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IRAS satellite potential collision (29Jan2020)

2hats

Dust.
The, now retired, IR astronomical observatory satellite IRAS is at serious risk of collision this evening with another satellite. It and the satellite GGSE 4 (aka POPPY 5B, a defunct ELINT spy satellite) are expected to pass within 10-90 metres of each other at 23:39:35UTC today over the NE US. GGSE 4 has three 18 metre long booms on it...
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Two passes over the UK in the early hours of Thursday morning following the potential event, though it might well be cloudy (sky views from south central UK). If there is debris, then the second pass viewed through binoculars from a dark sky location might be interesting.
IRAS_p1.png IRAS_p2.png
 
Any one taking bets as to the outcome ?

There is far too much junk floating around up there, and a collision is only going to generate even more "loose" bits - plus many tiny fragments - to become an increased hazard to navigation.
 
Impact likelihood now up to 1 in 20 with a 12 metre miss distance (note the 18 metre booms).
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e2a: If they collide, about 900km up they should be in sunlight, so could be interesting in a pair of binoculars for anyone in the NE US.
 
Before or after we sort out the amount of rubbish sailing around in the oceans? :D (facetious question, I do appreciate that)


After the required technology and preventative behaviours have been developed for both scenarios - so I think the oceans (& land) solutions will get found and enacted first. They are probably the more pressing, I agree, but less "sexy" than "space".
 
How's it going with that space hoover thing they're developing.
Gonna need it sooner or later...
 
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