The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[timoxensis]

er.... Darien Scheme and other failed attempts...not interested in a discussion of poor history with you though..

 

[Frankie Jack]

Fuck off then.

 

[danny la rouge]

Scotland was a shitty colonial power

This perspicacious insight into pre 1707 Scottish foreign policy is relevant to the here and now because why? Once shitty always shitty? And what else does that hold for? The pre 1707 Scottish colonial trading lairds wore powdered wigs. Perhaps I wear a powdered wig? And I understand many of the lairds took snuff. Perhaps I take snuff?

And that shittiness in colonial matters 300 years ago. What does it disqualify me from now, do you know? Should I put it on my CV?

 

[Frances Lengel]

If I was Scottish, I'd vote yes just to fuck the bedroom tax off.

 

[timoxensis]

This perspicacious insight into pre 1707 Scottish foreign policy is relevant to the here and now because why? Once shitty always shitty? And what else does that hold for? The pre 1707 Scottish colonial trading lairds wore powdered wigs. Perhaps I wear a powdered wig? And I understand many of the lairds took snuff. Perhaps I take snuff?

And that shittiness in colonial matters 300 years ago. What does it disqualify me from now, do you know? Should I put it on my CV?

er...if you like....you may get a good historian job at a Russel Group uni...

My point was related to this angst/whining over Scottish independence being just emotionalism and not anything matter of fact.... England/Scotland united due to convenience not mutual love or brotherhood.....Unless you want to colonise Panama and seize the Canal for Scotland, be my guest..

Fact is an advanced economy like the UK doesn't and shouldn't be exporting oil/gas en masse. To say we need Scotland in the Union for our collective benefit is not true...

Hence why I said they can go, I don't give a shit...

 

[JTG]

What's your point caller?

 

[redsquirrel]

The pre 1707 Scottish colonial trading lairds wore powdered wigs. Perhaps I wear a powdered wig? And I understand many of the lairds took snuff. Perhaps I take snuff?

You mean you don't! You've shattered my image of you Danny.

 

[danny la rouge]

er...if you like....you may get a good historian job at a Russel Group uni...

My point was related to this angst/whining over Scottish independence being just emotionalism and not anything matter of fact.... England/Scotland united due to convenience not mutual love or brotherhood.....Unless you want to colonise Panama and seize the Canal for Scotland, be my guest..

Fact is an advanced economy like the UK doesn't and shouldn't be exporting oil/gas en masse. To say we need Scotland in the Union for our collective benefit is not true...

Hence why I said they can go, I don't give a shit...

Still not sure what you're on about, really.

But I agree that people in the rUK being sad "to see the Scots go" is bizarre. We wouldn't be going anywhere. We'd simply no longer share a government. And if anyone thinks that not sharing a government precludes cultural exchange, friendship, or sense of family, then that's a sad statement on them rather than on anything else.

 

[danny la rouge]

Mind you, getting back on topic, the polling isn't looking good for the Yes campaign. There was a period in the spring where the momentum was with Yes: the gap was narrowing, and if the trends had continued, Yes was on course to overtake No by August. But the rate has slowed, and though the gap may be in single figures it's still a gap, and Yes is still consistently behind.

The dismal, dismissive, reactionary No campaign has plumbed the depths of ethnic nationalism, sowing confusion and division, and it appears to be working. To what longer term effect, we don't yet know.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Do you mind if I imagine you in a powdered wig from now on Danny?

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Mind you, getting back on topic, the polling isn't looking good for the Yes campaign. There was a period in the spring where the momentum was with Yes: the gap was narrowing, and if the trends had continued, Yes was on course to overtake No by August. But the rate has slowed, and though the gap may be in single figures it's still a gap, and Yes is still consistently behind.

The dismal, dismissive, reactionary No campaign has plumbed the depths of ethnic nationalism, sowing confusion and division, and it appears to be working. To what longer term effect, we don't yet know.

The real question for me is what happens to all the new people the RIC and the leftier bits of the Yes campaign claim to have organised? It seems that they have genuinely tapped into a pool of people who desire radical progressive social change and believe they have a chance to bring it about or at least create easier conditions for it to flourish.

It seems to me there are two dilemmas for after September.

1. The No vote wins - how to deal with disillousionment, how to convince people that it's not the end, but actually just a different position and that social change is still possible?

2. The Yes vote wins. How do RIC et al use that moment to build power that can in some way that can promote their agenda within a Scotland in which the SNP is triumphant and still at least until after the Scottish general election in 2016 presenting itself as social democratic?

In both cases from what I have seen (including speaking to RIC activists in Scotland) it seems that they are pinning all their hopes on independence in a way that precludes any real possiblilty of change as part of Britain.

 

[kebabking]

Still not sure what you're on about, really.

But I agree that people in the rUK being sad "to see the Scots go" is bizarre. We wouldn't be going anywhere. We'd simply no longer share a government. And if anyone thinks that not sharing a government precludes cultural exchange, friendship, or sense of family, then that's a sad statement on them rather than on anything else.

sorry Danny, thats either disingenuous, unimaginative, or niave.

if Scotland and the rUK are different states then the people who live in both states will have some loss of amenity - in defence for example, people in rUK will be much less well defended because their Air Defence system will stop at Berwick, rather than 200 miles north of Shetland, and the people who live in Scotland will have their protection massively reduced because, while their AD system will still extent 200 miles north of Shetland, they will have almost no capability to enfore it. both sides lose.

heres another example - i live in England, my eldest daughter lives in Scotland, she only gets to see me because a Scottish Sherriff enforces the judgement of an English Judge. moreover, going to see her is, as you can imagine, an expensive and time consuming business - if when i book hotel rooms, or pay for dinner, or buy cinema tickets or petrol, or visit the cash machine in Glasgow i have to pay a surcharge to my bank for using Scottish currency, then that may impact on my ability to afford the whole thing on such a regular basis - thus my daughter see's her father less.

would i, for example, decide to fill up in Carlisle instead of waiting till i get to Glasgow so the fuel duty and VAT goes to the rUK government instead of the Scottish Government? if i buy £45 worth of deisel in Carlisle the tax helps pay for the services i and my family recieve at home, if i buy it in Glasgow that money is lost to us.

i am by no stretch of the imagination suggesting that Scotland is going to become a failed state without westminster oversight, or that either side will be building pillboxes at Gretna, or that the relationship won't settle down to the normality thats the case between France and Belgium for example, but anyone who suggests that there will be no negative consequences of one country becoming two, even if the seperation/divorce goes smoothly, is deluding themselves.

 

[danny la rouge]

In both cases from what I have seen (including speaking to RIC activists in Scotland) it seems that they are pinning all their hopes on independence in a way that precludes any real possiblilty of change as part of Britain.

I think you're right. I think the main failing, ideologically, of RIC is that it pins its hopes on change through parliamentary activity. Westminster has failed us, so we need a different parliament. That's where the disillusionment will come from either way.

 

[danny la rouge]

would i, for example, decide to fill up in Carlisle instead of waiting till i get to Glasgow so the fuel duty and VAT goes to the rUK government instead of the Scottish Government? if i buy £45 worth of deisel in Carlisle the tax helps pay for the services i and my family recieve at home, if i buy it in Glasgow that money is lost to us.

If your notion of cultural exchange, friendship or sense of family is predicated on your petrol purchasing habits when visiting another country, then you, my friend, are the poorer for it, and I'm sorry for you.

 

[treelover]

Apparently, the 'better together' campaign launch is in Maryhill, a deprived part of Glasgow, where they say they have "growing support", is this an old unionist area?

 

[treelover]

 

[treelover]

"It is now confirmed that not only did No. 10 ask Obama to make the statement, they set up the BBC to ask the question that prompted it."... Craig Murray is (yet again) bang on the money. Why is this just allowed to happen with little or no noise? Let's ensure they know exactly how we feel on the 29th folks. I'd urge everyone who is confirmed for this to share and invite as many people as possible.

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/06/bbc-lawbreaking/

FFS, what is happening with the BBC?, its the same of course with its reporting on benefit issues, reform, its losing people who would usually defend it.

 

[agricola]

FFS, what is happening with the BBC?, its the same of course with its reporting on benefit issues, reform, its losing people who would usually defend it.

Its not that inexplicable; the BBC has a gun against its head over the licence fee, very few supporters in the wider media who are worth anything, and the main parties are either looking to do it in or - at best - are not that bothered about protecting its independence.

 

[danny la rouge]

Apparently, the 'better together' campaign launch is in Maryhill, a deprived part of Glasgow, where they say they have "growing support", is this an old unionist area?

It's a Labour area. Patricia Ferguson is constituency MSP and Ann McKechin is the MP (see her name in treelover's list of shame).

 

[William of Walworth]

Mind you, getting back on topic, the polling isn't looking good for the Yes campaign. There was a period in the spring where the momentum was with Yes: the gap was narrowing, and if the trends had continued, Yes was on course to overtake No by August. But the rate has slowed, and though the gap may be in single figures it's still a gap, and Yes is still consistently behind.

The dismal, dismissive, reactionary No campaign has plumbed the depths of ethnic nationalism, sowing confusion and division, and it appears to be working. To what longer term effect, we don't yet know.

I've been wondering about the polling too. I haven't followed recent trends as closely as you or brogdale have, but the gap looks as if it remains significant enough to make further moves towards a Yes lead look difficult. I always thought that the dismal negativity of the No campaign would put people off them more though.

I did hear one theory put though, when I was chatting with my political friends recently (none of them Scottish, but one of them Welsh!). Which is that there might be a bigger element of 'Yes'-sympathising that won't come to anything in the end -- more people than we're aware of who would consider Yes, and identify with the positives of Yes, but might vote No on the day out of uncertainty, concern about consequences etc. So perhaps negativity might be having more of an impact for more people than we'd like.

just speculating really but I'd be interested in peoples' thoughts.

 

[William of Walworth]

I voted 'Other' btw because as people might remember from the other big thread, I have very mixed feelings about what would be good for Scotland but not so much for South of the Border. But I'll let that part of the discussion lie for now, I've said enough already

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

I did hear one theory put though, when I was chatting with my political friends recently (none of them Scottish, but one of them Welsh!). Which is that there might be a bigger element of 'Yes'-sympathising that won't come to anything in the end -- more people than we're aware of who would consider Yes, and identify with the positives of Yes, but might vote No on the day out of uncertainty, concern about consequences etc. So perhaps negativity might be having more of an impact for more people than we'd like.

just speculating really but I'd be interested in peoples' thoughts.

That's a very good point, just like many people sympathise with the Greens (or the BNP for that matter) and the like but tend not to vote for them on the day as they either see it as a wasted vote or don't quite trust them to actually run stuff.

 

[weepiper]

 

[equationgirl]

It's a Labour area. Patricia Ferguson is constituency MSP and Ann McKechin is the MP (see her name in treelover's list of shame).

Ah yes Ann McKechin. She who ignores emails about Atos-related motions yet thinks nothing of claiming for the tiniest item she buys for her Pimlico flat. Expenses make interesting reading.

 

[DownwardDog]

sorry Danny, thats either disingenuous, unimaginative, or niave.

if Scotland and the rUK are different states then the people who live in both states will have some loss of amenity - in defence for example, people in rUK will be much less well defended because their Air Defence system will stop at Berwick, rather than 200 miles north of Shetland, and the people who live in Scotland will have their protection massively reduced because, while their AD system will still extent 200 miles north of Shetland, they will have almost no capability to enfore it. both sides lose.

Is this really a pressing matter? Are we expecting regimental strength Backfire incursions the morning after? The GIUK gap will almost certainly remain policed by the rUK air force anyway as it's important to NATO and the new Scottish air force is going to have nothing beyond a nugatory capacity to do anything for a very long time.

 

[DairyQueen]

kebabking - this is just hysterical nonsense.

i live in England, my eldest daughter lives in Scotland, she only gets to see me because a Scottish Sherriff enforces the judgement of an English Judge.

What?

decide to fill up in Carlisle instead of waiting till i get to Glasgow so the fuel duty and VAT goes to the rUK government instead of the Scottish Government? if i buy £45 worth of deisel in Carlisle the tax helps pay for the services i and my family recieve at home, if i buy it in Glasgow that money is lost to us.

You actually think that is important?

If your daughter is seriously thinking about voting on the referendum because of any of these rather silly things you have just thought up, then that'll be a real shame. Fundamental constitutional change in the UK or "kebabking's ability to use an ATM in Scotland without being charged a modest surcharge?"

 

[brogdale]

Smithson has a piece on the latest Survation polling showing a closing Y/N gap and a rider that appears to support the notion of an positive correlation between tory fortunes and the 'Yes' vote...

YES 39 (+2)
NO 44 (-3)
DK 17 (NC)
Without DKs YES 47 NO 53

This is one of the closest margins yet in any poll and is very much against the run of other recent polling. It will certainly give the YES campaign a boost

With some caveats...

This form of conditional voting intention question asked immediately after the standard one can be said to be leading. It is hard to frame wording that doesn’t do this. The very fact that it is being put is suggesting to respondents that this might be an issue with their referendum voting choice.

Whatever this type of finding is going to be picked on and highlighted in the coming three months. Voting YES is going to be presented as a means of avoiding a Tory government. The question is whether this will resonate enough to tip the outcome in that direction.

 

[geminisnake]

kebabking - this is just hysterical nonsense.

What?

No it's not. Not having a go but you don't seem to know about the differences in the Scottish and English legal systems re custody. A lot of English law has no jurisdiction in Scotland, so it's good for kebabking that he has got a decent Scottish judge. That judge could have just said 'tough'.

 

[DairyQueen]

How many people have been refused visitation rights based on their place of residence?

 

[timoxensis]

What's your point caller?

That we in England don't really need to care if Scotland gets independence. There's no reason I can damage us economically, and it's only emotive crap like "we're stronger together" which is the issue.