, pictured, blamed, condemned.

The ISIS mass murders. No fingers pointed at Saudi leaders. No front page condemnations. Not a thing.

Why?

 

[pocketscience]

John McCain?

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Here's a strange thing, and not to excuse any apologism or facilitation of thuggery and murder:

The Ukraine incident: Fingers pointed at Putin. He is named, pictured, blamed, condemned.

The ISIS mass murders. No fingers pointed at Saudi leaders. No front page condemnations. Not a thing.

Why?

Because the people who died on MH17 were white.

 

[DownwardDog]

Was intriguing: they seemed to want to put forward several contradictory ideas which even their own radar data refuted. The fighter they identified (Su-25) and the armament it carries aren't up to the task they are suggesting it carried out (and not consistent with the physical evidence thus far) - even if we now pretend it can reach 30kft as per the 'as if by magic' change to the spec on the relevant wikipedia page shortly after the press conference (and contradicting the manufacturer's own data). No prizes for guessing who that edit's attributed to.

Their graphics clearly showed a Fencer (Su-24) not a Frogfoot (Su-25) so fuck knows what they were trying to achieve beyond creating more confusion.

 

[Lemon Eddy]

fuck knows what they were trying to achieve beyond creating more confusion.

Confusion is all that's needed, at a time when people will quote any bollocks website as proof.

 

[nino_savatte]

John McCain?

Arrest him!

 

[2hats]

Their graphics clearly showed a Fencer (Su-24) not a Frogfoot (Su-25) so fuck knows what they were trying to achieve beyond creating more confusion.

The accompanying graphic also seemed to be using some 707's (or perhaps RC135) in lieu of 777's.

Will be interesting if they do provide the raw radar data as they state they will so Cranfield or similar can chew on it (as oppose to a graphical representation of it).

 

[Pickman's model]

Here's a strange thing, and not to excuse any apologism or facilitation of thuggery and murder:

The Ukraine incident: Fingers pointed at Putin. He is named, pictured, blamed, condemned.

The ISIS mass murders. No fingers pointed at Saudi leaders. No front page condemnations. Not a thing.

Why?

because it's convenient. why do you think?

 

[butchersapron]

Here's a strange thing, and not to excuse any apologism or facilitation of thuggery and murder:

The Ukraine incident: Fingers pointed at Putin. He is named, pictured, blamed, condemned.

The ISIS mass murders. No fingers pointed at Saudi leaders. No front page condemnations. Not a thing.

Why?

Which mass murders?

 

[gosub]

SU25 is a ground attack aircraft with a service ceiling of 23,000 ft

 

[weltweit]

SU25 is a ground attack aircraft with a service ceiling of 23,000 ft

Could a rocket have been fired at it but missed and gone on to hit MH17 ?

 

[gosub]

Could a rocket have been fired at it but missed and gone on to hit MH17 ?

Thats more possible than Russia's
“A Ukraine Air Force military jet was detected gaining height, it’s distance from the Malaysian Boeing was 3 to 5km,” said the head of the Main Operations Directorate of the HQ of Russia’s military forces, Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov speaking at a media conference in Moscow on Monday.

“[We] would like to get an explanation as to why the military jet was flying along a civil aviation corridor at almost the same time and at the same level as a passenger plane,” he stated.

“The SU-25 fighter jet can gain an altitude of 10km, according to its specification,” he added. “It’s equipped with air-to-air R-60 missiles that can hit a target at a distance up to 12km, up to 5km for sure.”

which is an out and out lie, and not a very good one from a technical point of view. Even unarmed,it is impossible that a plane of this type, which is not a fighter, was in the civilian air corridor.

 

[Pickman's model]

SU25 is a ground attack aircraft with a service ceiling of 23,000 ft

what's the relevance of this service ceiling? you'd have thought that one of these su25s could get up to 33,000

 

[gosub]

what's the relevance of this service ceiling? you'd have thought that one of these su25s could get up to 33,000

thats the max height it will fly at, add ordnance, would be even lower. Also max speed of 950kph so slower than a 777 on LRC

 

[Lemon Eddy]

Could a rocket have been fired at it but missed and gone on to hit MH17 ?

That almost reaches the point of a plausible argument.

If Russia's contention is that the Ukraine government had a military jet flying in proximity to a civilian airline, and the rebels hit the airline by mistake when aiming for the jet, it brings things back into fog of war territory, with the blame falling on both sides.

 

[2hats]

Could a rocket have been fired at it but missed and gone on to hit MH17 ?

The signs of damage seen thus far are consistent with the larger radar guided HE fragmentation warhead of the BUK and not the IR guided continuous/expanding rod warhead of the R-60.

The processed radar presentation clearly illustrates the suspect Su-25 only appearing after MH17 falls apart (and then 'loitering' in a location consistent with the debris field) so it can't be in a zoom climb to deliver a missile to a target (which would be outside the performance envelope anyway). The processed radar graphic (ie the software rendering it) would appear to be making assumptions about the data as a means to try to help the operator in identification however those assumptions may be invalid (quite likely are invalid) in the presence of a rapidly changing debris field of numerous targets of varying radar cross section.

 

[2hats]

what's the relevance of this service ceiling? you'd have thought that one of these su25s could get up to 33,000

Can't quite work out the logic of climbing to the target altitude after you have destroyed it and risking terminal damage in the debris field, particularly when it is beyond or even (let's say for the sake of debate) at the extreme limit of what your aircraft is capable of?

 

[gosub]

That almost reaches the point of a plausible argument.

If Russia's contention is that the Ukraine government had a military jet flying in proximity to a civilian airline, and the rebels hit the airline by mistake when aiming for the jet, it brings things back into fog of war territory, with the blame falling on both sides.

Situation already had a tragicly understandable fog of war feel about it, they, living in a war zone were unaware of the air corridor and the airlines were unaware of what sort of working kit they had access to. Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov is knowingly sprinkling bull shit on the situation to seed confusion.

 

[Lemon Eddy]

Situation already had a tragicly understandable fog of war feel about it, they, living in a war zone were unaware of the air corridor and the airlines were unaware of what sort of working kit they had access to. Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov is knowingly sprinkling bull shit on the situation to seed confusion.

Indeed. But realistically, that's all they have to do. With the US having set a precedent of "It's ok to shoot down an airliner if you claim it was an honest mistake, no apology needed", and Ukraine having accidentally shot down a commercial airliner previous in 2001, it's not as if the rest of the world can get too indignant about this.

 

[weltweit]

The signs of damage seen thus far are consistent with the larger radar guarded HE fragmentation warhead of the BUK and not the IR guided continuous/expanding rod warhead of the R-60.

The processed radar presentation clearly illustrates the suspect Su-25 only appearing after MH17 falls apart (and then 'loitering' in a location consistent with the debris field) so it can't be in a zoom climb to deliver a missile to a target (which would be outside the performance envelope anyway). The processed radar graphic (ie the software rendering it) would appear to be making assumptions about the data as a means to try to help the operator in identification however those assumptions may be invalid (quite likely are invalid) in the presence of a rapidly changing debris field of numerous targets of varying radar cross section.

That wasn't quite what I was thinking.

I was thinking perhaps a Buk system got a fix on a Ukranian fighter and fired a missile, the Ukranian fighter took successful evasive action but the missile went on and acquired the airliner then shooting that plane down instead.

 

[Lemon Eddy]

The processed radar presentation clearly illustrates the suspect Su-25 only appearing after MH17 falls apart (and then 'loitering' in a location consistent with the debris field) so it can't be in a zoom climb to deliver a missile to a target (which would be outside the performance envelope anyway). The processed radar graphic (ie the software rendering it) would appear to be making assumptions about the data as a means to try to help the operator in identification however those assumptions may be invalid (quite likely are invalid) in the presence of a rapidly changing debris field of numerous targets of varying radar cross section.

Sorry if I've missed it previously, but could you give me a link for that presentation.

 

[2hats]

I was thinking perhaps a Buk system got a fix on a Ukranian fighter and fired a missile, the Ukranian fighter took successful evasive action but the missile went on and acquired the airliner then shooting that plane down instead.

Ah I see. One possible scenario, perhaps, but then I can't see the 'Su-25' hanging around to spectate when it (by then) clearly knows there are SAMs active in the area, can you? You would get the fuck out of Dodge.

 

[gosub]

Sorry if I've missed it previously, but could you give me a link for that presentation.

http://rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plane-russia-ukraine/

 

[DownwardDog]

Ah I see. One possible scenario, perhaps, but then I can't see the 'Su-25' hanging around to spectate when it (by then) clearly knows there are SAMs active in the area, can you? You would get the fuck out of Dodge.

It depends what the mission is. You don't get to RTB just because a nasty man fired a SAM at you and it missed.

 

[gosub]

It depends what the mission is. You don't get to RTB just because a nasty man fired a SAM at you and it missed.

you ain't buying the SU25 are you? Its 777 debris.

 

[5t3IIa]

Colin Brazier "MH17: my error of judgment, by Sky News reporter"

http://www.theguardian.com/media/20...colin-brazier-crash-victims-luggage?CMP=fb_gu

At the weekend I got things wrong. If there was someone to apologise to in person, I would. While presenting Sky's lunchtime coverage of the flight MH17 disaster, I stooped down to look at a piece of debris. It was a child's suitcase. I put my hand inside and lifted up a water bottle and a set of keys. As I did so my mental circuit-breaker finally engaged and I apologised instantly on-air for what I was doing.

 

[DownwardDog]

you ain't buying the SU25 are you? Its 777 debris.

No, I don't buy it for a fucking second. I'm just saying you don't get to bingo just because the enemy is firing at you.

 

[2hats]

Sorry if I've missed it previously, but could you give me a link for that presentation.

Available here:



Relevant sequence:



Image 1: Situation prior to breakup. MH17 (MAS17) visible tracking SE to TAMAK. SIA351 (Singapore) is top, left of centre tracking SE. AIC113 (Air India) is on the right tracking to the NW.
Image 2: MH17 has deviated strongly from flightpath and has probably begun to break up with debris moving NE with the upper level winds. Possibly the aircraft yawed to the NE (and most likely rolled) as a result of the event.
Image 3: First identification of 'Su-25' by the presenter.
Image 4: Last identification by the system of MH17 (probably as the main wing box or some cluster of major structural items the primary radar had assumed to be the aircraft disappeared below the local radar horizon). Timescale from image 2 to 4 (flight deviation to loss of main contact) is under 90 seconds which would be consistent with rapid loss of flight, break up and ballistic evolution.

The raw data would potentially be far more interesting, of course.

 

[2hats]

It depends what the mission is. You don't get to RTB just because a nasty man fired a SAM at you and it missed.

True. I don't think you would loiter either or make yourself a sitting target. Re-position elsewhere in theatre with all speed?

 

[likesfish]

Milita got a sam system didnt know about civillian flightpath.
So asssumed anything flying was a target normal air defence artillery thought pattern.
Airline thought milita only had manpads.
Cock up although if it can be proved the russians gave them a buk putains in the shit
Doesnt take 5 mins to render one unusable hammer to console and its useless