A process which starts, AIUI, by assigning a "prior probability" of locating it.
Which would be rather small?
This is a statistics joke. Second in a week. Not to be taken too seriously when read as plain English.
Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace
- Thread starter treefrog
- Start date
A process which starts, AIUI, by assigning a "prior probability" of locating it.
Which would be rather small?
This is a statistics joke. Second in a week. Not to be taken too seriously when read as plain English.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Indy going with eye-witness reports of low flying jet on day of disappearance from island of Kudahuvadhoo. FWIW.
Lazy Llama
Suburban robots that monitor reality
Same story from 11 months ago - http://www.urban75.net/forums/threa...es-without-trace.321482/page-54#post-13108797
2hats
Dust.
Right thread this time...
(From Reuters): Government ministers from Australia, China and Malaysia have announced that if no sign of any wreckage is found by the completion of the current search (end of this May) then the search will be extended for up to a year at a cost of around AU$50 million:
(From Reuters): Government ministers from Australia, China and Malaysia have announced that if no sign of any wreckage is found by the completion of the current search (end of this May) then the search will be extended for up to a year at a cost of around AU$50 million:
2hats
Dust.
Interesting to note (hasn't been mentioned on the thread before) the LANL analysis of hydroacoustic data from CTBT monitoring stations which points to a possible signal of interest (separate from various Antarctic ice event 'noise') that could be related to the aircraft impact with ocean and is not inconsistent with a position on the final arc, just outside the ATSB search area (covered thus far).
That position is in a similar area to those arrived at via a number of other calculations, hypotheses and (acoustic, seismic) analyses - see the cluster of locations below, SW of the search area covered to date:
It will be interesting to see if the ATSB extend the 2015/2016 search area westwards to encompass these.
Also worth noting the detail of the imagery from the autonomous underwater vehicle that is used to investigate areas of interest flagged up by sonar. Recently it identified a previously unknown shipwreck at around 3900m depth near the 7th arc after being dispatched to examine what were thought to be suspiciously artificial looking clusters of sonar contacts. This may be the wreck of a 19th century merchant sailing ship (anchor clearly visible on the seabed in the first image, what is thought to be coal, for an auxiliary steam engine, scattered around on the seabed in the third image):
That position is in a similar area to those arrived at via a number of other calculations, hypotheses and (acoustic, seismic) analyses - see the cluster of locations below, SW of the search area covered to date:
It will be interesting to see if the ATSB extend the 2015/2016 search area westwards to encompass these.
Also worth noting the detail of the imagery from the autonomous underwater vehicle that is used to investigate areas of interest flagged up by sonar. Recently it identified a previously unknown shipwreck at around 3900m depth near the 7th arc after being dispatched to examine what were thought to be suspiciously artificial looking clusters of sonar contacts. This may be the wreck of a 19th century merchant sailing ship (anchor clearly visible on the seabed in the first image, what is thought to be coal, for an auxiliary steam engine, scattered around on the seabed in the third image):
2hats
Dust.
The Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC) have stated that, with reference to the expansion of the original ocean floor search area (purple plus red boxes in the first image) from 60000 sq km to 120000 sq km (red hatched area in the second image), "in the absence of credible new information that leads to the identification of a specific location of the aircraft, Governments* have agreed that there will be no further [subsequent] expansion of the search area." In other words, once an additional 60000 sq km have been examined, making 120000 sq km area in total, the search will end.
* Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments.
* Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments.
Interesting to note (hasn't been mentioned on the thread before) the LANL analysis of hydroacoustic data from CTBT monitoring stations which points to a possible signal of interest (separate from various Antarctic ice event 'noise') that could be related to the aircraft impact with ocean and is not inconsistent with a position on the final arc, just outside the ATSB search area (covered thus far).
That position is in a similar area to those arrived at via a number of other calculations, hypotheses and (acoustic, seismic) analyses - see the cluster of locations below, SW of the search area covered to date:
It will be interesting to see if the ATSB extend the 2015/2016 search area westwards to encompass these.
Also worth noting the detail of the imagery from the autonomous underwater vehicle that is used to investigate areas of interest flagged up by sonar. Recently it identified a previously unknown shipwreck at around 3900m depth near the 7th arc after being dispatched to examine what were thought to be suspiciously artificial looking clusters of sonar contacts. This may be the wreck of a 19th century merchant sailing ship (anchor clearly visible on the seabed in the first image, what is thought to be coal, for an auxiliary steam engine, scattered around on the seabed in the third image):
Not really relevant to MH370, but those images are stunning, what with the anchor and what appears to be the ship's bell in the middle pic. I'd hazard a guess that some of the long thin objects are iron hull fastenings. My guess is that Mike McCarthy's right and it's a nineteenth-century wooden sailing ship with a steam 'donkey' engine, part of which could conceivably be the big lump in the right-hand picture. There doesn't look to be enough coal for it to be cargo. It'd be fascinating to try and identify the ship, but probably a bit of a needle-in-a-haystack job. 2hats roughly where is this? (sorry, too lazy to try and work it out myself!)
2hats
Dust.
The only public information appears to be "12 nautical miles to the east of the 7th arc" and confined inside the purple box indicated in the post above (based on the fact it was located by the ship Fugro Equator). Fugro did state that "imagery will be provided to expert marine archaeologists for possible identification", which would presumably include the location.
Ah, okay. I thought there was more info out there I either hadn't spotted or didn't understand! Sounds to me as if the archaeologists concerned will be from the West Australian Maritime Museum, given that Mike McCarthy, who's quoted in some of the news reports, is based there.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
MH370: wreckage found on Reunion 'matches Malaysia Airlines flight'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Reunion-matches-Malaysia-Airlines-flight.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Reunion-matches-Malaysia-Airlines-flight.html
2hats
Dust.
NBC in the US are reporting Boeing officials as stating that they believe it to be from MH370 as those flaperons would be the only ones that they can not account for.
The beeb are also reporting "unnamed US officials are saying" but this page is saying it's a French guys blog and with help he has nailed it:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11489212
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11489212
5t3IIa
Registered User
Finally!! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33707445
Today prog currently needling guy about serial numbers. Is it it??
Today prog currently needling guy about serial numbers. Is it it??
5t3IIa
Registered User
Flaperons is a good word
They don't ever just fall off, do they?La la la I'm excited.
Edit: 'account for'? They can't account for any of it, can they?
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
It's like the manufacturer trying to make the word 'flap' sound all sciencey - 'aha, let's call it a flaperon!'.Flaperons is a good word
La la la I'm excited.
bi0boy
Power User
maomao
普費斯
It's a cross between a flap and an aileron.It's like the manufacturer trying to make the word 'flap' sound all sciencey - 'aha, let's call it a flaperon!'.
They mean they can account for all the 777 flaperons in the world except for the ones off MH370 so they reckon this must be from that plane.
5t3IIa
Registered User
Oh goody
Every news article I read about this assumes I know where La Reunion island is. I feel like a right idiot 
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i think they'll be using data younger than 18 years,Tracing the flaperon backwards might not be that easy:
2hats
Dust.
A more relevant modelling (of the evolution of the positions of debris from the suspected crash area itself over the time interval involved), performed by oceanographers last year, is:
This debris and any other could be used as bayesian priors to constrain the underwater search area.
5t3IIa
Registered User
It's probably hidden under a crumb of fruitcake on your atlas.Every news article I read about this assumes I know where La Reunion island is. I feel like a right idiot
bi0boy
Power User
Well yes, but it just gives you an idea that surface debris doesn't just follow the big arrows on ocean current diagrams.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
2hats
Dust.
A local Air Austral mechanic has examined the debris with French military officials and is "99.9% certain" it is from a 777. An identifying number, now reported as '657-BB', was quoted by him. Looking in the Boeing 777 maintenance manual, this is an access panel marked on a right wing flaperon:
An initial assessment of the crustaceans affixed to the debris (Lepas Anatifera) by a French naval marine biologist, concludes that, considering their growth rate they have been there for about a year, which strongly pins the part to MH370.
A local (Reunion) journalist has just reported that well weathered fragments of what might be some luggage have been found in the same area as the aircraft debris.
An initial assessment of the crustaceans affixed to the debris (Lepas Anatifera) by a French naval marine biologist, concludes that, considering their growth rate they have been there for about a year, which strongly pins the part to MH370.
A local (Reunion) journalist has just reported that well weathered fragments of what might be some luggage have been found in the same area as the aircraft debris.
Similar threads
