Political polling

[Spanky Longhorn]

With an incumbent Tory government and a national election campaign going on? Nah.

Grimsby is fucked, Mitchell is that old rightwing Labour that is not far off UKIP on some social issues, or at least not far off what some former Labour voters seem to have abandoned the party to find elsewhere, Labour did noting visible really for the area between 97 and 2010 except preside over further long term decline, and the council (North East Lincolnshire) has not been Labour since it was formed IIRC

I don't think UKIP will win it, but a very close second is extremely likely

 

[brogdale]

YG's UKIP number reaches another record high today going from yesterday's 18% to 19% today.

The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a record low for this parliament.

Of course the purples are enjoying the aftermath of their by election successes a week ago and as is being widely pointed the SDP was doing this in the early 80s only to fade at GE1983.

I'm really not very convinced that drawing parallels with the 'product life-cycle' of the SDP yields much of value; many of the specifics and the context are so different.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's new marginals today at 11am.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Grimsby is fucked, Mitchell is that old rightwing Labour that is not far off UKIP on some social issues, or at least not far off what some former Labour voters seem to have abandoned the party to find elsewhere, Labour did noting visible really for the area between 97 and 2010 except preside over further long term decline, and the council (North East Lincolnshire) has not been Labour since it was formed IIRC

I don't think UKIP will win it, but a very close second is extremely likely

Agreed to all that. But... after 13 years of (a) being the government that abandoned the place (b) not campaigning because it was a safe seat (c) having Austin Mitchell as their candidate ... their vote still held up sufficiently to win the seat. In a seat where that 22% Lib Dem vote is going to completely collapse it'd be a surprise if Lab's vote didn't go up at least 5-7% and in the context of a national election with Cameron on the tv all the time a solid percentage of those Tories are still going to vote Tory.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's new marginals today at 11am.

To cut to the chase...

....the Conservatives can afford to lose no more than 21 seats to Labour at the general election if they are to remain the largest party. Unfortunately for them, we have already identified 29 seats currently held by the Conservatives that would fall to Labour if my poll results were repeated at an election.

In other words, Labour would become the largest party if results in the seats I have already polled turned into results on election day – and there could well be more to come: while my polling has moved into seats with bigger Tory majorities I have not yet come to the “bite point” at which the potential losses end and Conservative seats consistently start to stay blue.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's sophisticated polling is beginning to undermine the meme that UKIP's national polling dissipates when voters are asked to consider their own specific constituency....

Looks like a 1 to 3 % decline at most.

 

[brogdale]

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 24m24 minutes ago
No doubt Conservative Party internal polling will show a Conservative overall majority #comfortpolling

 

[treelover]

European stock markets tumble again on global growth fears – business live

http://www.theguardian.com/business...amid-growth-and-ebola-fears#start-of-comments

If there is another 'correction' on the way?, how would this impact on Uk economy and of course, Tory election prospects?

 

[Lo Siento.]

If there is another 'correction' on the way?, how would this impact on Uk economy and of course, Tory election prospects?

Given that they've spent that last 4-5 years pretending that the last recession and resultant increase in government debt and deficit was a result of Gordon Brown's particular incompetence and largesse, it'd have to be fatal, surely?

 

[J Ed]

Given that they've spent that last 4-5 years pretending that the last recession and resultant increase in government debt and deficit was a result of Gordon Brown's particular incompetence and largesse, it'd have to be fatal, surely?

If it comes in June they'll no doubt repeat the trope ffs

 

[brogdale]

ComRes' monthly national for the Indy is causing a bit of a stir tonight, not for the headline numbers, but for the supplementary poll that included a prompt for UKIP as well as the "big" 3.

The topline numbers (UKIP unprompted) were:-

CON 31%(+2), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 19%(nc), GRN 4%(nc).

and with UKIP prompted were:-

CON 29%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 24%, GRN 5%.

Thorough and thoughtful discussion here.

 

[brogdale]

Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

 

[brogdale]

This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intentions are:-
CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%.

 

[brogdale]

Opinium’s fortnightly poll for the Observer tonight has topline figures of:-

CON 33%(+5), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 18%(+1), GRN 4%(nc).

This is the first time that Opinium haven’t shown Labour ahead since March 2012, before the Omnishambles budget.

Yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll that also Labour and the Conservatives equal, but of course, we have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times due tonight or tomorrow morning…

....but, even in these times of multi-party flux, for the tories to secure the slimmest majority they would have to reverse the two main party differential gap shown on the extreme left of this graph...

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Today's level showing could well be a MOE thing but that graph shows clear as day that the medium term trend is for conservatives unchanged over 2 years, labour slowly downwards.

Where's the damage to the Tories from every UKIP good result? The local elections, the euros, Clacton?

 

[brogdale]

Today's level showing could well be a MOE thing but that graph shows clear as day that the medium term trend is for conservatives unchanged over 2 years, labour slowly downwards.

Where's the damage to the Tories from every UKIP good result? The local elections, the euros, Clacton?

Uniform swing based on national polling and UKIP's "guerrilla" tactics in challenging tory held seats are two different things.

 

[brogdale]

....the ComRes phone poll for the Indy which has:-

CON 30 (+1), LAB 30 (-5), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 19 (+4), GRN (4=)

The UKIP figure is a high for ComRes phone polls and the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last general election.

1. 
   Polls that are level pegging represent a 3.5% CON-LAB swing and mean, if applied on a uniform swing basis, that the party would lose seats. The Tories need a margin of 6% to ensure that they stop losing seats to LAB

 

[William of Walworth]

brogdale : Am I well out of date and over-suspicious about polls, to be sceptical about phone polls?

(Similarly about online ones? )

 

[brogdale]

brogdale : Am I well out of date and over-suspicious about polls, to be sceptical about phone polls?

(Similarly about online ones? )

Always as well to be sceptical about polling and "mode effect", especially in such an 'odd' period of flux and transition to a multi-party system. That said, other polls, published yesterday, showed parity or near parity between the big 2.

 

[William of Walworth]

brogdale

Wondering to what extent current state of the parties polls are underestimating how polarised reaction to UKIP has been ('polarised' aka Marmite -- you'll remember me raising this a little while back) . As shown across various general 'reaction to parties' polls.

 

[brogdale]

brogdale

Wondering to what extent current state of the parties polls are underestimating how polarised reaction to UKIP has been ('polarised' aka Marmite -- you'll remember me raising this a little while back) . As shown across various general 'reaction to parties' polls.

I've not seen anything very recently, but "The Economist" did this (not very good) piece with some graphics, and back in Sept. Ipsos MORI did some fieldwork around such questions...

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/research...pular-party-but-their-leader-lags-behind.aspx

 

[brogdale]

This is the one that's getting all the headlines...possibly because it coincided with the decision from the state broadcaster to deny the Greens a place in the televised debate....

YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of:-

LAB 34%, CON 31%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% LDEM 6%,.

The Labour lead of three points is actually larger than recent YouGov polls and for the first time in a YouGov poll the Green party are ahead of the Liberal Democrats (Lord Ashcroft’s polls have shown the same a couple of times). Both findings are well within the margin of error so don’t get too excited – recent YouGov polls suggest the underlying picture is that Labour have a wafer thin lead over the Tories for first place, and the Lib Dems have a wafer thin lead over the Greens for fourth place.

As ever, wise words of caution from Anthony.

 

[brogdale]

Jock Shocker for NuLab...

SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI
October 30th, 2014
LAB could be down to just 4 seats

SNP at 52% in Scotland according to new Ipsos-MORI poll:-

SNP 52% LAB 23% CON 10% GRN 6% LD 6%

'kinnel!

{Also posted in UKIP thread}

 

[butchersapron]

Well, blows my ref not going to hit labour theory away - for now.

 

[brogdale]

for now.

Yes, as ever, an important rider....but pretty shocking stuff...

Slight exaggeration there...they'd be left with 4 Scot/Westminster seats according to electoral calculus...

 

[danny la rouge]

In reality some of those seats are going to be hard to shift. But I'd love to have a bug in Scottish Labour HQ this afternoon.

 

[brogdale]

In reality some of those seats are going to be hard to shift. But I'd love to have a bug in Scottish Labour HQ this afternoon.

Yep and yep!

But we're looking at such extraordinary polling that the psephos can't even apply uniform swing analysis...

I don’t think swingometers offer much guidance in the case of really extreme results (a uniform swing would be mathematically impossible on this results – for example, there are about 9 seats in Scotland where Labour got less than 19% in 2010, so couldn’t lose 19% this time round. The same applies in many seats for the Liberal Democrats) but for the record on a uniform swing these figures would result in the SNP winning all but two seats in Scotland.

 

[brogdale]

Lol

 

[butchersapron]

I may start a thread on this -left wingers, are you voting and joining the nationalist?
(feel free to do before me, not happening tonight)

 

[danny la rouge]

I may start a thread on this -left wingers, are you voting and joining the nationalist?
(feel free to do before me, not happening tonight)

There's already a thread. (I'm on my phone atm, or I'd track it down).