The big one (Californian earthquake) may be more likely

[2hats]

Recent research (DOI:10.1126/sciadv.1500621) suggests that the likelihood of a large earthquake is probably greater than previously thought. Modelling and studies of records point to large Californian earthquakes occurring when both the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults are active at the same time (for example, this is suspected to have been the case for a pair of 7+ earthquakes in southern California in December 1812).

This is important because a lot of disaster planning has been predicated on only one fault moving in any given major event. Also, critically, the San Jacinto fault passes through and closer to additional urban areas (beyond those already within the grasp of the San Andreas fault).

More in this Guardian article.

 

[bi0boy]

They're so unprepared it's scary.

 

[newbie]

What makes this 'the big one'? Is it simply because it involves rich americans or are more people at risk than from any other potential event worldwide?

 

[2hats]

What makes this 'the big one'? Is it simply because it involves rich americans or are more people at risk than from any other potential event worldwide?

It's a turn of phrase used by Californians to refer to the inevitable large earthquake that will one day occur there. Whether that is in part due to their own (or others) opinions of themselves, I know not.

 

[Gromit]

There was a documentary on tv about this the other night.

That pro wrestling fella was in it. Dwane something or other. He's a helicopter rescue pilot now.

Anyway it was very upsetting to see that San Francisco has been destroyed by this quake. I always fancied visiting one day.

I'm surprised there hasn't been more about it in the news to be honest. Are the government covering it up for some reason. Good job they can't hush threads like this.

 

[newbie]

It's a turn of phrase used by Californians to refer to the inevitable large earthquake that will one day occur there. Whether that is in part due to their own (or others) opinions of themselves, I know not.

Fair enough. We all know Californians have a somewhat exaggerated view of their own importance, but I've been trying to put some numbers on it. Partly because i can't stop futile thoughts about the dam in Iraq, said to directly threaten a million people. Then there's another million in Naples, underneath Vesuvius, and so on.

While looking I found a wiki page that reckons the probability of human extinction before 2100 is 19%, which is a bit sobering. I think denial is the only sane approach to that.

Anyway, "A different USGS study in 2008 tried to assess the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California. That study predicted that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southern San Andreas Fault could cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion in damage." A lot of money, for sure, and a lot of misery, but for perspective, earthquakes killed 280,000 in the 2004 tsunami and 160,000 in Haiti in 2010. Both were dwarfed by one in China in 1976 which killed ~700,000 people.

 

[Sirena]

I'm surprised there hasn't been more about it in the news to be honest. Are the government covering it up for some reason. Good job they can't hush threads like this.

This was the BBC coverage...