Will you vote for independence?

[SpackleFrog]

I don't want to start putting a tinfoil hat on... but given the extraordinary reaction of the establishment to the possibility of a yes vote, is anyone starting to wonder whether it may simply be ignored and drastic measures taken to ensure the UK's territorial integrity? Or at least that some discussions along those lines are taking place amongst some shadowy types?

Butchers is probably right that the No vote will hold up to an extent - whether they make it to 50% or not I'm not sure but we'll see. But yeah - obviously the vote isn't going to deliver independence, even if there is a Yes vote. I'm trying to think off the top of my head whether any other historical issue of secession has been dealt with purely by a referendum, and no use/threat of force whatsoever. At this stage I could see Yes getting 51-53% of the vote potentially - if that happens expect a fevered spin machine pointing out it would be wrong for Scotland to leave the UK when nearly half of Scots don't want to. But in a sense that doesn't matter now - Westminster is never going to convince Scottish people that they want to stay in the union. This issue won't go away, it'll keep coming back.

Quite a good piece from SPS which makes roughly the same point:

"Ironically, the SNP leadership in 2012 offered a multi-option referendum that would have included a question on more powers – a form of devolution max. This was turned down by the ConDems and Labour who arrogantly believed they could inflict a decisive defeat on the SNP and kill the threat of independence off. This colossal miscalculation has come back to haunt them with a vengeance.

As commentator and advisor to the capitalist establishment Andrew Rawnsley wrote in the Observer last weekend: “Had it been offered as a choice, I am certain there would have been a thumping majority for “devo max”. From that, I conclude this. If Scotland votes to terminate the union, a generation of Westminster politicians will have to reflect in their post-resignation memoirs on why they were so slow to see it coming and too late in shaping a response.”

Even in the event of No vote next Thursday, it’s clear that major new powers for Scotland are inevitable – demands for another referendum on independence could also follow quickly – as was the case in Quebec in the 1990’s."

http://socialistpartyscotland.org.uk/2014/09/08/10-days-can-shake-british-capitalism-foundations/

 

[Wilf]

"Ironically, the SNP leadership in 2012 offered a multi-option referendum that would have included a question on more powers – a form of devolution max. This was turned down by the ConDems and Labour who arrogantly believed they could inflict a decisive defeat on the SNP and kill the threat of independence off. This colossal miscalculation has come back to haunt them with a vengeance.

I'm sure the SNP leadership back in 2012 would be astonished at how this has unfolded.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm sure the SNP leadership back in 2012 would be astonished at how this has unfolded.

It speaks volumes about the SNP that while as far as I can see most Yes supporters want proper independence, all they've put forward is really just Devo-Max.

 

[ddraig]

oh dear, lol

 

[danny la rouge]

Well I am still firmly in the No camp but as before I don't have a vote. John Major was putting the case for a No vote on the radio this morning and I broadly agree with him, how we got into this situation is beyond me for example why was DevoMax not on the ballot paper if there had to be a ballot?

Devo Max isn't on offer. Devo-a-little-bit-more is.

Gordon Brown says what is on offer is "close to federalism". But Darling clarified that "It's not new powers - the powers have already been announced".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29099431

So the same powers that Darling couldn’t clarify in his televised debate with Salmond. The stumbling answer where the only “job creating power” he could offer was Workfare, the scheme to make unemployed people stack shelves for no wages.

Is there cross party agreement on new powers?

Ed Balls, the Labour shadow chancellor says there isn't.

http://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/news/scotland/no-cross-party-manifesto-balls-1.565515

“There will be no single cross-party manifesto on further devolution to Scotland, Ed Balls has confirmed.”

So, it's not devo max or "nearly federalism", there's no agreement on what would be offered, it won't be in the first Queen's Speech. All we have is a timetable for talks about what possible powers might be granted.

That's the level of commitment.

Why wasn't devo max on the ballot? Salmond wanted it on, because he knew it might win. Cameron didn't want it, because he knew it might win, too.

So we now have a situation where it's a choice between an independence settlement or something, maybe, we don't know what or, actually (despite the "timetable"), when.

 

[weltweit]

I think you miss my point, it was a strategic mistake not to have had devo max on the ballot paper from the start. If there is a Yes vote, it could be a costly mistake. I still think there will be a No vote but as the polls show it is likely to be too close to call, depending all on the don't knows.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think you miss my point, it was a strategic mistake not to have had devo max on the ballot paper from the start. If there is a Yes vote, it could be a costly mistake. I still think there will be a No vote but as the polls show it is likely to be too close to call, depending all on the don't knows.

No, I don't miss your point. Cameron didn't want it on the ballot paper because he didn't want to give us devo max. Had it been on the ballot paper, he'd have had to spell out the proposals. This way he can offer something that isn't devo max, get the media to call it devo max, and still not spell out exactly what it is, when we'd get it, or who would implement it.

Has it backfired? Fuck, yeah.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[weepiper]

George Square in Glasgow just now

 

[weepiper]

There is a small counter-protest:

 

[DexterTCN]

STV news: Cameron flies up...then meets some people in a financial building closed to the public, the location of which was kept secret.

He means business.

 

[Wilf]

STV news: Cameron flies up...then meets some people in a financial building closed to the public, the location of which was kept secret.

He means business.

At least he's done his bit.

 

[The Boy]

Seeing comments that suggest tonight's survation poll has No 6 points in the lead.

 

[DexterTCN]

Seeing comments that suggest tonight's survation poll has No 6 points in the lead.

Yup. Convenient.

 

[butchersapron]

Yup. Convenient.

You just don't care do you? No honour. No rigour. Just like and dislike.

 

[killer b]

Yup. Convenient.

convenient for who?

 

[DexterTCN]

convenient for who?

It can be spun as a minor positive on the day they came to visit.

 

[killer b]

do you think survation are corrupt?

 

[Flavour]

They must be sick of these fucking polls that's for sure

No details thus far on where exactly it was conducted... Hopefully just Edinburgh

 

[DexterTCN]

do you think survation are corrupt?

I don't think about them at all.

 

[Wilf]

6% lead would be in line with the last survation poll (published about 2 weeks ago).

Edit, sorry, last one was conducted about 2 weeks ago:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

 

[butchersapron]

Yes. That's how polling companies do polls.

 

[The Boy]

Yes. That's how polling companies do polls.

Nah, they just make shit up to suit their nefarious agendas.

 

[DexterTCN]

Prsecott on bbc news: if you pause it you can see he has 'better together' written on his hand.

(bbc scotland)

 

[butchersapron]

Nah, they just make shit up to suit their nefarious agendas.

You'd really think so with some of the mad shit posted recently.

 

[danny la rouge]

Seeing comments that suggest tonight's survation poll has No 6 points in the lead.

 

[The Boy]

unsupported media?

 

[danny la rouge]

unsupported media?

It's an embedded tweet. If you're on tapatalk, you get that message.

It says the early fieldwork on this poll is prior to the Yes lead YouGov.

 

[DairyQueen]

Well it is certainly not going the way of the AV referendum, the polls showed Yes collapsing. That is a positive. I guess there is still some hope if the working class get out and make their voices heard.

 

[DexterTCN]

Chief bod of BP...

Bob Dudley, the chief executive of BP, argued that long-term investment in North Sea drilling operations required “fiscal stability and certainty”.

He said: “As a major investor in Scotland, now and into the future, BP believes the future prospects for the North Sea are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the United Kingdom.”

hmmm...ok...you going to fuck off if we win then?

You maybe have other important 'UK' business to attend to?