The Islamic state

[butchersapron]

The turkish military have up to now had reasonable relations with the peshmerga, they were allies against the PKK in the 90s. Think it was more likely they saw allowing KRG forces into Kobani as a longtime way of getting a friendly regional proxy a foothold. This also explains why the YPG placed strict quotas on numbers they allowed in.
Subsequently and i think directly linked to the numbers of PKK supporters that openly cheered the peshmerga on its passage through parts of turkey, (flying the PKK colours is a proscribed activity afaiw) there has been a bit of a backtracking. Almost immediately the Turkish prime minister insisted that there would be no more Peshmerga convoys allowed through turkey,adding the caveat that none had been sort.

You can bet barzani is shitting it right now as well. Last thing he needs is people with arms challenging his stitch up.

 

[coley]

Bloody turks. the day that country is let into the EU, I'm emigrating tothe USA.

Not a chance these days.

 

[kebabking]

Not a chance these days.

agreed. Turkey is about as popular as a bucket of TB infected sick at the moment - Turkey wouldn't get into NATO these days, Satan will ski to work before they join the EU.

that said, they don't want to - that ship sailed long ago, Turkey is carving out its own place in the world. for better or ill...

 

[thriller]

good.

 

[coley]

agreed. Turkey is about as popular as a bucket of TB infected sick at the moment - Turkey wouldn't get into NATO these days, Satan will ski to work before they join the EU.

that said, they don't want to - that ship sailed long ago, Turkey is carving out its own place in the world. for better or ill...

Aye, but the days of automatically recognising an insurgency as 'terrorists' purely because they are engaging a member of the NATO club are changing and by supplying the YPG with sophisticated weaponry,I think the leaders of NATO are sending Turkey a clear message.
One they should heed if they don't want to go down the route of Syria and Iraq and become the new battleground.

 

[teqniq]

Red Bull-drinking jihadists, crucifixions and air strikes: inside Raqqa, the Islamic State’s capital

 

[J Ed]

Amazed that that title didn't lead to a link to a Vice article...

 

[Patteran]

I'm struggling to understand Turkey's position. Erdogan broke off his relationship with Assad & backed the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, hoping to create a conservative Sunni alliance regionally. He's now using/allowing Daesh to attack Kurdish Rojava, undermining Kurdish aspirations, & demonstrating the need for a NATO (bankrolled) buffer zone along the Syrian border (plus perhaps hoping to provoke the PKK into breaking the shaky ceasefire, leading to carnage they can denounce as proof of Kurdish terror). He'll use this buffer zone to organise a palatable & effective opposition to Assad. Is this about right?

New Associated Press footage from inside Kobani - 'When they hear the planes, they get afraid, like donkeys'.

 

[TomUS]

When they hear the planes, they get afraid, like donkeys.


So refreshing to be able to cheer the American military for a change.

 

[coley]

I'm struggling to understand Turkey's position. Erdogan broke off his relationship with Assad & backed the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood,hoping to create a conservative Sunni alliance regionally.
Trying to understand Erdogans position,Ditto; but have you any links or info as to the above?

 

[Patteran]

I'm struggling to understand Turkey's position. Erdogan broke off his relationship with Assad & backed the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood,hoping to create a conservative Sunni alliance regionally.
Trying to understand Erdogans position,Ditto; but have you any links or info as to the above?

coley, I'm learning on my feet, I make no pretence to be an expert. I get information & analysis from this thread & other online resources. Here's the three salient points with some links from a variety of (mostly reactionary) perspectives, with a heavy disclaimer - I'm supposed to be working, I just had a quick go on the google & some of the links may be rotten nonsense.

1) Erdogan's cordial arrangement with Assad goes back to 2008 - a sample here. The switch to support for the opposition appears pragmatic & opportunistic - Assad's brutal response to the revolution will have been received negatively by Turkish citizens, & events in Egypt & Libya could have suggested Assad would fall. Interesting quote from Erdogan - 'We cannot be impartial and those who are impartial are eliminated'. (picture shows Erdogan using a Muslim Brotherhood hand sign)

2) Erdogan's support for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, & the similarities between his party & the muslim brotherhood are well documented - a sample here about general Turkish support for MB, here for Turkish support/hosting of the MB-founded Syrian National Council (in exile).

3) The idea of a regional 'Sunni Crescent', running from Cairo to Ankara via Gaza, a counterpoint to Iranian-Shia Crescent influence, has been discussed widely. Seymour Hersh discusses it as far back as 2007 - and labels it as a US-led/supported plan to support its allies Saudi & Israel who view Iran as an existential threat. There's tension within this grouping as feudal theocracy Saudi fears Turkish support for the (quasi) democratic Muslim Brotherhood. Erdogan & his influential Foreign Minister Davutoglu feature in most references to the Sunni Crescent, including this from influential neo-con/neo-liberal magazine The National Interest -

"A new Middle East is about to be born," Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently stated before the Turkish parliament that "we will be the owner, pioneer and the servant of this new Middle East."

Any use?

 

[Patteran]

Two more links from today - a piece by Bloomsberg commentator Josh Rogin about the discussions around a buffer/no fly zone (that will presumably destroy the cantons), & a US-centric 'what are we going to do about Syria?' piece from the New Yorker that contains some useful statistics & insider quotes.

(edited to correct an odd typo)

 

[coley]

coley, I'm learning on my feet, I make no pretence to be an expert. I get information & analysis from this thread & other online resources. Here's the three salient points with some links from a variety of (mostly reactionary) perspectives, with a heavy disclaimer - I'm supposed to be working, I just had a quick go on the google & some of the links may be rotten nonsense.

1) Erdogan's cordial arrangement with Assad goes back to 2008 - a sample here. The switch to support for the opposition appears pragmatic & opportunistic - Assad's brutal response to the revolution will have been received negatively by Turkish citizens, & events in Egypt & Libya could have suggested Assad would fall. Interesting quote from Erdogan - 'We cannot be impartial and those who are impartial are eliminated'. (picture shows Erdogan using a Muslim Brotherhood hand sign)

2) Erdogan's support for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, & the similarities between his party & the muslim brotherhood are well documented - a sample here about general Turkish support for MB, here for Turkish support/hosting of the MB-founded Syrian National Council (in exile).

3) The idea of a regional 'Sunni Crescent', running from Cairo to Ankara via Gaza, a counterpoint to Iranian-Shia Crescent influence, has been discussed widely. Seymour Hersh discusses it as far back as 2007 - and labels it as a US-led/supported plan to support its allies Saudi & Israel who view Iran as an existential threat. There's tension within this grouping as feudal theocracy Saudi fears Turkish support for the (quasi) democratic Muslim Brotherhood. Erdogan & his influential Foreign Minister Davutoglu feature in most references to the Sunni Crescent, including this from influential neo-con/neo-liberal magazine The National Interest -

"A new Middle East is about to be born," Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently stated before the Turkish parliament that "we will be the owner, pioneer and the servant of this new Middle East."

Any use?

Ta, really informative, will keep me occupied for a few days, will be interesting to find out where the Kurds are going to fit into this new grouping?

 

[TomUS]

One of al-Baghdidi's wives & sons have been grabbed by the Lebanese.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...my-detains-wife-of-ISIS-leader-Baghdadi-.html

 

[butchersapron]

I thought Patrick Cockburn of the Indy was better than the rest?
And Robert Fisk is sometimes bonkers but he lives in Lebanon and can be illuminating.

Here's a very interesting piece on exactly this:

Black Holes and Media Missionaries

Glass is not even the worst of them. The Independent’s celebrated foreign correspondent Robert Fisk, who has also chosen to embed with the regime, reported shortly after the chemical attack, that “information is now circulating in the city”—furnished by the Russians and corroborated by “a former Special Forces officer” operating with the Syrian Army’s 4th Division, who is “considered a reliable source” (by whom?)—that Assad wasn’t responsible for the attack. Fisk’s reliable source—the regime—tells him that it was indeed the rebels that were responsible for the attack.

Fisk’s credulity is matched by his ethics. In August 2012, after a massacre in Daraya had left between 400-500 people, Fisk rode a Syrian Army armoured personnel carrier into the city to interview survivors and concluded that it was “armed insurgents rather than Syrian troops” that were responsible for the massacre. It somehow did not occur to this veteran journalist that people might not be very forthcoming being interviewed by a journalist “in the company of armed Syrian forces”. Indeed, Human Rights Watch came to very different conclusions after its investigation into the massacre. And when the veteran war correspondent Janine di Giovanni visited the town unaccompanied by regime troops, she received detailed testimony on how the Syrian military had carried out the massacre.

On page 76 of his book, he writes: “I witnessed JAN forces storm a housing complex by advancing through a drainage pipe which came out behind government lines, where they proceeded to kill Alawites and Christians.”

If he witnessed this, then it would be major scoop. Since other than the regime, the only source to make this claim was the Russian state broadcaster RT. However, RT had used fake pictures to support its claim. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have found no evidence of this alleged massacre.

However, when one looks at Cockburn’s original report on the incident in his January 28, 2014 column for The Independent, he attributes the story about rebels arriving through drainage pipes to “a Syrian soldier, who gave his name as Abu Ali”. In that version, Cockburn wasn’t a witness.

 

[Patteran]

Here's a very interesting piece on exactly this:

Black Holes and Media Missionaries

Really good piece, that - a reminder that all foreign correspondents are embedded in networks & ideologies, even when they're not wearing US or Damascus-issue flak jackets.

 

[Patteran]

Almost immediately the Turkish prime minister insisted that there would be no more Peshmerga convoys allowed through turkey,adding the caveat that none had been sort.

150 new Peshmerga arrive

This is being reported tonight, possibly one-in, one-out replacements for the initial unit. No PKK flag waving grand entrance this time.

(edited because of weird formatting)

 

[DaveCinzano]

...i simply don't trust him any more.

 

[FNG]

150 new Peshmerga arrive

This is being reported tonight, possibly one-in, one-out replacements for the initial unit. No PKK flag waving grand entrance this time.

(edited because of weird formatting)

Thanks for that, that's a very interesting development makes me wonder if some deal has been struck or if the initial announcement as reported in the Daily Sabah was an attempt to curb their own Kurdish citizens aspirations and appease their own anti Kurdish militia mobs.

In the last week I have noticed a definite softening of the rhetoric coming from Erdogan over the issue of the peace process, After the Kobani convoy Ergodan was on a round robin tour of Europe essentially stressing the PKK as a terrorist organisation, then he attempted to marginalise the PKKs part in the ongoing peace process saying a deal could be struck with the HDP without their involvement. This was days after the last HDP negotiated peace plan had been delivered to Occalan for ratification had collapsed almost immediately. This week Erdogan was saying a deal could be done with Occalan and the PKK within six months, a surprising about turn under the cirumstances but one that reflects the real politik

The low key entrance makes sense for both sides, obviously the Turks would want to keep a cap on quasi political rallys to lower intra community tensions for the Kurds high turnouts would increase the risk of IEDs/Suicide bombers concealed in the crowd.

 

[butchersapron]

**

 

[coley]

150 new Peshmerga arrive

This is being reported tonight, possibly one-in, one-out replacements for the initial unit. No PKK flag waving grand entrance this time.

(edited because of weird formatting)

Looking at some of the twitter links,seems you are right replacements, rather than additional reinforcements.

 

[butchersapron]

This is getting bogged down nasty. Wish i had a link to something interesting or hopeful. I don't. ISIS are learning to be hardy. As noted above - winter comes.

 

[J Ed]

Letter From French Jihadist in Syria to His Parents: ‘They make me Wash Clothes. I Want to Come Back Home”

“I’ve have done nothing substantial in 3 months except give out clothes and distribute food,” said one in the letter, who wanted to return home. “I assist in cleaning the weapons and pick up the dead bodies from the front. Winter has just arrived. It has begun to take toll on me.”Another French jihadist wrote: “I’m stuck. I’m fed of washing the clothes.”

Other French Jihadist expressed his despair as he missed the luxurious and comfortable life in France as life was miserable in ISIS quarters.

He said in the letter, “I’m fed up. My iPod doesn’t work anymore here. I want to escape from in here.”Another French Jihadist expressed his fear: “They want to send me to the front, but I don’t know Sh** about fighting.”

Jihadists expressed their concerns about the nationality of their child who was born in Syria in ISIS quarters and lose chance of getting French recognition for their child.

The Le Figaro further informed that numerous French Jihadists informed about their plans to escape the ISIS boundaries and head back towards the home. One Frenchman was brutally beheaded when he requested the head of ISIS to allow him to return back home as he had family and parents to look after for.

Pathetic spoilt kids

 

[FNG]

here's a bit of winter cheer butchers, Kurds capture major ISIS arsenal and six buildings close to Security Square http://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/news/662096?
sounds like a fairly substantial sudden collapse if ISIS failed to boobytrap the area, haul includes guns,RPG launchers and vast quantities of machine gun ammunition.

 

[kebabking]

This is getting bogged down nasty. Wish i had a link to something interesting or hopeful. I don't. ISIS are learning to be hardy. As noted above - winter comes.

i wouldn't be so despondant - the important thing is that IS have very publicly been stopped in their tracks and given a right shoeing in the process. they aren't finished yet (and yes, there is a propaganda benefit in 'we've not been defeated yet'), but the direction of travel is obvious for all to see. this is not going to end in IS holding a large swaithe of territory and building their caliphate within it...

add to this - as you say, winter is coming, and winter in that part of the world is not 3 months on the Costa del Sol, it is frighteningly cold, horribly windy, and about as vile a place to be living out of doors as your whining, dissapointed-he's-not-beheading-westerners-and raping slave-girls Jihadi tourist will be able to imagine.

the chap mentioned in the piece posted by J Ed is not the first to whine about the realities, and as winter sets in he won't be the last. so much of IS attraction was based on their rather dashing ride through the desert - living in a covered trench with 5 other blokes, with 6 inches of freezing cold water at the bottom, and shitting in a bucket while waiting to be bombed by aircraft that can see the heat your meagre fire gives off is not glamourous. it will lose its appeal pretty quickly.

 

[Patteran]

But the longer they're dug in, demoralised or not, the longer the delay for returning refugees, to starting the rebuilding process, to getting basic necessities like farming restarted. And it potentially means that the proposed buffer zone gets a head start imposing itself on an empty ruin, not an independent canton. Does anyone know how the refugees are surviving? Mixture of UN, Turkey aid & Kurdish political/community support, I suppose. The lack of self-sufficiency combined with a hard winter in a tent city on the edge of a war zone is gonna be hard for them, too. Rotten situation.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Does anyone know how the refugees are surviving? Mixture of UN, Turkey aid & Kurdish political/community support, I suppose.

UN food vouchers for Syrian refugees are being withdrawn due to lack of funding.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/01/syrian-refugees-food-crisis-un-world-programme

Fighting a war ostensibly for the good of the Syrian people will be a bit of a waste of time if a large chunk of the Syrian population starves to death. But then I guess hungry little refugee kids don't show up to arms fairs with fancy presentations to bid for their share of the cash so that's their tough shit.

 

[kebabking]

...Rotten situation.

certainly is - i don't doubt most here would prefer that all of IS had been cold in the ground for 3 months and folk were just able to get on with their already difficult lives, but the situation, while not going as fast as we might want, is still going on the right direction.

more aircraft on station, aircraft based closer, perhaps looser ROE's, more ground weapon availability for local forces, and lets be straight up, outside ground forces would help...

 

[Patteran]

The more paranoid online suggest that the airstrikes were held back deliberately until Daesh were entrenched in & around Kobani, allowing both IS & the revolutionary cantons to be dulled. I've not seen enough evidence of long-term strategic planning to feel this is credible - is it credible?

Talking of tent cities - filmed report from Swedish-owned Your Middle East interviewing Yezidi refugees. They're furious with the Peshmerga for abandoning them, grateful to the YPG & PKK for rescuing a claimed (and astonishing) 100,000 people from Sinjar. 'If PKK, YPG and YPJ forces did not come to our aid, not even one Yezidi of Sinjar would be alive today'.

 

[coley]

Letter From French Jihadist in Syria to His Parents: ‘They make me Wash Clothes. I Want to Come Back Home”



Pathetic spoilt kids

Bit worrying in that it seems IS have developed excellent deployment skills?