Singularity watch - the future is already here

[Fez909]

The Singularity, for those who don't know, is a point in time where human intelligence is 'beaten' by the combination of man and machine (or perhaps just machine?). Once this happens we don't know what is likely to come out of it. It could be that we are suddenly able to solve a lot of the problems where solutions have so far eluded us, and we'll live in a technological utopia. It may be that this will be the end of humans, and it'll be a crushing dystopia. It's impossible to predict because, by definition, it's outside of our understanding.

The rate of change of technological advancement is increasing all the time, and I think it'd be interesting to keep track of what's going on to see where we are in terms of distance from the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous person associated with the term and he reckons it'll happen in 2045. Seems a good bet, to me.

The relevant fields are AI/machine learning, biology, human computer interaction, etc. If you spot anything relevant, post it up!

I spotted this in the news today: Rats Given 6th Sense - Rats have had implants put into their brains which allows them to use parts of the brain used for one thing (touch in this instance) to perform another task (sensing infrared light) which is a first for adult animals.

 

[TruXta]

Rapture of the nerds. It's a load of bunkum. The period with the greatest relative technological advances happened 100+ years ago.

 

[Fez909]

Rapture of the nerds. It's a load of bunkum. The period with the greatest relative technological advances happened 100+ years ago.

It depends on what technologies you're measuring, surely? How was neuroscience doing in 1913?

 

[TruXta]

It depends on what technologies you're measuring, surely? How was neuroscience doing in 1913?

Not too shabby actually. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_neuroscience#Emergence_of_neuropsychology

As for your contention that technology is advancing at an increasing rate, tell that to a doctor. Or a carpenter. Or a car mechanic. Or an electrician.

 

[Crispy]

Just because computers could (will?) get smarter than us, doesn't mean anyone has to pay attention.

"Humanity! I've worked out how we can all live together in peace, whilst making sustainable use of the earth's resources!"
"Does it mean giving up the hierarchical power structures that maintain my life of luxury?"
"Well, yes, but..."
*pulls plug*

 

[Fruitloop]

I'm not sure that the point is that it advances at an increasing rate is it? Rather that there is a tipping point.

 

[TruXta]

My fave 3-minute debunking of Singularity http://vserver1.cscs.lsa.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/699.html

 

[DotCommunist]

Rapture of the nerds. It's a load of bunkum. The period with the greatest relative technological advances happened 100+ years ago.

untill we can actually upload a human mind state into a computer I'll agree with bunkum. Then there is the 'ah' quesstion. But 'ah' is a snapshot that continues to experience within a substrate really you- is anything really you. I need another bong now.

 

[TruXta]

untill we can actually upload a human mind state into a computer I'll agree with bunkum. Then there is the 'ah' quesstion. But 'ah' is a snapshot that continues to experience within a substrate really you- is anything really you. I need another bong now.

No such thing as a human mind state, mate.

 

[Fez909]

Not too shabby actually. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_neuroscience#Emergence_of_neuropsychology

As for your contention that technology is advancing at an increasing rate, tell that to a doctor. Or a carpenter. Or a car mechanic. Or an electrician.

Fair enough on the neuroscience, but those other examples just prove my point. The advancements a doctor uses these days are through things like prostheses, diagnostic machines, surgical tools and procedures, etc. Carpenters are a rare breed these days (in the first world, at least) so I don't see the relevance to the discussion: their trade has been largely replaced by other techniques. Unless we're including non-wood work in carpentry? Mechanics' jobs have changed a lot over the past few decade. Most cars have computer diagnostics now and you have things like electric and alternative fuel cars. Electricians, fair enough, there's not a lot of new stuff going on there.

But I don't claim that all technologies are advancing at an ever increasing rate, that would be silly. Technology when looked at holistically? For sure.

 

[DotCommunist]

No such thing as a human mind state, mate.

surely there is. Not a homonuculs nubskulls little man pulling the levers in your brain but from moment to monet there is, surely. You've no doubt read more on this than I.


But to capture that particular set of reactions, neural connectivity etc etc at that time- photograph of a human consciousness praps?

 

[DotCommunist]

I'm leaving that monet error in there because it makes me look cultured.

 

[Fez909]

My fave 3-minute debunking of Singularity http://vserver1.cscs.lsa.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/699.html

Debunk by proof, that's a new logic I've not come across before.

 

[Crispy]

surely there is. Not a homonuculs nubskulls little man pulling the levers in your brain but from moment to monet there is, surely. You've no doubt read more on this than I.


But to capture that particular set of reactions, neural connectivity etc etc at that time- photograph of a human consciousness praps?

Damned tricky, given that it's all changing all the time.

 

[TruXta]

Fair enough on the neuroscience, but those other examples just prove my point. The advancements a doctor uses these days are through things like prostheses, diagnostic machines, surgical tools and procedures, etc. Carpenters are a rare breed these days (in the first world, at least) so I don't see the relevance to the discussion: their trade has been largely replaced by other techniques. Unless we're including non-wood work in carpentry? Mechanics' jobs have changed a lot over the past few decade. Most cars have computer diagnostics now and you have things like electric and alternative fuel cars. Electricians, fair enough, there's not a lot of new stuff going on there.

But I don't claim that all technologies are advancing at an ever increasing rate, that would be silly. Technology when looked at holistically? For sure.

Not a chance. For all the advancements made, how many go into production and make a difference? Not many. There are proportionally more bikes on the roads to day than 50 years ago. Corrugated iron is still one of the most important construction elements world-wide. We still use engines that are more alike than unlike the ones made 100 years ago.

Read Shock of the Old, great little book on how old tech is still more popular, and in many cases better than new tech.

 

[Fez909]

surely there is. Not a homonuculs nubskulls little man pulling the levers in your brain but from moment to monet there is, surely. You've no doubt read more on this than I.


But to capture that particular set of reactions, neural connectivity etc etc at that time- photograph of a human consciousness praps?

It's possible, but we don't know at the minute, so I think for Truxta to claim bollocks is a bit off here.

 

[TruXta]

Debunk by proof, that's a new logic I've not come across before.

0/10 for reading comprehension mate.

 

[TruXta]

It's possible, but we don't know at the minute, so I think for Truxta to claim bollocks is a bit off here.

It's possible? How?

 

[Fez909]

Not a chance. For all the advancements made, how many go into production and make a difference? Not many. There are proportionally more bikes on the roads to day than 50 years ago. Corrugated iron is still one of the most important construction elements world-wide. We still use engines that are more alike than unlike the ones made 100 years ago.

Read Shock of the Old, great little book on how old tech is still more popular, and in many cases better than new tech.

I'm would never deny the value of old tech. Use the best thing for the job, init?

But in the past we didn't have the ability to, for instance, print new jawbones or transplant faces, so the old tech can't be better if it doesn't exist.

 

[Fez909]

It's possible? How?

I meant that DC's proposition is possible, not that we are able to do it.

 

[TruXta]

I meant that DC's proposition is possible, not that we are able to do it.

I know what you said. How is it even possible? How can it be possible?

I'm would never deny the value of old tech. Use the best thing for the job, init?

But in the past we didn't have the ability to, for instance, print new jawbones or transplant faces, so the old tech can't be better if it doesn't exist.

I'm not saying there's no tech advancement, I'm saying that for all the advances that have happened, there's no reason to think that a) the rate of tech dev is increasing and b) that most of these advances will have any significant kind of impact. Great, we can grow tracheae in test-tubes. We still can't cure malaria.

 

[stuff_it]

The Singularity, for those who don't know, is a point in time where human intelligence is 'beaten' by the combination of man and machine (or perhaps just machine?). Once this happens we don't know what is likely to come out of it. It could be that we are suddenly able to solve a lot of the problems where solutions have so far eluded us, and we'll live in a technological utopia. It may be that this will be the end of humans, and it'll be a crushing dystopia. It's impossible to predict because, by definition, it's outside of our understanding.

The rate of change of technological advancement is increasing all the time, and I think it'd be interesting to keep track of what's going on to see where we are in terms of distance from the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous person associated with the term and he reckons it'll happen in 2045. Seems a good bet, to me.

The relevant fields are AI/machine learning, biology, human computer interaction, etc. If you spot anything relevant, post it up!

I spotted this in the news today: Rats Given 6th Sense - Rats have had implants put into their brains which allows them to use parts of the brain used for one thing (touch in this instance) to perform another task (sensing infrared light) which is a first for adult animals.

I for one welcome our new rodent overlords.

 

[Fez909]

I know what you said. How is it even possible? How can it be possible?

I don't think you're understanding what I said, though. I'm not saying it definitely IS possible. I'm saying it's a question we don't know the answer to yet. For you to say it is definitely impossible is a bigger claim, IMO.

I'm not saying there's no tech advancement, I'm saying that for all the advances that have happened, there's no reason to think that a) the rate of tech dev is increasing and b) that most of these advances will have any significant kind of impact. Great, we can grow tracheae in test-tubes. We still can't cure malaria.

Malaria might be about to be cured

 

[TruXta]

I don't think you're understanding what I said, though. I'm not saying it definitely IS possible. I'm saying it's a question we don't know the answer to yet. For you to say it is definitely impossible is a bigger claim, IMO.

Malaria might be about to be cured

It might be a bigger claim, but based on current knowledge it's simply impossible. Why? Because there is no such thing as a mind state that can in any way be said to represent, emulate or simulate a mind, whichever way it's copied, uploaded, anayzed and what not. It's a confusion that I think stems from old-school dualism - that there is such as thing as "me", an essence of my mind, that can be captured and transferred to another shell. Minds are social, scaffolded, emergent, embodied and extended. If you want to copy my mind you'd need to copy my body, my house, my belongings, where I live, where I work and so on and so forth.

 

[Fez909]

It might be a bigger claim, but based on current knowledge it's simply impossible. Why? Because there is no such thing as a mind state that can in any way be said to represent, emulate or simulate a mind, whichever way it's copied, uploaded, anayzed and what not. It's a confusion that I think stems from old-school dualism - that there is such as thing as "me", an essence of my mind, that can be captured and transferred to another shell. Minds are social, scaffolded, emergent, embodied and extended. If you want to copy my mind you'd need to copy my body, my house, my belongings, where I live, where I work and so on and so forth.

Fair enough, argue against it all you want. I never claimed it possible anyway. I said up front we don't know if it is.

 

[DotCommunist]

well the'post-humans' in Alistair Reynolds Demarchist society underwent an uploading procedure that destroyed the physical brain, turned it to grey mush cos the scanning invasive mapped everything so fast it left the actual meat looking like the filling for a fay bentos pie.

Thats sci fi though, and although Alistair is an astronomer who worked for the european space agency he isn't an authority on the nature of human cognitive ability.

Thats the other one of course- ifyou uploaded a snapshot of a human mind into a virtual environment how would you tell if it wasn't just very very convincing software- I don't know how many of you have played with turing toys but they normally give themselves away within 12 exchanges. I mean glaring errors- you know its a toy before you start talking to it.


once again we are down to the definition of consciousness, and emergent intelligence.


So I'll get my 'dolphins need bootstrapping cos I recon they are two thirds towards third stage reasoning' post in now

 

[DotCommunist]

It might be a bigger claim, but based on current knowledge it's simply impossible. Why? Because there is no such thing as a mind state that can in any way be said to represent, emulate or simulate a mind, whichever way it's copied, uploaded, anayzed and what not. It's a confusion that I think stems from old-school dualism - that there is such as thing as "me", an essence of my mind, that can be captured and transferred to another shell. Minds are social, scaffolded, emergent, embodied and extended. If you want to copy my mind you'd need to copy my body, my house, my belongings, where I live, where I work and so on and so forth.

theres nothing to say that a suitable virtual environs could not mimic that enough for a mind to exist within it. While slowly going mental as it realises some wanker actually stuck it in a virtual cage

 

[Fez909]

We may find out whether it is possible soon anyway.

 

[Crispy]

So, what you do is you build a nanomachine/computer that sits alongside a neuron in the brain and syncs its behaviour with that neuron, connecting via the same synapses etc. Then, when it's all bedded in, it kills the original neuron and takes over. Repeat x100 billion. Pause. Copy. Embed in simulation. Unpause. SIMPLE.

 

[TruXta]

theres nothing to say that a suitable virtual environs could not mimic that enough for a mind to exist within it. While slowly going mental as it realises some wanker actually stuck it in a virtual cage

Maybe, but money is on it never happening.