Oh we are doing the full on flash debate again, thought we had already done this to death but I dont mind repeating myself endlessly
so here goes...
I think the reason Apple dont go for flash on these mobile devices is just about every reason anyone can think of.
Performance, multitouch, battery, security, protecting their app-store revenue, getting developers to use the Apple developers tools (& buy mac computers as a result), and possibly some previous souring of the relationship between Apple and Adobe. I think its fair to have mixed feelings about some of these explanations, but again it comes down to Apple thinking that their winning formula is to craft the user experience to a very specific design, and whilst many users could be happy with flash even if it didnt perform amazingly well, anything better than nothing, thats not how Apple tend to work.
Whatever Adobe claim, the Flash experience on mobile devices up till very recently has been less than wonderful. Im slightly out of date but I suspect this is not really going to change until the feature-full version of flash for mobile devices becomes mature. One of the good things that come come from Apples stance is if it encourages others to do better.
Have Adobe got a decent multitouch implementation for flash yet?
From previous posts it should be clear that I want the reliance on flash for browser-based video to erode, and I believe it will because in many instances the transition is easy. The html5 video alternative is not without its teething problems and flaws, but it can provide a better user experience on certain devices. Its not at all hard to imagine that the transition will for many people be almost un-noticable, with sites simply serving the h264 video via html5 for some browsers/devices, and wrapping the same h264 video in flash for others. Its not very hard for sites to do this. Where it is trickier is with the addons they have put in their flash video players, eg adverts or additional functionality. This can mostly also be done with html5 & javascript but it will take a little while for equivalent functionality to be reengineered.
Games and other stuff will be much harder, and whilst browser technologies such as WebGL will probably be better for games than flash is, given time, the development tools and services to make WebGL, html5, canvas & javascript a joy for developers of all levels are not with us yet by a long-shot. There are also quite a lot of flash developers out there who arent going to be able to transition to alternatives without quite a learning curve, even once some of the alternative tech has matured. Adobe have provided a way for them to turn their existing flash games into native iphone apps but this does not help the 'flash game/app embedded in a web page' on devices like the ipad at all.
Its a shame Microsoft couldnt help themselves but to try to launch their own flash alternative, silverlight, and some pretty rich development tools to author that stuff. It doesnt go down well in an age where Microsoft dont garner much trust, and lots of people like cross-platform web standards. So the only useful purpose Silverlight ends up serving is to give developers who are already well versed in various microsoft (& other) languages/technologies a way to develop stuff on the client-side web, and its overcome some of the issues that sites that serve protected & nonprotected video in wmv format had with working on non-windows platforms. Its still been a failure overall, the wrong era to do it in, but time will tell if they get anywhere with silverlight by making it fairly central to Windows Phone 7. Personally Id rather Microsoft had tried to copy Google than Apple in various key ways relating to standards and control freakery, but its impossible to say which approach will successfully help them to reinvent themselves and deliver really good products.
If I had the resources and the skill I would be looking at starting to make rich development tools that work in a way similar to Flash authoring software & Microsoft Expression Blend, but deliver results that use html5/css/js/canvas/webGL. This is far easier said than done at this stage, likely we will get there in the end but it could be a very long road.
My original reason for disliking flash was the large amount of electricity that is wasted by inefficient flash video playback. Adobe have made it plenty more efficient since I first developed this strong opinion, so its not quite the issue it was, and even on the mobile if Adobe can work with device/OS manufacturers on the right level then flash should be able to harness the video decoding chips present in many smartphones, as they now do to an extent with GPUs on the desktop. Still room for improvement in this regard though.