Fusion may be 100 years away

[existentialist]

government funding should go towards enabling innovation rather than moonshotting

It's a nice thought...

Trouble is, governments usually want instant results, and don't tend to enthusiastically throw themselves into high(er) risk long term projects.

 

[NoXion]

government funding should go towards enabling innovation rather than moonshotting

Both big projects like ITER and the little start-ups like Helion have a role to play in developing what may very well be the most important and impactful energy source we could develop. We would not even have this recent rash of new fusion projects were it not for the groundwork laid down previously. Conversely, one of the new guys may be onto something.

 

[weltweit]

I read the engineer daily updates and there are plenty of fusion related stories, improved magnets, cheaper tokamac, etc etc .. I am feeling quite bullish that it might happen in my lifetime.

However how it goes from that to being abundant energy for everyone, I suspect the people that finally come up with it will want to make a good profit on their work.

 

[paul mckenna]

Both big projects like ITER and the little start-ups like Helion have a role to play in developing what may very well be the most important and impactful energy source we could develop. We would not even have this recent rash of new fusion projects were it not for the groundwork laid down previously. Conversely, one of the new guys may be onto something.

I know the payoff is immense just have no faith in big government projects. Better with a DARPA style ecosystem

 

[two sheds]

I read the engineer daily updates and there are plenty of fusion related stories, improved magnets, cheaper tokamac, etc etc .. I am feeling quite bullish that it might happen in my lifetime.

However how it goes from that to being abundant energy for everyone, I suspect the people that finally come up with it will want to make a good profit on their work.

Electricity too cheap to meter

would love to see fusion though

 

[Crispy]

Great overview of all the big players in the race:

The chase for fusion energy

An emerging industry of nuclear-fusion firms promises to have commercial reactors ready in the next decade.

www.nature.com

 

[CNT36]

​

Interesting timeline though the accompanying article isn't convinced they'll be able to stick to it.
ETA - I t won't C+P nice but is near end of article.

 

[teqniq]

bit of interesting maybe good news:

Major breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy

A lab in Oxfordshire takes a big step towards harnessing the energy source of the stars.

www.bbc.com

 

[Crispy]

It's encouraging, but still all part of the ITER behemoth.

 

[Santino]

archive.ph

US government scientists have made a breakthrough in the pursuit of limitless, zero-carbon power by achieving a net energy gain in a fusion reaction for the first time, according to three people with knowledge of preliminary results from a recent experiment.
Physicists have since the 1950s sought to harness the fusion reaction that powers the sun, but no group had been able to produce more energy from the reaction than it consumes — a milestone known as net energy gain or target gain, which would help prove the process could provide a reliable, abundant alternative to fossil fuels and conventional nuclear energy.
The federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory(opens a new window) in California, which uses a process called inertial confinement fusion that involves bombarding a tiny pellet of hydrogen plasma with the world’s biggest laser, had achieved net energy gain in a fusion experiment in the past two weeks, the people said.
Although many scientists believe fusion power stations are still decades away, the technology’s potential is hard to ignore. Fusion reactions emit no carbon, produce no long-lived radioactive waste and a small cup of the hydrogen fuel could theoretically power a house for hundreds of years.
The US breakthrough comes as the world wrestles with high energy prices and the need to rapidly move away from burning fossil fuels to stop average global temperatures reaching dangerous levels. Through the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration is ploughing almost $370bn into new subsidies for low-carbon energy in an effort to slash emissions and win a global race for next-generation clean tech.
The fusion reaction at the US government facility produced about 2.5 megajoules of energy, which was about 120 per cent of the 2.1 megajoules of energy in the lasers, the people with knowledge of the results said, adding that the data was still being analysed.

 

[weltweit]

Sounds great until the:

the people with knowledge of the results said, adding that the data was still being analysed.

 

[clusterfarce]

The fusion reaction at the US government facility produced about 2.5 megajoules of energy, which was about 120 per cent of the 2.1 megajoules of energy in the lasers, the people with knowledge of the results said, adding that the data was still being analysed.

There tends to be a lot of fudging around what counts as energy in and energy out and this kind of result has been announced a few times, including a high profile version last year.
AIP have a long article on these energy breakeven points

Cookie Absent

 

[ska invita]

last thing i heard on this (this year) the scientist talking head was saying fusion is coming this century and it will be amazing, but not in time to stop runaway climate change (based on current projections), so don't count on it to save the day...

 

[clusterfarce]

but not in time to stop runaway climate change (based on current projections), so don't count on it to save the day...

There are no "current projections" showing "runaway climate change".

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.

www.nature.com

Happily — and that’s a word we climatologists rarely get to use — the world imagined in RCP8.5 is one that, in our view, becomes increasingly implausible with every passing year5. Emission pathways to get to RCP8.5 generally require an unprecedented fivefold increase in coal use by the end of the century, an amount larger than some estimates of recoverable coal reserves6. It is thought that global coal use peaked in 2013, and although increases are still possible, many energy forecasts expect it to flatline over the next few decades7. Furthermore, the falling cost of clean energy sources is a trend that is unlikely to reverse, even in the absence of new climate policies7.

Assessment of current policies suggests that the world is on course for around 3 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century — still a catastrophic outcome, but a long way from 5 °C7,8. We cannot settle for 3 °C; nor should we dismiss progress.

Discounting new commitments made since this paper was published we are headed to the mid predictions.
If people meet their commitments then even below 2C might be on the cards.
Fusion will need to compete on costs with solar plus storage in the coming decades (many decades from now).
Not much is being spent on fusion so there is nothing really to moan about. Nice someone is looking at it, but will not be relevant in any of our lifetimes.

 

[ska invita]

There are no "current projections" showing "runaway climate change".

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.

www.nature.com

Discounting new commitments made since this paper was published we are headed to the mid predictions.
If people meet their commitments then even below 2C might be on the cards.

Fusion will need to compete on costs with solar plus storage in the coming decades (many decades from now).
Not much is being spent on fusion so there is nothing really to moan about. Nice someone is looking at it, but will not be relevant in any of our lifetimes.

"runwaway" isnt a scientifically meaningful term, i shouldn't have used it, but 2c is massively hopeful, and there are many 'tipping points' and feedback loops waiting for us. Anyhow this is not the thread for that conversation

 

[Crispy]

This latest news is from the NIF. The NIF was built to do experiments that can substitute for nuclear weapons testing. There is no clear route with this method to a viable power plant, and there likely never will be. It's exciting, and a tremendous technical achievement, mind you.

Keep your eyes on the little guys. Helion, Tokamak Energy, Commonwealth Fusion. They're not so little, with some pretty big investment figures being thrown around. They're all working at a much smaller scale than the NIF or ITER, thanks to modern superconductors allowing much stronger magnets. I'm hopeful

 

[UnderOpenSky]

It was pretty exciting news none the less. I wonder if we'll see powerplants in our lifetime that produce electricity more cheaply then any of the alternatives and what the implications of that will be?

 

[weltweit]

I wonder if it will be like Roger Bannister and the 4 minute mile, no one could do it for years and suddenly loads did it. Because there are a number of projects at the moment looking promising.

 

[Santino]

Breakthrough in nuclear fusion energy announced

US researchers have overcome a major barrier to achieving low-carbon nuclear fusion.

www.bbc.co.uk

BBC report which contains this confusing sentence:

And although the experiment got more energy out than the laser put in, this did not include the energy needed to make the lasers work - which was far greater that the amount of energy the hydrogen produced.

 

[clusterfarce]

 

[weltweit]

Breakthrough in nuclear fusion energy announced

US researchers have overcome a major barrier to achieving low-carbon nuclear fusion.

www.bbc.co.uk

BBC report which contains this confusing sentence:

Yes

And although the experiment got more energy out than the laser put in, this did not include the energy needed to make the lasers work - which was far greater than the amount of energy the hydrogen produced.

Seems quite jarring. Did they produce more energy than was used or not? This sentence would suggest not.

 

[paul mckenna]

Estimates still saying 30-50 years but one thing that holds truest in this exponential age is that people overestimate advances in the short term but underestimate in the longer term.

If fusion is achieved around the same time as AGI then rate of innovation is just gonna explode

 

[Crispy]

Yes

Seems quite jarring. Did they produce more energy than was used or not? This sentence would suggest not.

You need, say, a billion gigajoules to charge the laser, but only a thousand gigajoules of laser light comes out the pointy end. The rest is wasted as heat. It's the laser light energy that was less than the fusion output. So yeah, creative accounting basically.

 

[weltweit]

You need, say, a billion gigajoules to charge the laser, but only a thousand gigajoules of laser light comes out the pointy end. The rest is wasted as heat. It's the laser light energy that was less than the fusion output. So yeah, creative accounting basically.

A bit disappointing then, I suppose if they continued the fusion not having to charge the laser again? would that have produced a lasting gain?

 

[Crispy]

A bit disappointing then, I suppose if they continued the fusion not having to charge the laser again? would that have produced a lasting gain?

Not with this method. They use a precision engineered gold plated capsule about 1cm long, with a tiny amount of fuel in the centre, which is dropped into the chamber. Exactly as it reaches the centre, the laser fires, evaporating the capsule and compressing the fuel. To make more energy, you need to drop another capsule and fire the laser again. A power station designed around this method needs a continuous supply of fuel capsules. One every couple of seconds or so. Madness.

 

[paul mckenna]

.

 

[danny la rouge]

A fusion réaction with more energy out than put in? Apologies if this article has been posted elsewhere.

The tiny diamond sphere that could unlock clean power The tiny diamond sphere that could unlock clean power

“At 1:03am on Monday 5 December, scientists at the National Ignition Facility in California aimed their 192 beam laser at a cylinder containing a tiny diamond fuel capsule.

That powerful burst of laser light created immense temperatures and pressures and sparked a fusion reaction - the reaction which powers the sun.

The National Ignition Facility (NIF), part of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), had done such experiments before, but this time the energy that came out of the reaction, was more than the laser power used to trigger it.”

 

[NoXion]

Potentially important progress has been made with regards to magnetic confinement nuclear fusion:

Scientists May Have Tamed Fusion’s #1 Nemesis

A breakthrough in plasma control brings us a step closer to safe, limitless power.

www.popularmechanics.com

• The biggest problem at the heart of nuclear fusion is how to contain ultra-hot plasma for long enough to sustain energy-producing reactions.
• One of the big hurdles for containing plasma is eliminating “tearing mode”—instabilities where magnetic field lines containing plasma break.
• Now, researchers from Princeton University and the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) have trained an AI to notice these “tearing mode” plasma disruptions before they happen and keep the fusion reaction stable.

Next on the list:

"But containing plasma in real-time is only one piece of the fusion puzzle. Engineers, for example, still need to develop new materials capable of withstanding the immense heat of fusion for not just minutes, hours, or days, but years if the technology has any hope of one day powering homes across the world. "

 

[BigTom]

This latest news is from the NIF. The NIF was built to do experiments that can substitute for nuclear weapons testing. There is no clear route with this method to a viable power plant, and there likely never will be. It's exciting, and a tremendous technical achievement, mind you.

Keep your eyes on the little guys. Helion, Tokamak Energy, Commonwealth Fusion. They're not so little, with some pretty big investment figures being thrown around. They're all working at a much smaller scale than the NIF or ITER, thanks to modern superconductors allowing much stronger magnets. I'm hopeful

MIT spinout Commonwealth Fusion Systems unveils plans for the world’s first fusion power plant

MIT spinout Commonwealth Fusion Systems has announced plans to build the world’s first grid-scale fusion power plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia.

news.mit.edu

Commonwealth Fusion Systems unveils plans for the world’s first fusion power plant​

The new fusion power plant, named ARC, is expected to come online in the early 2030s and generate about 400 megawatts of clean, carbon-free electricity — enough energy to power large industrial sites or about 150,000 homes.

 

[Crispy]

Very interesting! Now let's see how much it costs... As mentioned previously on this thread, the cost of solar&batteries continues to plummet.