Lambeth local elections 2010 thread

[se5]

I think it is time for thread about the Lambeth local elections to be held on 6 May 2010. I know there is one elsewhere in the Brixton section (see http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=283864) but that was started more than a year ago.

I got my polling card in the post today so am definitely registered to vote so bring it on

If you are not registered to vote you have until 5pm on 20 April to do so - download the form on the Lambeth website - http://www.lambeth.gov.uk/Services/...yElections/ElectionsVoting/RegisterToVote.htm and send it off. If you're going to be away you have until 20 April to register for a postal vote and until 27 April to register for a proxy vote.

In 2006 the results of the election were Labour: 39 seats, Liberal Democrats: 17 seats, Conservatives: 6 seats and Green:1 - since then Labour have lost one seat to the Lib Dems and retained one seat in byelections. Individual ward results are at http://www.lambeth.gov.uk/NR/rdonly...E52330ADFAAA/0/LambethElectionResults2006.pdf or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambeth_Council_election,_2006

For what its worth I think what I said on the other thread a year or so ago still remains - Labour will retain control and may even gain the odd seat with the Lib Dems squeezed because of increased popularity of the Conservatives. I think the Greens may also gain the odd seat but this is not guaranteed and they may in fact lose all their seats.

What do others think?

 

[se5]

And Labour have unveiled their manifesto - see http://www.lambethlabour.com/?p=337

 

[lang rabbie]

Assuming that the General Election is on the same day, then turnout is likely to be higher, with a lot of people turning out who will mostly vote on national issues in both polls.

That might just be enough to save Labour's bacon in a few wards that they would otherwise lose on a normal local turnout on local issues such as the disastrous transfer of housing to Lambeth Living, and the ongoing fiasco of closed swimming pools and other stalled "regeneration" projects.

However, overall I still expect Labour to lose seats to both the Lib Dems and to the Tories.

The Greens need to pull their fingers out and deliver some recycled literature in Herne Hill if they are to hold onto that seat and gain the other two. I fear a large swathe of the anti-Labour protest vote in that ward will otherwise go Tory!

 

[malice]

I've had a green leaflet on Brixton Hill, and it looks like they're focusing on there (as well as Herne Hill maybe)?

 

[charcol]

Assuming that the General Election is on the same day, then turnout is likely to be higher, with a lot of people turning out who will mostly vote on national issues in both polls.

That might just be enough to save Labour's bacon in a few wards that they would otherwise lose on a normal local turnout on local issues such as the disastrous transfer of housing to Lambeth Living, and the ongoing fiasco of closed swimming pools and other stalled "regeneration" projects.

However, overall I still expect Labour to lose seats to both the Lib Dems and to the Tories.

The Greens need to pull their fingers out and deliver some recycled literature in Herne Hill if they are to hold onto that seat and gain the other two. I fear a large swathe of the anti-Labour protest vote in that ward will otherwise go Tory!

I would agree with all that, although to slightly complicate matters the Lib Dems are vulnerable to Labour in Oval. The same is true for the Tories with Labour in Gipsy Hill.

Now, if the Greens put up a full slate of 3 candidates in all wards that could make things interesting. In the past they have only done this in stronger areas such as Coldharbour and Herne Hill, but having a General Election on the same day might change that.

 

[ericjarvis]

No sign of them managing a last minute deal with the TMOs (tenants management organisations) still in dispute about allowances. So I can see rather a large number of votes going Green in Coldharbour if the Greens pick up on it.

When you have a 400 household estate feeling they've been ripped off and getting angry about it, you can end up with a fairly busy polling station. In this case it's an estate that has been ripped off to the tune of well over two million quid over the last couple of years. That's rent money, and goverment money specifically allocated to the estate, that have been taken away and used to shore up Lambeth Living's overspending. It's not something that is going to get forgiven easily.

The Lib Dems won't be able to take advantage, as all they've managed to do is stir up trouble rather than actually get anything fixed. So any green or red party that wants to take the initiative in mobilising is likely to do rather well.

 

[ajdown]

I fear a large swathe of the anti-Labour protest vote in that ward will otherwise go Tory!

Would you rather it went BNP instead of Tory then?

I'd be happy with anything except Labour staying in, because overall they've fucked up Lambeth, and the country generally. Hearing Tony Blair rolled out to say that Gordon Brown "provided strong leadership when the country needed it" completely failed to recognise the fact that it was their fuck-ups in the first place that put the country in the mess that it's in.

 

[Tricky Skills]

I've really no idea which way my ward, The Oval, will vote. The LibDems have done a reasonable job here. The three councillors focus on micro local matters, such as litter and street signs. They always respond, and fix, my requests.

Nu Labour has a young team around here, who so far have been anonymous. This seems to be the opposite approach of other Nu Labour teams around the borough, who have implemented a huge online campaign.

This has given the party a strong profile in the borough, but I'm not sure if this will translate to votes. There is a big difference in making yourself heard and blatant mudslinging.

Nu Labour's record in Lambeth over the past four years is mixed. Housing has been a disaster, only disguised by the complete meltdown of the failed leisure policy.

Timing is crucial here - weeks ahead of the election, and Future Clapham is finally happening, as well as the agreement on Streatham Hub (although major, major planning hurdles regarding the temporary provision still need to be negotiated.)

We also need to keep a close check on the Nu Labour manifesto pledge of "free swimming for residents," especially so with Keep Clapham Swimming still viewed as an issue of betrayal around here.

The John Lewis model of local government is just a joke. It delivered the front page Guardian headline, did the PR job, but beneath the pledges is nothing but an empty vacuum of political spin. This more or less sums up Nu Labour in Lambeth over the past four years.

Would a LibDem / Tory coalition manage any better? I remain to be convinced.

 

[lang rabbie]

Would you rather it went BNP instead of Tory then?

Merely sentimentality on my part - I spent too much of my life in the early 90s getting rid of deadbeat Thatcherite Tory councillors in Lambeth to welcome a Conservative revival.

However, I should add that the more independent minded among Lambeth's Tory councillors have been better "small l" liberals than one or two eco-Nazis who have passed through the ranks of Lambeth Green party in the last twenty years.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

I live in Vassall Ward and it was pretty close between Labour and Lib Dem last time, but Labour won all three seats. (The greens didnt stand here in 2006 and the Tories and Respect were way down.) Then a Lib Dem got in through a by-election about two years ago - one the Labour councillors Liz Atkinson sadly died. The Lib Dems are pretty active in terms of regularly shoving leaflets through your door and you rarely hear anything from Labour (until recently when a pre-election glossy arrived) so I could see the Lib Dems taking all three seats this time.

 

[netbob]

I'm still getting very few (compared to other parts of the country) leaflets on http://www.thestraightchoice.org for this neck of the woods. Anyone had any they would care to upload?

 

[Brixton Hatter]

I'm still getting very few (compared to other parts of the country) leaflets on http://www.thestraightchoice.org for this neck of the woods. Anyone had any they would care to upload?

Had a few - one from Lab, one from Lib Dem - but all in the bin now

By the way, we've had a leaflet from the Lib Dems promoting Jonathan Mitchell as their parliamentary candidate for Dulwich & West Norwood......but unfortunately for the Lib Dems we're in Vauxhall!

Quite how they expect to win the seat when they can't even deliver the leaflet to the right place is damn amusing.

 

[Tricky Skills]

Nothing yet from Labour in the Oval ward. I think priorities for one of the candidates is down in East Hampshire.

 

[Mairead]

Had a few - one from Lab, one from Lib Dem - but all in the bin now

By the way, we've had a leaflet from the Lib Dems promoting Jonathan Mitchell as their parliamentary candidate for Dulwich & West Norwood......but unfortunately for the Lib Dems we're in Vauxhall!

Quite how they expect to win the seat when they can't even deliver the leaflet to the right place is damn amusing.

Are you sure? I live in the centre of Brixton and due to the Boundary changes it looks like I'm moving from Vauxhall to Dulwich and West Norwood.

 

[colacubes]

Are you sure? I live in the centre of Brixton and due to the Boundary changes it looks like I'm moving from Vauxhall to Dulwich and West Norwood.

Yep. We're Coldharbour ward and we're part of Dulwich & West Norwood from this election. I'm not sure whether it's the whole ward or not.

 

[Mairead]

Boundary Changes

You can check your constituency here:

http://www.election-maps.co.uk/index.jsp

 

[se5]

Yep. We're Coldharbour ward and we're part of Dulwich & West Norwood from this election. I'm not sure whether it's the whole ward or not.

Yes fairly sure it is the whole ward - see http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/dulwichandwestnorwood. I think before Coldharbour Ward was split between Vauxhall and Dulwich which I imagine resulted in confusion for the voters/canvassers

 

[se5]

Nothing yet from Labour in the Oval ward. I think priorities for one of the candidates is down in East Hampshire.

Yes what a truly great ambassador for the Labour Party in Oval and Lambeth!

One of the other candidates Karim Pallant also has aspirations in other places, he used to be Chair of Labour Students and certainly used to work for the Labour Party. He is one of those youthful political types that have never had a proper job.

Still I get the impression having spoken to a Labour person I know that they dont expect to win there so it will go down on their CVs as a heroic attempt at reducing the Lib Dems' majority, probably worse thing that would happen to them is they are elected and have to get involved in the daily grind of being a councillor!

 

[Tricky Skills]

It's certainly a squeaky clean Nu Labour list of candidates that are standing at The Oval / East Hampshire.

As well as the career politician (based in Herne Hill, PPC for East Hampshire, fallback of representing little people at The Oval,) Karim Palant crops up as featuring heavily with the Oxford University Labour Club, but little experience in Lambeth (OK, no experience in Lambeth.)

Jack Hopkins has been tipped as "a future Labour leader" and lists his hero as "Neil Kinnock."

Nu Labour was only 300 votes or so short of taking my Oval ward back in 2006. The LibDems need to retain their three councillors if they have any ambitions of regaining the Council.

I'm not sure if the Nu Labour careerists around my patch are a signal of the young, thrusting intent of Lambeth Labour, or just work experience kids having a bit of a beano.

 

[netbob]

I've prodded a mate who has a full list of candidates to see if they can replicate this for the whole country with some clever programming. I bet this happens a lot - not a problem so long as they are upfront, but generally they are not (as in this case).

 

[lang rabbie]

DULWICH AND WEST NORWOOD BOROUGH CONSTITUENCY (66,856). Five wards
of the London Borough of Lambeth:- Coldharbour, Gipsy Hill, Herne Hill, Knight’s Hill, Thurlow
Park; three wards of the London Borough of Southwark:- College, East Dulwich, Village.

STREATHAM BOROUGH CONSTITUENCY (69,355). Eight wards of the London Borough
of Lambeth:- Brixton Hill, Clapham Common, St Leonard’s, Streatham Hill, Streatham South,
Streatham Wells, Thornton, Tulse Hill.

VAUXHALL BOROUGH CONSTITUENCY (65,759). Eight wards of the London Borough of
Lambeth:- Bishop’s, Clapham Town, Ferndale, Larkhall, Oval, Prince’s, Stockwell, Vassall.

The original boundary commission report on Lambeth and Southwark was way back in 2002 shortly after the new wards came into being. However, the Labour party managed to keep disputes going in a few seats in a few seats in other parts of the country for so long that that the Parliamentary boundary changes didn't come into effect at the 2005 election and have had to wait until this time round.

ETA: Ordnance survey map of the constituency boundaries at page 69 (page 75 of pdf) of this document

 

[Tricky Skills]

I've prodded a mate who has a full list of candidates to see if they can replicate this for the whole country with some clever programming. I bet this happens a lot - not a problem so long as they are upfront, but generally they are not (as in this case).

Wonderful. It would be great to see some data as to how widespread this dual candidacy is.

As long as politicians are transparent about this, then I see no problem. I haven't had any literature from Lambeth Labour, so I had no way of knowing if Jane Edbrooke has declared her Parliamentary interest down in East Hampshire.

I wonder if she is letting the good people of East Hampshire know about her "commitment" to Lambeth?

 

[se5]

Wonderful. It would be great to see some data as to how widespread this dual candidacy is.

As long as politicians are transparent about this, then I see no problem. I haven't had any literature from Lambeth Labour, so I had no way of knowing if Jane Edbrooke has declared her Parliamentary interest down in East Hampshire.

I wonder if she is letting the good people of East Hampshire know about her "commitment" to Lambeth?

Another things that leaves me with questions is people who hold several elected positions simultaneously - it seems to be quite common, for example the Lib Dem challenger in Vauxhall constituency Caroline Pidgeon is a London-wide list member of the London Assembly and a Southwark Councillor.

I know such roles are perhaps complementary but surely her doing two roles isnt as good as two people. This is also true of Jenny Jones who is a Green member of the London Assembly and Southwark Councillor.

It also occurs at the national level where people are members of the House of Commons and the Scottish/Welsh Assembly at the same time, some Northern Ireland MPs I believe are/were MPs, members of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Members of the European Parliament all at the same time. Surely all of these jobs are full time positions in their own right ?

 

[se5]

My first spots of the two horse race in this campaign!

That well known feature of political leaflets - the two horse race - I see is still in play.

We today received a leaflet from the Liberal Democrats in my ward claiming that it is two horse race and only the Lib Dems can beat Labour here. They cited figures showing Labour on 44%, the Lib Dems on 35% and the Conservatives on 11% (taken from the 2006 local elections)

Meanwhile the local Labour Party are claiming that it is a two horse race and that only Labour can beat the Tories - no exact figures shown but graph here - they are presumably showing figures from the main Ken v Boris bout of two years ago. Just shows the beauty of statistics - they can be made to show anything you want!

 

[netbob]

My first spots of the two horse race in this campaign!

We today received a leaflet from the Liberal Democrats in my ward claiming that it is two horse race and only the Lib Dems can beat Labour here. They cited figures showing Labour on 44%, the Lib Dems on 35% and the Conservatives on 11% (taken from the 2006 local elections)

Any chance you can upload it to http://www.thestraightchoice.org/

 

[Brixton Hatter]

Thanks for the info on boundary changes - I didn't realise they were being redrawn. However, where I live in Vassall ward remains in Vauxhall, so still a bit of confusion from the Lib Dems.

I've had the same leaflets that se5 has had from the Lib dems claiming only they can beat Labour. (They're probably right and I can see them taking all three seats.) I'll put them up on that site memespring if I get any more - they're pretty basic stuff, treating the voters like idiots: "LABOUR WILL CLOSE THE LIBRARY - ONLY THE LIB DEMS REALLY CARE..." type of stuff.

 

[co-op]

Meanwhile the local Labour Party are claiming that it is a two horse race and that only Labour can beat the Tories - no exact figures shown but graph here - they are presumably showing figures from the main Ken v Boris bout of two years ago. Just shows the beauty of statistics - they can be made to show anything you want!

To be fair to the Labour Party they do cite the source as being from the London mayoral election, but that's still absolute shite when it comes to ward results; the lib-dems are clearly the main competition to Labour there and Steve Bradley (who won the by-election for the LDs a couple of years ago) seems popular enough to win again. I live next door in Stockwell ward and have quite a few friends in Vassall, and they speak well of him.

 

[Tricky Skills]

I don't know much about the effectiveness of Cllr Bradley as a politician, but he is the one LibDem that the Nu Labour lot seem to fear. He is constantly heckled whenever he speaks at full meetings - a sure sign that the Nu Labour lot are weary of his political talents.

 

[lang rabbie]

Another things that leaves me with questions is people who hold several elected positions simultaneously - it seems to be quite common, for example the Lib Dem challenger in Vauxhall constituency Caroline Pidgeon is a London-wide list member of the London Assembly and a Southwark Councillor.

To be fair to her, Caroline isn't standing again in Southwark:

All change at the town hall: tributes to SE1 councillors standing down

 

[Tricky Skills]

I've written an overview of the Lambeth local, and national picture for Londonist. Lambeth politics is lively, if not always productive.