'Clutching at the straws' as Poirot might say.
Dunno. Might be. I struggle to see Thursday's local election results as a triumph for them, though.
tbh its very difficult to make much of a judgement about the strength of their local polling as there has been no polling (that I'm aware of) specifically relating to local elections. But the fact that UKIP's national polling has been low to mid teens hints that 17%, even if that is a large underestimate of local strength, represents quite a success for them. Obviously tomorrow night's result has been extensively polled, and anything substantially south of 30% would look like an under-achievement compared to polling evidence.
Could be. I doubt it was a major reason behind many UKIP votes, although it may be behind some. Certainly 'I want to keep British soldiers out of foreign wars and UKIP are the only ones who say they want this too' is a reason for voting for them that I can respect, although whether this is a UKIP position or just a Farage position is rather unclear, given that UKIP don't actually have any policies.
Turnout at 36 per cent is lower than expected, I believe. I think this may be bad news for UKIP. I'll go out on a limb and give a number. I suspect their share of the vote tomorrow will be around 25%, putting them just second behind Labour.
The core voters, sure. Their over-50s core vote. But the softer vote - those who probably don't even agree with them much, but are pissed off with the system at the moment? I can believe that a lower than expected turnout would be disproportionately bad for UKIP - many of the disaffected but not actually right-wing bigots may have decided just not to vote at all rather than voting UKIP. To get close to 30 per cent, they need more than their core vote.
where's that 36% from?
The Independent newspaper.
It's down on last year. Even excluding London, it's down on last year. Now that could be due mainly to the fact that the cities didn't vote last year, and it is one of the striking features of UKIP's support that it's strongest in areas where there are fewest new immigrants. But nevertheless, it's not a resounding success. It indicates to me that they haven't been wildly successful in drawing votes away from Labour. It also indicates to me that most of the people who actually do have Romanians for neighbours don't agree with Farage.
I can only repeat what I said above. This year it was places with significant numbers of immigrants that were voting, and UKIP did worse. They are not extending far beyond their base of white over-50s males who have fallen on hard times.
There's a similes button?!In that case, I bet you'll struggle to see the Euro election results as a triumph for them.
EDIT - just found the similes on here.
Well, something like one.There's a similes button?!
As in the projected turn-out given in the widely touted polls showing UKIP doing better than Labour - that is what the 'I believe' bit was referring to. If the polls are to be believed, some people who said they were sure to vote in fact did not. The 36% is for the places with euro and local elections, btw. The overall turnout for the euros may be lower than that.
